中辉有色观点-20251208

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long - term hold [1] - Silver: Long - term hold [1] - Copper: Long - term hold [1] - Zinc: Rebound (short - term), rebound and sell on rallies (long - term) [1] - Lead: Under pressure [1] - Tin: Bullish [1] - Aluminum: Rebound [1] - Nickel: Rebound [1] - Industrial silicon: Rebound [1] - Polysilicon: Sell on rallies [1] - Lithium carbonate: Correction, then go long after stabilizing [1] Core Views - The market is influenced by factors such as US inflation, consumer confidence, central bank gold purchases, geopolitical situations, and major meetings like the Fed's interest - rate meeting and China's Politburo meeting. Different metals have different supply - demand situations and price trends [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - Core view: Long - term hold. The US inflation and consumer confidence data support interest - rate cuts. The People's Bank of China has been increasing its gold holdings for 13 consecutive months. Geopolitical trading has decreased, and gold prices remain high. In the long - term, the geopolitical order is being reshaped, uncertainties persist, and central banks continue to buy gold, so its long - term strategic allocation value remains unchanged [1]. Silver - Core view: Long - term hold. In the short - term, there are issues like delivery squeezes and low inventories. Global large - scale fiscal policies are beneficial for silver in the long - run. However, the high spot premium and soaring volatility of silver futures mean it's not advisable to chase the high in the short - term. In the long - term, there is a supply gap, and with global economic stimulus and loose liquidity, the logic for going long remains [1]. - Basic logic: The core of the recent silver rally is the severe supply - demand imbalance. Its strong industrial attributes (such as in photovoltaic, new - energy vehicles, and computing power) and restricted supply have led to a five - year consecutive supply shortage with a cumulative gap of 23,000 tons, and inventories have dropped to a historically tight level, pushing up prices and leasing costs. The recent short - squeeze is a more direct driver. Trump's tariff policy has caused a large - scale transfer of silver from London inventories to the US, resulting in an extreme shortage of London spot silver, a soaring spot premium, and arbitrage trading, further driving up global silver prices. The US including silver in the critical minerals list has intensified tariff concerns, and similar inventory transfers in Asia have exacerbated regional price differences and the upward trend [2]. - Macro - fundamental: US inflation has been continuously cooling (core PCE in September was 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month), and consumer confidence has recovered (Michigan confidence index in December was 53.3, ending a four - month decline), strengthening the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in December. The White House has called for "prudent rate cuts," and the focus of the December meeting has shifted to potential policy combinations. Besides rate cuts, the Fed may announce a monthly bond - buying program of $45 billion (expected to start in 2026) to ease liquidity pressure, which may mark the restart of balance - sheet expansion [3]. Copper - Core view: Long - term hold. A super - macro week is approaching, with the Fed's interest - rate meeting and China's Politburo meeting imminent. Fundamentally, the cancelled LME copper warehouse receipts have increased sharply, heightening concerns about overseas squeezes. In China, inventories are decreasing during the off - season, and non - US copper inventories may gradually run out. Both LME copper and SHFE copper have continuously reached new highs, with increased volatility at high levels. It's recommended to set a trailing stop for long positions. In the long - term, copper is still bullish [1]. - Industry logic: The global supply of copper concentrates remains tight. The CSPT group has reached a consensus on reducing the production capacity of copper smelting, resisting unreasonable pricing, and preventing vicious competition. The latest copper concentrate TC is - $42.83 per ton. In November, China's electrolytic copper production increased by 11,500 tons month - on - month to 1.1031 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.75%. The increase in copper prices has widened the spread between refined and scrap copper to 5,510 yuan per ton, reaching a new high since May 2024. The arbitrage space of the COMEX - LME price difference has attracted trading giants such as Trafigura and Glencore to actively participate in the large - scale transfer of copper inventories. The US has become a "siphon" for global copper, and non - US copper inventories may gradually dry up, triggering a global copper - buying war [5]. Zinc - Core view: Rebound (short - term), rebound and sell on rallies (long - term). A super - macro week is approaching, the dollar index is weakening, and the macro and sector sentiment is positive. Fundamentally, the processing fees for zinc concentrates continue to decline, and the downstream has entered the consumption off - season, resulting in a weak supply - demand situation overall. In China, inventories are decreasing during the off - season. In the short - term, zinc prices have risen and then fallen. It's recommended to gradually take profits on long positions. In the long - term, supply is expected to increase while demand decreases, so the view of