短期钢厂减产预期增强，市场逐步交易负反馈

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For rebar, short - term construction steel enterprises' production cuts and maintenance are increasing, leading to a significant decline in rebar production. Although the apparent demand has declined, the inventory reduction has accelerated. It is expected that rebar will maintain a relatively strong consolidation trend in the short term [5][8]. - For iron ore, short - term imported ore shipments have increased slightly, but the expected arrival volume will decline significantly next week, and port inventory pressure will gradually ease. The daily iron water volume and steel mill's daily consumption are decreasing, and steel mills are mainly adopting the winter storage replenishment strategy. It is expected that iron ore will maintain a range - bound trend later [11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar - Futures: This week, the rebar 05 contract maintained a relatively strong consolidation driven by the long - position main force. As of Friday, it closed at 3157 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan from last week, with a weekly increase of 1.28% [5]. - Spot: This week, the mainstream rebar prices in various regions continued to rise slightly, with average trading. As of Friday, the national average rebar price increased by 35 yuan to 3326 yuan/ton. Prices in different regions showed mixed trends [5]. - Fundamentals: - Supply: The blast furnace operating rate and iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills decreased. The average operating rate of 90 electric - furnace steel mills decreased, while the capacity utilization rate increased. Rebar weekly output decreased by 16.77 tons to 189.31 tons, remaining at a low level year - on - year [5]. - Demand: This week, building material trading volume and rebar's apparent consumption both declined slightly, and the apparent consumption remained at a low level in the same period [8]. - Inventory: The inventory of five major steel products and rebar continued to decline slightly. As of Friday, the total rebar inventory decreased by 27.67 tons to 503.81 tons, remaining at a low level in the same period [8]. - Basis: As of Friday, the lowest warehouse - receipt quotation for rebar in Tianjin was 3260 yuan/ton, with a premium of 103 yuan over the rebar 05 contract, a contraction of 37 yuan from last week. The rebar basis is above the average, and it is expected to contract in the future [8]. Iron Ore - Futures: This week, the iron ore 05 contract maintained a weak consolidation driven by the short - position main force. As of Friday, it closed at 769.0 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton from last week, with a gain of 0.13% [8]. - Spot: This week, the prices of mainstream imported ore varieties generally decreased slightly, and the prices of domestic iron concentrates began to stabilize and decline, with average trading [8]. - Fundamentals: - Supply: As of the 1st, the total shipments of iron ore from Australia and Brazil were 2765.8 tons, an increase of 128.4 tons. The 45 - port arrival volume was 2699.3 tons, a decrease of 117.8 tons. The arrival volume has quickly recovered to the high level of the same period [11]. - Demand: The daily average port clearance volume of 45 ports decreased. The weekly average trading volume of port spot iron ore increased. The daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills decreased, and the daily consumption of imported ore by 247 steel mills decreased. All indicators remained at medium - to - high levels in the same period [11]. - Inventory: As of the 28th, the 45 - port iron ore inventory continued to increase slightly, reaching 15300.81 tons. The imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased to 8984.73 tons, remaining at a relatively low level in the same period [11]. - Basis: As of Friday, the best - delivery product, the Carajás fines at Rizhao Port, was 808 yuan/ton, with a premium of 23 yuan over the iron ore 05 contract, a contraction of 3 yuan from last week. The iron ore basis is above the average, and it is expected to continue to contract in the future [11].