宽幅震荡，关注生柴及天气利多兑现情况：油脂年报

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand of global vegetable oils in 2025/2026 is expected to tighten year - on - year, which will support the upward shift of the domestic oil price range. Various factors such as weather and policies have a significant impact on the oil fundamentals, potentially leading to increased price volatility [5][71]. - For palm oil, La Nina may cause seasonal production cuts and accelerated inventory reduction, providing short - term upward opportunities. The uncertainty of palm oil production in Indonesia and Malaysia and the implementation of the Indonesian B45/50 plan may provide long - term upward momentum. - For soybean oil, if the soybean production in North and South America declines due to weather speculation, China continues to purchase a large amount of US soybeans, and the US biofuel policy favorable to US soybean oil is implemented, the tightening of the global soybean supply - demand will help the domestic soybean oil price to be strong. Otherwise, the domestic soybean oil will face pressure. - For rapeseed oil, focus on the final anti - dumping review result of Canadian rapeseed and whether China will relax the import control of Australian rapeseed, which will improve the current tight supply - demand pattern of the domestic rapeseed industry and be negative for rapeseed oil prices. Summary According to the Directory I. Market Review - In 2025, domestic oil prices showed a pattern of large fluctuations and an increased operating range, with soybean oil > rapeseed oil > palm oil. As of the week of December 5, 2025, the domestic palm oil futures contract rose 288 yuan/ton (3.40%) to 8762 yuan/ton compared to January 1, the soybean oil futures contract rose 542 yuan/ton (7.02%) to 8266 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed oil futures contract rose 480 yuan/ton (5.38%) to 9407 yuan/ton [8]. - In Q1 2025, the three major domestic oils were in a game stage, with rapeseed oil > palm oil > soybean oil. Palm oil was suppressed by the postponement of Indonesia's B40 policy and the recovery of Malaysian palm oil production in Q1, but was supported by low domestic inventory. Soybean oil was dragged down by the expected high yield of South American soybeans in 2024/2025 and poor US soybean export data. Rapeseed oil rose due to concerns about future supply tightening caused by the anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed [9]. - In Q2, the trends of the three major domestic oils further diverged. Palm oil fell sharply due to the strong recovery of production in Malaysia and Indonesia and the increase in inventory. Soybean oil and rapeseed oil showed a volatile trend as the supply shortage of domestic soybeans was gradually alleviated and there were both positive and negative factors in the high inventory of rapeseed oil and Sino - Canadian negotiations [9]. - In Q3, the three major domestic oils rose collectively, with rapeseed oil leading the increase. Rapeseed oil rose significantly due to the preliminary anti - dumping review of Canadian rapeseed in August, which led to concerns about supply shortages. Soybean and palm oils rose in early July - late August due to favorable bio - fuel policies, but the upward trend weakened later due to factors such as the expected high yield of US soybeans, the smooth increase in Malaysian palm oil inventory, and high domestic oil inventory [10]. - In Q4, rapeseed and palm oils fell sharply and then bottomed out in a volatile manner, while soybean oil maintained a volatile trend. Palm oil was pressured by the unexpected increase in Malaysian inventory and the uncertainty of Indonesia's B50 policy. Rapeseed oil was affected by the permission of Australian rapeseed import and ongoing Sino - Canadian negotiations. Soybean oil was supported by China's resumption of US soybean imports [10]. II. Fundamental Analysis (A) Origin Oil Supply - Demand 1. 2025/2026 Global Vegetable Oil Supply - Demand Expected to Tighten for Four Consecutive Years - Supply side: The USDA November estimate shows that the global vegetable oil production in 2025/2026 is 234.395 million tons (year - on - year + 1.96%), with the lowest growth rate in nearly five years. Rapeseed oil production increased the most (2.56% year - on - year) at 35.009 million tons, followed by palm oil at 80.186 million tons (+2.42%), and soybean oil increased the least at 70.567 million tons (+1.10%) [12]. - Demand side: Bio - diesel policies in various countries have strengthened domestic consumption (228.811 million tons, year - on - year + 2.86%) and tightened exports (86.979 million tons, year - on - year - 0.44%). The increase in demand is greater than that in supply, so the global vegetable oil ending inventory and stock - to - use ratio will decline year - on - year, and the supply - demand will continue to tighten [12]. - Uncertainties: Mainly focus on South American soybean and Indonesian palm oil production, as well as bio - diesel policies in various countries [12]. 2. 2025/2026 Global Palm Oil Supply - Demand Tightness Improves Marginally, Focus on Production and Indonesian Bio - diesel Policy - Supply side: The USDA November estimate shows that the global palm oil production in 2025/2026 is 80.816 million tons (year - on - year + 2.42%), with Indonesia at 47.5 million tons (year - on - year + 3.26%) and Malaysia at 19.5 million tons (year - on - year + 0.62%). However, due to factors such as aging trees, El Nino in 2026, and the nationalization of plantations in Indonesia, the medium - and long - term palm oil production in Southeast Asia is highly uncertain, and the increase may be lower than expected [16]. - Demand side: The USDA November estimate shows that the global palm oil domestic consumption in 2025/2026 is 77.862 million tons (year - on - year + 3.49%), exports are 45.708 million tons (year - on - year + 1.74%), and total demand is 123.57 million tons (year - on - year + 2.83%). The implementation of Indonesia's B45/B50 bio - diesel policy will increase domestic consumption and reduce exports, while Malaysia may seize Indonesia's export market [21][22]. - Inventory: In 2025, Malaysia's inventory increased rapidly in Q3 and was at a five - year high in October, while Indonesia's inventory remained low throughout the year. In the medium - and long - term, both Malaysia and Indonesia are expected to have a slight inventory reduction in 2025/2026, with Indonesia's supply - demand being more tense [26][27]. 