全球宏观及大类资产配置周报-20251208

1. Report Industry Investment Rating | Asset Category | Rating | | --- | --- | | Gold | Oscillation | | Dollar | Bearish | | US Stocks | Oscillation | | A-shares | Oscillation | | Treasury Bonds | Oscillation | [23] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas markets were relatively quiet this week. The ADP employment data weakened further, and the September PCE data met expectations. The market fully priced in the December interest rate cut, and risk appetite recovered moderately. The Bank of Japan unexpectedly signaled a possible interest rate hike, causing marginal tightening of market liquidity, but expectations of continuous liquidity release from the Fed in the long term increased. The US economy has not significantly deteriorated, and the Fed's room for interest rate cuts is limited. Risk assets were generally in a high-level oscillation, lacking further catalysts in the short term. Attention should be paid to the risk of profit-taking after the Fed's interest rate meeting next week [4]. - Domestic market expectations for the upcoming Politburo meeting and the relay of economic stabilization policies at the end of the year and the beginning of the next year are relatively low. The tense Sino-Japanese relations also pose certain resistance to the market. The future policy stimulus intensity and rhythm will set the tone for the subsequent market performance [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Context Tracking - Overseas markets were quiet. ADP employment weakened, September PCE met expectations, and the market priced in a December rate cut. The Bank of Japan's rate hike signal caused short - term liquidity tightening, but long - term Fed liquidity expectations increased. The US economy remained resilient, and the Fed's rate cut space was limited. Risk assets oscillated at high levels [4]. - Domestic market expectations were low, and Sino - Japanese relations affected the market. The Politburo meeting will determine future policy stimulus [4]. 3.2 Global Asset Class Performance Overview 3.2.1 Equity Markets - Most global stock markets oscillated at high levels. In developed markets, the S&P 500 rose 0.31%, the Nikkei 225 rose 0.47%, the South Korean KOSPI index rose 4.42%, and the German DAX index rose 0.8%. In emerging markets, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.37%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.87%, the Taiwan Weighted Index rose 1.28%, the Brazilian IBOVESPA index fell 1.07%, and the Saudi All - Share Index rose 0.33%. MSCI global indices generally rose, with frontier > emerging > global > developed [6][8]. 3.2.2 Foreign Exchange Markets - The US dollar index continued to weaken, falling 0.46% to 99. Most national currencies appreciated against the US dollar. The RMB exchange - rate index was flat, and the on - shore RMB appreciated slightly to 7.07. The Mexican peso appreciated 0.62%, the Brazilian real depreciated 1.93%, the euro appreciated 0.39%, the yen appreciated 0.53%, the South Korean won depreciated 0.42%, the British pound appreciated 0.69%, and the Australian dollar appreciated 1.38% [10][11]. 3.2.3 Bond Markets - Global major countries' 10 - year government bond yields oscillated upward. In developed countries, the US Treasury yield rose 12bp to 4.14%, the Japanese government bond yield rose 13bp, the British government bond yield rose 1bp, and the German government bond yield rose 11bp. In emerging markets, the Chinese government bond yield rose 1bp to 1.85%, the Brazilian government bond yield rose 16bp, and the Indonesian government bond yield fell 12bp [15][16]. 3.2.4 Commodity Markets - The global commodity market was strong. Energy prices rebounded due to the deadlock in the Russia - Ukraine negotiations. WTI crude oil rose 2.84%, and natural gas rose 9.77%. The metal sector was strong, with LME copper rising 4.38% and LME aluminum rising 1.24%. Gold was in a high - level consolidation, and silver was strong under the short - squeeze situation. COMEX gold fell 0.67%, and silver rose 3%. The domestic commodity market showed differentiation, with precious metals > non - ferrous metals > black metals > industrial products > agricultural products > energy and chemicals [20][21]. 3.3 Weekly Outlook for Asset Classes 3.3.1 Precious Metals - Gold was oscillating around the $4200 mark, lacking upward momentum. The US economic data was mixed, with employment weakening and inflation under control. If the Fed's meeting is less dovish than expected, gold may face a short - term correction. The real interest rate rose, the US dollar index oscillated, and the RMB appreciated. The gold trading heat cooled, and the silver short - squeeze risk decreased. It is advisable to consider going long on the gold - silver ratio [24][29][35]. 3.3.2 US Dollar - The US dollar was bearish. The December interest rate cut was almost certain, and the downward pressure on the US dollar index increased [23]. 3.3.3 US Stocks - US stocks were oscillating. The three major US stock indices continued to recover. The end - of - year seasonal performance was strong, but attention should be paid to the risk of profit - taking after the interest rate meeting next week [39]. 3.3.4 A - shares - A - shares were oscillating. The trading volume did not increase significantly, and funds were in a wait - and - see state. The upcoming macro - week will set the tone for the stock market [50]. 3.3.5 Treasury Bonds - Treasury bonds were oscillating. The Politburo meeting's policy tone is expected to be positive but not exceed market expectations. The short - and medium - term varieties are likely to stabilize, but the trading structure of ultra - long - term bonds is fragile, and whether it can stabilize needs further observation [23][55]. 3.4 Global Macroeconomic Data Tracking 3.4.1 Overseas High - Frequency Economic Data Tracking - The GDPNow model estimated the Q3 growth rate at 3.81%, and the Redbook retail sales growth rate rose to 7.6%. The US economy remained resilient. Crude oil prices rebounded, and inflation expectations rebounded slightly, but inflation risks were controllable. US unemployment claims decreased, and the employment market weakened but did not deteriorate significantly [70]. - Bank reserves were $2.9 trillion, the TGA account balance was $908.5 billion, and overnight reverse repurchase volume decreased. Market liquidity tightened marginally. Corporate bond credit spreads narrowed, and the market's interest rate cut expectations continued to rise, fully pricing in a December rate cut and two rate cuts next year [79]. - The US November ISM manufacturing PMI was 48.2, remaining in the contraction range. The November ISM services PMI rose to 52.6, reaching a nine - month high. The September core PCE increased 2.8% year - on - year, supporting the Fed's rate cut [82]. 3.4.2 Domestic High - Frequency Economic Data Tracking - The real estate industry continued to drag down the economy, with Vanke's bonds falling and the second - hand housing market experiencing a decline in both volume and price. Port container throughput remained high, indicating short - term resilience in external demand [88]. - As of December 5, R007, DR007, SHIBOR overnight, and SHIBOR 1 - week were 1.50%, 1.44%, 1.30%, and 1.42% respectively. The average daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase increased, and the overnight trading volume ratio decreased [91]. - In October, industrial production, fixed - asset investment, and social retail sales growth rates declined. However, due to the strong economic performance in the first three quarters, achieving the 5% annual growth target is not difficult [92]. - In October, the real estate industry continued to weaken, with declines in real estate investment, sales, and corporate funds [95]. - In October, financial data was weak. Resident and corporate loan growth was negative, government bond issuance decreased, and M1 growth rate declined [98]. - In October, PPI and CPI continued to recover. PPI's year - on - year decline narrowed, and CPI's year - on - year growth rate turned positive. Price increases were affected by overseas factors, policies, and supply - demand contradictions [105]. - In October, export and import growth rates declined. Exports were affected by factors such as fewer working days, high bases, and trade frictions. Imports declined due to weak domestic demand. In the future, export growth is expected to remain resilient [112].