Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-12-08 05:19Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the synthetic rubber industry is neutral. It is suggested that investors adopt a strategy of going long on synthetic rubber and short on natural rubber [3]. Core Viewpoints - The current spread between synthetic and natural rubber has reached a historical low. The space for further decline in the single - sided price of synthetic rubber and the spread between different rubber types is limited. The BR on the futures market is in a low - valuation range [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - As of December 4, 2025, the ex - factory price of Sinopec's BR9000 was 10,600 yuan/ton, and that of PetroChina's BR9000 was between 10,600 - 10,700 yuan/ton. The overall supply of domestic cis - butadiene rubber remained sufficient [4]. 2. Supply Analysis 2.1 Butadiene - Last week, the domestic butadiene production was 112,200 tons (- 0.80%), and the capacity utilization rate was 70.4%. Many butadiene production devices were shut down or under maintenance, leading to a decline in production [3]. 2.2 Cis - Butadiene Rubber - The production of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber was 29,500 tons (4.76%), and the capacity utilization rate was 73.53%. Some cis - butadiene rubber devices were under maintenance, and it is expected that this week's production and capacity utilization rate will slightly decline, but the supply on the spot side will remain sufficient [3]. 3. Demand Analysis 3.1 Semi - steel Tires - In the semi - steel tire market, the market trading was weak during the month - end period. The four - season tire market was weakly stable, and the snow - tire market had sufficient supply but awaited further demand improvement [3]. 3.2 All - steel Tires - In the all - steel tire market, the trading was dull. Affected by the seasonal off - season, the market demand further weakened. With relatively sufficient market supply, the focus was on digesting existing inventories, and the enthusiasm for restocking was average [3]. 4. Inventory Analysis 4.1 Butadiene - Last week, the butadiene port inventory was 41,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 13.11%. The total domestic butadiene inventory declined from a high level, with a week - on - week decrease of 7.41% [3]. 4.2 Cis - Butadiene Rubber - The inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber enterprises and traders was 32,330 tons, a week - on - week increase of - 0.34%. The downstream continuous price - pressing led to weak trading, with an increase in production enterprise inventory and a slight decrease in trading enterprise inventory [3]. 5. Price and Spread Analysis 5.1 Price - The ex - factory prices of BR9000 of Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. The prices of butadiene, cis - butadiene rubber, and styrene - butadiene rubber also showed different trends [4][8][9]. 5.2 Spread - The RU - BR spread was 4,655 yuan/ton (- 6.81%); the NR - BR spread was 1,635 yuan/ton (- 12.10%); the BR - SC ratio was 0.00% [3]. 6. Profit Analysis - The production gross profit of butadiene by oxidative dehydrogenation was - 1,764 yuan/ton, and that by C4 extraction was 202.23 yuan/ton. The production gross profit of cis - butadiene rubber was 787 yuan/ton, with a gross profit margin of 8.02% [3]. 7. Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Analysis - The US core PCE in September dropped to 2.8%, hitting a three - month low and lower than market expectations. G7 and the EU considered banning Russian oil shipping services. The geopolitical situation between the US and Venezuela was tense. The probability of the Bank of Japan raising interest rates in December increased significantly [3]. 8. Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: None. - Arbitrage: Pay attention to the strategy of going long on BR and short on NR/RU [3].