铝2026年策略：经济复苏叠加产能天花板，铝价重心向上

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - In 2026, alumina prices are expected to decline with reduced volatility due to a more relaxed ore supply and a slightly oversupplied production capacity [1][29][92] - The growth rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum production will slow down significantly as the operating capacity approaches the ceiling, and imports are expected to increase to offset the supply - demand gap. The downstream demand for aluminum is undergoing a structural transformation [2][45][92] - The price of aluminum alloy will still be pegged to the price of aluminum in 2026, but its seasonal performance will be weaker than before [3][53][93] - The price of aluminum and aluminum alloy is expected to show an upward trend in 2026, driven by factors such as global economic recovery, new - energy transformation, and power construction [3][93] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 2025 Market Review - In 2025, aluminum prices showed a trend of oscillating upward breakthrough, divided into three stages: oscillating upward from January to mid - March, oscillating downward from mid - March to early April, and oscillating upward from early April to November. The price fluctuations were affected by various factors such as policies, tariffs, inventory changes, and macro - events [6][7][8] 3.2 Supply Side 3.2.1 Bauxite - Domestic bauxite production increased slightly in 2025, with a growth rate of 5.2% from January to November. However, production was restricted in some areas due to safety and environmental regulations. Imported bauxite increased significantly, with imports from January to October reaching 171 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.4%. The price of imported bauxite decreased due to increased supply. There were some disturbances in the supply from Guinea, and the political situation in Guinea may affect future supply policies [14][16][18] 3.2.2 Alumina - In 2025, alumina production increased, with output from January to October reaching 78.222 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.56%. The price first declined, then rebounded, and then fell again. New production capacity was limited in 2025, mainly from Guangxi Huasheng Phase II, Shandong Chuangyuan New Materials, and Hebei Wenfeng. In 2026, new overseas production capacity will be mainly in India, Indonesia, and Vietnam. Alumina production capacity is expected to be slightly oversupplied in 2026, and prices will be determined by cost, showing an oscillating downward trend [22][24][29] 3.2.3 Electrolytic Aluminum - In 2025, the built - in and operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum increased slightly, with production from January to October reaching 36.8908 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.57%. Many enterprises resumed production due to improved profitability, while some enterprises carried out technical upgrades and maintenance, resulting in production cuts. New production capacity mainly came from Shuangyuan Aluminum, Chalco Qinghai, and others. In 2026, new domestic production capacity will mainly come from Huomeihongjun Zhalv Phase II and Tianshan Aluminum. Overseas production capacity increased in 2025, mainly in Indonesia, Russia, and other countries, and is expected to increase by 1.8 million tons in 2026. The growth rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum production will slow down significantly in 2026, and imports are expected to increase [30][35][45] 3.2.4 Aluminum Alloy - Although the import of scrap aluminum was liberalized in 2024, there was no significant increase in 2025 due to factors such as the cancellation of export tax rebates, tariff differences, and tightened trade policies in some countries. The production of recycled aluminum alloy increased steadily, and the listing of aluminum alloy futures promoted production. After the listing of the futures, the production of cast aluminum alloy increased significantly, suppressing the price difference between ADC12 and A00, and the seasonal effect was weakened [48][50][52] 3.3 Demand Side 3.3.1 Real Estate - In 2025, the real estate market continued to decline. In 2026, the real estate market is expected to continue to bottom out, and the demand for aluminum in the real estate sector will continue to decrease. However, urban renewal and affordable rental housing will support part of the aluminum demand [54][56][58] 3.3.2 Infrastructure - In 2025, the issuance of local government special bonds increased, but part of the funds was used for debt repayment, resulting in a slowdown in infrastructure investment growth. The investment in the power grid reached a new high. In 2026, with the increase in special bond quotas and the promotion of power grid construction, the demand for aluminum in infrastructure is expected to increase by 5% [59][61][69] 3.3.3 Automobile - In 2025, the automobile market had good production and sales performance, with new - energy vehicle penetration exceeding 50%. In 2026, although consumption policies are expected to be strengthened and export demand is optimistic, factors such as the reduction of new - energy vehicle purchase tax exemption and the implementation of new battery standards may lead to flat demand for aluminum in the automobile industry [70][72][75] 3.3.4 Photovoltaic - In 2025, the new installed capacity of photovoltaic increased significantly in the first half of the year but decreased sharply after June due to the "430 New Policy" and "531 New Policy". In 2026, the new installed capacity of domestic photovoltaic is expected to decline significantly, and although the overseas new installed capacity is expected to grow at a rate of 25%, the overall demand for aluminum in the photovoltaic industry is expected to decrease [76][79][82] 3.3.5 Aluminum and Aluminum Product Exports - In 2025, the net export of aluminum products decreased, mainly due to the cancellation of export tax rebates and the imposition of tariffs. The export of aluminum products increased. In 2026, due to the continuation of policies and the strengthening of the domestic aluminum price, the net export of aluminum and aluminum products is expected to decline [83][85][86] 3.4 Inventory and Supply - Demand Balance - In the first half of 2025, aluminum inventories decreased significantly, while in the second half, they increased seasonally. In 2026, the domestic electrolytic aluminum market is expected to have a shortage of 100,000 tons [88][90][91] 3.5 2026 Outlook - Alumina prices are expected to decline with reduced volatility; the growth rate of domestic electrolytic aluminum production will slow down, imports will increase, and downstream demand will transform; the price of aluminum alloy will be pegged to aluminum with weaker seasonality; the price of aluminum and aluminum alloy is expected to rise [92][93]