黑色金属数据日报-20251208

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The steel market is range - bound and waiting for new drivers. There is a balance between supply and demand in the short - term, with potential for price support at low levels due to possible restocking and pressure at high levels from inventory de - stocking of plates. It's advisable to participate in the market through positions when the basis has a safety margin, with a focus on hot - rolled coils [2]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are oscillating with improved sentiment but still lack strong drivers. There is an over - supply situation in the medium - term, with weak demand and high inventory levels, so the prices are under downward pressure [2]. - The coking coal and coke futures have broken down. The first round of coke price cuts has been implemented, and the second round is expected soon. Coking coal prices are weak due to slow downstream restocking. It is recommended to wait and see, especially considering the possible impact of major domestic meetings [2]. - Iron ore prices have fallen after oscillating at the upper limit of the range. The short - term arrival volume has increased, and inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. It is recommended to hold short positions [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - On December 5, the closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes of far - month and near - month contracts of various black metal futures such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, coke, and coking coal are presented, along with cross - month spreads, price differences, and profit margins [1]. Spot Market - On December 5, the spot prices and price changes of various black metal products in different regions are provided, including rebar, hot - rolled coil, billet, iron ore, coking coal, and coke, as well as the basis of some products [1]. Market Analysis of Different Products - Steel: The spot market was weak over the weekend, and macro factors this week will be the focus of trading. The supply - demand of five steel products was weak last week, with pressure on furnace materials. There may be some restocking in the industry, providing support at low prices. It is recommended to use a range - bound approach for single - side trading and consider cash - and - carry arbitrage for hot - rolled coils or use options strategies to assist in spot procurement and sales [2]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: The prices are oscillating with insufficient drivers. Steel prices are under pressure, steel mill profits are shrinking, and direct demand is expected to weaken. Alloy plants have high production and low profits, with over - supply and high inventory. Investment clients are advised to short, while industrial clients can use options to protect their spot positions [2]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The first round of coke price cuts has been implemented, and the second round is expected soon. Coking coal spot auctions have a high rate of unsold lots, and prices are falling. The futures of coking coal have broken down. It is recommended to wait and see, especially considering the impact of major meetings [2]. - Iron Ore: The price has fallen after oscillating at the upper limit. Short - term arrivals have increased, and inventory is expected to accumulate. It is recommended to hold short positions as steel production may be reduced due to low profitability [2].