铜牛势不可挡，续创历史新高：沪铜周报-20251208

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Group 2: Core Viewpoints - LME copper warrant cancellation triggers the expectation of a soft squeeze, there is a shortage of copper inventory in non - US regions. With the Fed likely to cut interest rates in December and China's Politburo meeting approaching, copper has hit a record high. It is recommended to move the stop - profit for long positions and try to go long on dips. In the long term, copper is still favored [6]. - In the short term, copper has refreshed its historical high again, with increased high - level volatility. Long - position holders have accumulated large profits. It is advisable to gradually move the stop - profit, avoid blindly chasing the high, and beware of the risk of a high - level pullback after the macro positive factors are exhausted. For industrial selling hedging, the hedging ratio should be flexibly reduced, and inventory should be sold off quickly. For industrial buying hedging, positions should be built on dips according to production orders. In the long - term, due to copper being an important strategic resource in the China - US game and a substitute for precious metals in asset allocation, with the tight copper concentrate supply and the explosion of green copper demand, copper is still promising. The short - term focus range for Shanghai copper is 【88000, 98000】 yuan/ton, and for LME copper is 【11000, 12000】 US dollars/ton [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Viewpoint Summary - The Fed is almost certain to cut interest rates in December, the US dollar is weakening, and copper prices are soaring. The US economic data shows signs of weakness, such as the decline in the ISM manufacturing PMI, the reduction in private - sector employment in the ADP data, and the cooling of the labor market. The Fed's interest - rate cut probability is high, and the dollar index has declined [8][10]. - The pre - heating of the December Politburo meeting in China has increased market risk appetite. The macro - economy shows signs of improvement in foreign demand, moderate recovery in domestic demand, and stable policy expectations. The manufacturing PMI has slightly increased, and price indicators have shown a mild recovery. Policy support has continued, and the market is looking forward to the Politburo meeting's economic tone for the next year [11][13]. - In the long run, copper is positively correlated with the Nasdaq index, gold, and crude oil, and negatively correlated with US Treasury yields. In 2025, the gold - copper ratio has been rising, and copper still has room for a supplementary increase [16]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis US Macroeconomy - The US 11 - month ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.2, lower than the previous value and the expected value, and has been below the 50 boom - bust line for nine consecutive months. The ADP "small non - farm" data in December showed a decrease of 32,000 private - sector jobs in November, the largest decline since March 2023. The labor market has cooled, with the unemployment rate of 20 - 24 - year - old college graduates rising to 8.5%. The Fed's probability of cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is considered "almost certain", and the probability of cumulative interest - rate cuts in January 2026 is 64%. The dollar index fell 0.38% on a weekly basis as of December 4 [10]. Chinese Macroeconomy - China's macro - economy in December showed a trend of improving foreign demand, moderate domestic - demand recovery, and stable policy expectations. The manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 49.2%, and the new export - order index rebounded by 1.7 percentage points to 47.6%. The CPI turned positive year - on - year in October, the core CPI rose to 1.2%, and the PPI turned positive month - on - month. Fiscal and industrial policies continued to be strong, and the market's risk appetite increased. The market is looking forward to the Politburo meeting in mid - December to set the economic tone for the next year [13]. 3. Supply - and - Demand Analysis Supply - Copper Concentrate Supply: In 2025, many large - scale copper mines globally had unexpected production cuts and shutdowns. The global copper concentrate supply is in a continuous tight situation. The CSPT group reached a consensus on reducing the production load of copper mines, resisting unreasonable pricing, and preventing vicious competition. The copper concentrate TC has been running at a low level, with the latest at - 42.7 US dollars/ton, a month - on - month decline of 0.55 US dollars/ton. The global refined copper market is expected to have a supply gap of about 150,000 tons in 2026 [46][55]. - Electrolytic Copper Production: In November, the domestic copper - smelting start - up rate was 82.29%, and the electrolytic copper output increased by 11,500 tons month - on - month to 1.1031 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.05% and a year - on - year increase of 9.75%. The import of refined copper in October decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The supply of scrap copper in the domestic market is tight, and the refined - scrap copper price difference has widened to 5,510 yuan/ton as of December 5, the highest since May 2024 [47]. Demand - Positive Factors: Green copper demand is booming, with the average copper consumption in renewable energy systems being 8 - 12 times that of traditional power - generation systems. In October, the wholesale sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China increased by 19.3% year - on - year. The year - end domestic power - grid bidding work is actively carried out, and power investment maintains resilience. The market expects the US power demand to grow by 60% in 2026, which will stimulate overseas copper demand [88]. - Negative Factors: High copper prices have a significant inhibitory effect on demand. The consumption has entered the off - season, and the operating rates of mid - and downstream enterprises have declined. The real - estate industry at the terminal is still in a difficult situation. The COMEX copper inventory has accumulated to a high level, forming a potential "inventory dam" [25]. 4. Summary and Outlook - Macro - aspect: The Fed's probability of cutting interest rates in December is nearly 90%, and the market expects continuous monetary easing in 2026. China's manufacturing PMI has improved, and with the approaching of the Politburo meeting, the market's expectation of policy stimulus has increased. The monetary policies of China and the US may resonate, releasing more market liquidity. Copper's strategic value and price center will rise steadily [109]. - Fundamentals: The global copper - concentrate supply remains tight, and the CSPT group's anti - involution measures have been implemented. The international refined - copper market is expected to have a supply gap in 2026. The domestic electrolytic copper output in November was slightly higher than expected, and the refined - scrap copper price difference has widened [110]. - Inventory: Domestic social inventory and SHFE copper inventory have decreased, while LME copper inventory is at a certain level, and COMEX copper inventory has accumulated. The large increase in LME copper warrant cancellations has triggered concerns about a soft squeeze in non - US copper inventory. The US may introduce copper - import trade - restriction measures, and the US has become a "black hole" for global copper inventory [111]. - Terminal Demand: Although the traditional real - estate and infrastructure sectors are weak, the demand for copper in green fields such as photovoltaics, wind power, and electric vehicles is strong, providing structural support. The US power - grid reconstruction and the construction of data - centers are expected to stimulate overseas copper demand [111]. - Strategy: In the short term, it is recommended to move the stop - profit for long positions and avoid chasing the high. Industrial selling - hedging should reduce the hedging ratio, and industrial buying - hedging should build positions on dips. In the long term, copper is still favored. The short - term focus range for Shanghai copper is 【88000, 98000】 yuan/ton, and for LME copper is 【11000, 12000】 US dollars/ton [112].