【国富期货早间看点】MPOA马棕11月产量环比减4.38% 分析师预估25/26年美豆期末库存为3.02亿蒲 20251208-20251208

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report comprehensively presents the overnight and spot market conditions of various futures and commodities, including palm oil, soybeans, and their related products. It also details important fundamental information such as weather conditions in major crop - growing regions, production and export data, and CFTC持仓 reports. Additionally, macro - economic news both internationally and domestically, as well as capital flows in the futures market, are covered. 3. Summary by Directory Overnight Market - The closing prices and daily/overnight percentage changes of various futures are presented, including BMD palm oil, ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI, CBOT soybeans, soybean meal, and soybean oil [1]. - The latest prices and percentage changes of major currency pairs are provided, including the US Dollar Index, CNY/USD, MYR/USD, etc. [1]. Spot Market - Spot prices, basis, and basis changes of DCE palm oil, soybean oil, and soybean meal in different regions are given. Also, CNF quotes and CNF premium/discounts for imported soybeans from different origins are presented [2]. Important Fundamental Information 产区Weather - A cold front will bring scattered showers to central Brazil, and there will be another round of rainfall on Monday and Tuesday this week. In southern Brazil, soil moisture is favorable but the rainfall frequency has decreased [5]. - Argentina's soybean - growing areas are generally dry, but soil moisture remains favorable in most regions. Long - term dry weather will be interspersed with heavy rain [5]. - In the next 15 days, heavy rain is expected in Brazil's crop - growing belt, which may disrupt early soybean sowing. Argentina's Pampas region will have less rainfall than normal, but good soil moisture will support soybean growth [6]. Production and Export Data - MPOA estimates that Malaysia's palm oil production in November decreased by 4.38%, with different decreases in different regions [7]. - ITS reports that Malaysia's palm oil exports from December 1 - 5 decreased by 20.25% compared to the same period last month [7]. - Global palm oil exports showed strong recovery in 2025. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand exported 36.4 million tons in the first 10 months, 1.4 million tons more than in 2024. China increased imports while India decreased [8]. CFTC持仓 Report As of the week ending October 28, CBOT soybean long positions increased by 45,520 to 242,178, and short positions decreased by 34,057 to 84,985, etc. [9]. USDA Reports and Pre - reports - Analysts expect the USDA's December report to show that US soybean ending stocks in 2025/26 will be 302 million bushels, and global soybean ending stocks will be 122.41 million tons [9]. - Analysts expect Argentina's soybean production in 2025/26 to be 48.57 million tons and Brazil's to be 175.35 million tons [10]. - In the 2026/27 season, US farmers are expected to reduce corn and wheat planting and increase soybean planting. The estimated ending stocks of corn are 2.019 billion bushels and of soybeans are 314 million bushels [10]. - USDA's private exporters reported a sale of 462,000 tons of soybeans to China for the 2025/2026 season [10]. - Analysts expect US soybean export sales from November 6 to net increase by 450,000 - 1,600,000 tons in the 2025/26 season, etc. [11]. Other Information - As of the week ending November 29, the number of barges going downstream in the US decreased by 38.6%, and the number of barges unloading in New Orleans increased by 46.3% [12]. - In Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, due to reduced rainfall in mid - November, the soybean sowing progress was 74% as of last Thursday, lower than the historical average [12]. - As of December 4, Argentina's soybean planting rate in the 2025/26 season was 49%, up from 39% last week but lower than 54% last year [12]. - Canada's rapeseed exports increased by 59.8% to 159,000 tons in the week ending November 30, and the commercial inventory was 132,390 tons [12]. - In 2025, Ukraine's sunflower seed production declined significantly, and domestic rapeseed and soybean processing may exceed exports. Rapeseed processing may reach a record 1.4 million tons, and soybean processing is expected to increase to 3 million tons [13]. - The Baltic Dry Index decreased by 3.1% on Friday but increased by 6.5% for the week, reaching a two - and - a - half - year high [14]. Domestic Supply and Demand - On December 5, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil was 16,500 tons, a 31% decrease from the previous day [16]. - On December 5, the trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was 171,200 tons, an increase of 85,700 tons from the previous day. The overall oil mill operating rate was 56.85%, up 0.89% [16]. - From November 29 to December 5, domestic oil mills' actual soybean crushing volume was 2.0558 million tons, a decrease of 145,000 tons from the previous week and 89,800 tons lower than the estimated volume. The actual operating rate was 56.55% [16]. - On December 5, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" increased. The average prices of some agricultural products such as pork, beef, etc., also changed [17]. Macro - economic News International News - The US core PCE price index in September was 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month [19]. - The US personal spending in September increased by 0.3% month - on - month [19]. - The US one - year inflation expectation in December was 4.1%, and the Michigan consumer confidence index was 53.3 [19]. - The Eurozone's Q3 GDP growth rate was 1.4% year - on - year, and the employment growth rate was 0.2% quarter - on - quarter [19]. Domestic News - On December 5, the USD/CNY exchange rate was 7.0749, up 16 points [21]. - On December 5, the People's Bank of China conducted 139.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 161.5 billion yuan. For the week, there was a net withdrawal of 848 billion yuan [21]. - China's foreign exchange reserves in November were 3.346372 trillion US dollars [21]. - China's central bank increased its gold reserves for the 13th consecutive month in November [21]. - In November, China's futures market trading volume was 770 million lots, and the trading volume was 66.61 trillion yuan, with year - on - year increases of 13.54% and 7.11% respectively [21]. Capital Flows On December 5, 2025, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 27.025 billion yuan. Commodity futures had a net inflow of 3.847 billion yuan, while agricultural product futures had a net outflow of 94 million yuan, etc. [25]