中辉农产品观点-20251208

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish Dominance: Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, soybean oil, cotton [1] - Bearish Dominance: Red dates, live pigs [1] - Range - bound: Rapeseed oil [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Soybean Meal: Short - term bullish oscillations. Although the current supply is sufficient, the expected decrease in weekly crushing volume may relieve supply pressure. Wait for the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) December report and follow the progress of South American soybean planting weather [1][3]. - Rapeseed Meal: Short - term bullish oscillations. The spot market is inactive, but due to weather premium speculation on the soybean meal side and low rapeseed import expectations, the far - month contracts are expected to be bullish. Pay attention to the USDA December report and China - Canada trade progress [1][6]. - Palm Oil: Expected to stop falling in stages. Although there is a high probability of inventory accumulation in November in Malaysia, factors such as floods in Southeast Asia and increased Indian purchases have boosted market sentiment. Be cautious when chasing long at high levels and look for opportunities to go long on dips after adjustments [1][8]. - Soybean Oil: Short - term bullish oscillations. The domestic inventory has slightly decreased but is still higher than the five - year average. Follow the South American soybean weather and treat it as a range - bound market this week [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: Range - bound. The fundamentals are strong, but the spot trading is sluggish. It is advisable to focus on far - month contracts when going long. Pay attention to the import situation of Australian and Russian rapeseed and rapeseed oil [1]. - Cotton: Cautiously bullish. Globally, the market is more focused on weather. Domestically, new cotton sales are progressing quickly, and the cost support is strengthening. However, there are still pressures from high inventory and hedging. Consider going long on dips and look for medium - to - long - term recovery opportunities [1][12]. - Red Dates: Bearish oscillations. With the peak of new product listings and the arrival of the consumption season, the market is bearish overall. However, since most of the price premiums from speculation on production cuts have been squeezed out, avoid excessive short - selling and maintain short - term observation [1][14]. - Live Pigs: Bearish oscillations. In December, the supply pressure is high, and it is difficult to support the spot price. For the near - month 01 contract, focus on short - selling opportunities. The 03 contract is also bearish, and the short - term long - buying opportunities for 09 and 11 contracts can be considered after the supply pressure is released [1][17]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - Inventory: As of November 28, 2025, national port soybean inventory was 957.6 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 15.10 million tons; 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 733.96 million tons, a 2.65% increase from last week; and the soybean meal inventory was 120.32 million tons, a 4.49% increase from last week [3]. - Price: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2821 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.42% from the previous day; the national average spot price was 3111.43 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.05% [2]. - Spread: The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 660 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. Rapeseed Meal - Inventory: As of November 28, the coastal area's main oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 0 tons, and the rapeseed meal inventory was 0.01 tons, both unchanged from last week [6]. - Price: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2377 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.86% from the previous day; the national average spot price was 2474.74 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.76% [4]. - Spread: The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was 660 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. Palm Oil - Inventory: As of November 28, 2025, the national key area's palm oil commercial inventory was 65.35 million tons, a 2.04% decrease from last week [7]. - Price: The futures price of the main contract closed at 8770 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.20% from the previous day; the national average price was 8798 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.69% [7]. - Export: In November 2025, Malaysia's palm oil export volume decreased compared with the previous month [8]. Cotton - Global Situation: In the US, new cotton harvesting is nearing completion, but precipitation in late November was unfavorable for the harvest. In India, new cotton arrivals are stable, but rainfall in late November affected MSP purchases. In Brazil, the 2025 cotton processing progress is 73.87%, and the 2026 new cotton planting has started in non - main producing areas [10]. - Domestic Situation: New cotton picking is basically completed, and the inspection volume exceeds 474 million tons. The sales progress is fast, and the cost of new - season lint is locked at 14600 - 15000 yuan/ton. The national commercial inventory has increased to 446 million tons [11]. - Price: The futures price of the main contract (CF2601) closed at 13750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.29% from the previous day; the CCIndex (3218B) spot price was 15022 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.16% [9]. Red Dates - Supply: The acquisition in some areas is completed, and the acquisition progress in other areas is about 80%. The acquisition price is showing a weak trend [14]. - Inventory: The physical inventory of 36 sample points this week was 13910 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3062 tons, but lower than the same period last year [14]. - Price: The futures prices of contracts such as CJ2601 and CJ2603 have increased to varying degrees, while most spot prices remain stable [13]. Live Pigs - Supply: In December, the planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises has increased by 3.2%. The overall supply pressure is high, but the long - term supply may decrease as the number of fertile sows has decreased [16][17]. - Demand: The demand has marginally improved, with an increase in pork sales, but the slaughter profit has decreased [15][17]. - Price: The futures price of the main contract (Ih2601) remained unchanged at 11385 yuan/ton, and the national average spot price of live pigs was 11540 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.17% [15].