供减质劣，震荡走强：苹果年报

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the 2024 - 25 season, due to reduced apple storage and declining quality, the price of high - quality apples was significantly higher, and the overall price increased compared to the previous year. In the 2025 - 26 season, apples are generally smaller and of lower quality, with further reduced storage volume. The apple price in the new season may show significant differentiation [1][3]. Summary by Directory 1. 2025 Apple Market Review - The 2025 apple futures market showed phased growth and high - level fluctuations, driven by supply (yield, quality, inventory) and demand (demand differentiation). It can be divided into three stages: from January to June, low inventory and expected yield reduction drove the price to rise steadily from 7,800 yuan/ton to about 8,000 yuan/ton; from July to September, the price fluctuated at a high level around 8,000 yuan/ton due to confirmed yield reduction and higher opening prices of early - maturing apples; from October to November, the price accelerated to rise due to yield reduction and quality problems during the new apple harvest season [4][6]. 2. Macroeconomic Factor Analysis Social Retail Data - From January to October 2025, China's social consumer retail market showed stable growth and structural optimization. The cumulative social retail sales from January to October reached 41.2 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.3%. The service retail sales increased by 5.3% year - on - year, faster than the 4.4% growth of commodity retail sales. The full - year social retail sales are expected to exceed 50 trillion yuan [8][9][12]. Price Level - In 2025, China's prices showed a "low - then - high, mild recovery" trend. The CPI turned positive in October (up 0.2% year - on - year) and then declined slightly in November (down 0.5% year - on - year). The core CPI remained moderately increasing (up 0.6% year - on - year). The PPI turned positive in October (up 0.1% month - on - month) and then declined in November (down 0.3% month - on - month). The annual CPI is expected to increase by 0.1% - 0.6%, and the PPI is expected to decline by 0.6% - 3.0%. Fruit prices were high in the first half and low in the second half, basically the same as the 2024 average [13][14][15]. 3. Apple Supply and Demand Analysis Characteristics of the 2025 - 26 Apple Market - The 2025 apple season was affected by abnormal climate, with characteristics of reduced yield and planting area (about 10% reduction), smaller fruit size, lower high - quality fruit ratio (20% lower than normal), higher price (about 0.5 yuan/jin higher on average), greater inventory risk, and later harvest and storage time (about 10 days later than usual). The opening price of new apples was significantly higher than in previous years [16][19][20]. Fluctuations in Apple Planting Income - Apple planting costs are relatively fixed, with high and increasing labor costs. Income mainly comes from fruit sales, and prices vary greatly among different varieties. Income fluctuates due to price and yield changes, with price changes having a greater impact. The government is promoting the "insurance + futures" project to help farmers manage risks [21]. Slight Yield Reduction in the Current Season - In 2025, China's apple yield was about 3,431 million tons, a reduction of about 6% compared to 2024. Yield was adjusted based on bagging volume, fruit diameter, and high - quality fruit ratio. Different regions had different yield changes, with most major regions experiencing a decline, and only a few small - scale regions achieving slight increases [26][27]. Significantly Reduced Apple Storage - As of November 19, 2025, the apple cold - storage inventory in the main producing areas was about 7.7316 billion tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%. The low storage was caused by weather disasters reducing yield, quality decline reducing effective inventory, and high market prices suppressing acquisition demand [29][30][31]. 4. 2026 Outlook - Due to slow domestic consumption recovery and low overall yield with greater quality differences, the scarcity of high - quality apples will gradually emerge after the Spring Festival, while the supply of low - grade apples will be relatively abundant. Therefore, the apple price is expected to show significant differentiation, with high - quality apples commanding higher prices [33].