3. 2025/2026 Global Soybean Supply - Demand at a Medium - Term Level, Focus on US Soybean Demand and Production Adjustment in North and South America - Supply side: The USDA November report slightly lowered the 2025/2026 US soybean production to 4.253 billion bushels (115.775 million tons). Affected by the decline in production in the US and Argentina, the global soybean production in 2025/2026 is 421.75 million tons (year - on - year - 1.26%), but it is still the second - highest level in the past five years. The US soybean yield may be adjusted downward, and South American soybean production is at risk of reduction due to La Nina [29]. - Demand side: The USDA November estimate shows that the global soybean total demand in 2025/2026 is 609.51 million tons (+1.91%), with domestic consumption at 421.54 million tons (year - on - year + 2.06%) and exports at 187.97 million tons (year - on - year + 1.59%). However, the US bio - diesel policy and China's purchase demand are uncertain, which may lead to a decline in global soybean demand [33]. - Overall: The global soybean ending inventory and stock - to - use ratio will decline slightly year - on - year, and the supply - demand will be at a medium - term level in the past five years. Uncertainties include the production of US and South American soybeans, US bio - diesel policy, and China's purchase demand [43]. 4. 2025/2026 Global Rapeseed Supply - Demand is Loose, but China's Supply - Demand is Tight due to Import Restrictions on Canadian Rapeseed - International supply - demand: Supply side: The USDA November estimate shows that the global rapeseed production in 2025/2026 is 92.273 million tons (year - on - year + 7.30%), mainly due to the increase in production in major producing countries except Ukraine. Demand side: The total demand increased slightly year - on - year, with a significant decline in exports due to China's anti - dumping investigation of Canadian rapeseed. The global rapeseed supply - demand is significantly loose, with ending inventory and stock - to - use ratio reaching historical highs [44][45][46]. - China's supply - demand: Due to China's anti - dumping policy on Canadian rapeseed, the import of Canadian rapeseed has decreased significantly, and the domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil supply - demand has tightened. The future supply - demand situation depends on the final anti - dumping review result of Canadian rapeseed and China's attitude towards Australian rapeseed imports [54][55][56]. (B) Domestic Oil Supply - Demand - Supply: In 2025, the domestic imports of soybeans and rapeseed oil increased year - on - year, while the imports of rapeseed and palm oil decreased. The increase in soybean imports was due to concerns about supply shortages in Sino - US trade, and the decrease in palm oil imports was due to poor import profits. The import of rapeseed was restricted by the anti - dumping policy on Canadian rapeseed, while rapeseed oil imports increased as it mainly depends on Russia [58]. - Demand: In 2025, the overall domestic oil demand was weak, and the consumption of soybean oil > palm oil > rapeseed oil. The consumption of all three oils decreased year - on - year, with soybean oil having the smallest decline due to its cost - effectiveness [59]. - Inventory: As of the end of November, the supply - demand of domestic soybeans/soybean oil was the most relaxed, followed by palm oil, and rapeseed/rapeseed oil was the most tense [59]. - Future outlook: It is expected that the three major domestic oils will enter the de - stocking stage, with rapeseed oil having the fastest de - stocking speed, followed by soybean and palm oils. The de - stocking situation of each oil is affected by factors such as production in the origin, import profits, and policies [64][65][66]. III. Market Outlook and Strategy - Global vegetable oils: The supply - demand will continue to tighten in 2025/2026, supporting the price. Uncertainties mainly focus on South American soybean and Indonesian palm oil production and bio - diesel policies in various countries [67]. - Palm oil: The current production forecast for Southeast Asia in 2026 is optimistic, but production may be lower than expected due to various factors. The implementation of the Indonesian B50 policy is uncertain. The supply - demand of palm oil in Indonesia and Malaysia is expected to be strong, but the inventory will decline [68]. - Soybean oil: The global soybean supply will decline year - on - year in 2025/2026, while the demand will increase. The supply - demand will be at a medium - term level. Uncertainties include the production of US and South American soybeans, US bio - diesel policy, and China's purchase demand [69]. - Rapeseed oil: The anti - dumping policy on Canadian rapeseed has led to a divergence in the supply - demand of rapeseed at home and abroad. The international supply - demand is loose, while China's is tight. The future supply - demand situation in China depends on the final anti - dumping review result of Canadian rapeseed and the import policy of Australian rapeseed [70].