selling on rallies remains [1]. - Industry logic: The processing fees for domestic zinc concentrates have continued to decline due to smelters' winter stockpiling, currently at 1,850 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 250 yuan per ton. Northern mines have reduced production, and there is still room for further decline in zinc concentrate processing fees. In November, China's zinc ingot production decreased by 22,000 tons month - on - month to 595,200 tons. Consumption has entered the off - season, and downstream buyers are making purchases based on rigid demand. The LME zinc inventory has increased to 55,375 tons, further alleviating the risk of a soft squeeze. China's social inventory of zinc ingots has slightly decreased to 1.403 million tons on a month - on - month basis. Zinc's short - term supply - demand is weak, and inventories continue to decline during the off - season. Attention should be paid to the impact of northern winter environmental inspections on the smelting end [8]. Aluminum - Core view: Rebound. It's recommended to take short - term profits on SHFE aluminum and then wait and see, paying attention to the change direction of aluminum ingot social inventories. The main operating range is [21,500 - 22,500] yuan per ton [1]. - Industry logic: For electrolytic aluminum, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut at the end of the year has been further strengthened. Industrially, as the dry season approaches in southwestern China, the costs of aluminum enterprises with a high proportion of hydropower are expected to increase. In December, the latest domestic electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory is 596,000 tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons compared to last week; the inventory of aluminum rods in major domestic consumption areas is 128,000 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons compared to last week. On the demand side, the operating rate of domestic downstream aluminum processing leading enterprises has increased by 0.4 percentage points to 62.3%, and the consumption in the automotive terminal field is fair. For alumina, the shipment of bauxite from Guinea overseas has returned to normal and is expected to continue to increase. Bauxite mines in northern China have gradually resumed production, and the absolute inventory of bauxite remains at a high level. Currently, there are frequent news of maintenance of alumina enterprises in the north, but no large - scale alumina production cuts have been heard. In the short - term, the oversupply pattern in the alumina market continues, and attention should be paid to changes in the overseas bauxite end [12]. Nickel - Core view: Rebound. It's recommended to take profits on nickel and stainless steel at low prices and then wait and see, paying attention to the changes in downstream stainless - steel inventories. The main operating range of nickel is [117,000 - 119,000] yuan per ton [1]. - Industry logic: For nickel, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut at the end of the year has been further strengthened. Industrially, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources plans to lower the nickel production target for 2026, and it is reported that some Indonesian smelters have plans to cut production. In December, the latest LME nickel inventory has climbed to 252,000 tons, and the domestic pure - nickel social inventory is about 52,000 tons. With the expectation of reduced refined - nickel production, the inventory - building speed may slow down. For stainless steel, the terminal consumption field has gradually entered the off - season. According to statistics, the total inventory of the two major stainless - steel markets in Wuxi and Foshan has slightly decreased to 940,000 tons in December, a week - on - week decrease of 1.28%. As stainless - steel prices have weakened significantly, the social inventory has changed from increasing to decreasing again, but there is still a large risk of inventory accumulation in the long - term. Currently, the stainless - steel market has entered the year - end consumption off - season, and downstream demand remains sluggish. Close attention should be paid to the impact of downstream terminal consumption on inventory changes [16]. Lithium Carbonate - Core view: Correction, then go long after stabilizing. The total inventory has been decreasing for 16 consecutive weeks. Recently, affected by the increase in the arrival of overseas spodumene and the expectation of domestic production resumption, the price will correct. Wait for the opportunity to go long after stabilization [1]. - Industry logic: The total inventory has been declining for 16 consecutive weeks. Upstream inventories have further decreased, downstream has actively reduced inventories to a reasonable range, and there has been obvious inventory accumulation in the trader segment. As prices have risen rapidly, the production enthusiasm of lithium salt plants has increased, and there is still room for an increase in the operating rate. Terminal demand remains strong, and the optimistic expectation for energy storage still exists. The weekly production of lithium iron phosphate has reached a new high. Overall, lithium carbonate inventories continue to decline, and there is no significant room for price drops. Recently, affected by the increase in the arrival of overseas spodumene and the expectation of domestic production resumption, the price will correct, and wait for the opportunity to go long after stabilization [20].