国富棕榈油研究周报：棕榈油价格上涨，关注MPOB报告数据-20251208

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of BMD Malaysian palm oil and DCE palm oil both rose this week. However, the expected decline in Malaysian palm oil exports and inventory accumulation in November may put pressure on prices. Attention should be paid to the MPOB report data and changes in import demand in major consuming regions such as India [8][12]. - The rainfall in most palm oil - producing areas is expected to be normal or above normal in the coming week, which may have an impact on palm oil production [16][22]. - Malaysian palm oil inventory in November may rise to a six - and - a - half - year high, which may put pressure on the Malaysian palm oil futures price [31]. - Indian palm oil imports may increase in December due to price advantages [32]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - BMD Malaysian Palm Oil: As of the close on December 5th, the BMD Malaysian palm oil 02 contract closed at 4,152 ringgit/ton, up 0.92% from last week. The price increase was driven by expectations of a decline in November production, an expected increase in Indian imports in November, and rising international crude oil prices. However, expected weak export demand and inventory accumulation in November may drag down prices. SPPOMA and MPOA data show that November production is expected to decline by 0.19% and 4.38% respectively, and three major institutions' high - frequency data suggest that November exports may decrease by 15.89% - 39.21% [8]. - DCE Palm Oil: As of the close on December 5th, the DCE palm oil 01 contract closed at 8,770 yuan/ton, up 1.67% from last week. Although the price rose, the expected sharp decline in Malaysian palm oil exports and inventory accumulation in November may suppress the price. The inversion of the palm oil import profit margin has been repaired. Recently, domestic palm oil inventory has slightly decreased, downstream transactions have been light, and the spot basis has fluctuated [12]. 3.2 Producing Area Weather - Malaysian Producing Area Weather: From November 29th to December 5th, except for some areas in western and eastern Sarawak where precipitation was 15 - 25mm higher than normal, precipitation in other areas was at or below normal levels by 15 - 100mm. From December 6th to December 12th, except for some areas in northern and southeastern Peninsular Malaysia and northeastern Sabah where precipitation is expected to be 15 - 50mm below normal, precipitation in other areas is expected to be at or above normal levels by 15 - 50mm [14][16]. - Indonesian Producing Area Weather: From November 29th to December 5th, except for some areas in northern and central - western Sumatra and northern and southern Kalimantan where precipitation was 15 - 75mm below normal, precipitation in other areas was at or above normal levels by 15 - 75mm. From December 6th to December 12th, except for some areas in northern Sumatra and southern Kalimantan where precipitation is expected to be 15 - 25mm below normal, precipitation in other areas is expected to be at or above normal levels by 15 - 100mm [20][22]. 3.3 International Supply and Demand - Malaysian Palm Oil November Forecast - Export Forecast: AmSpec data shows that Malaysia's palm oil exports from November 1st to 30th were 1,263,298 tons, a 15.89% decrease from the same period last month. ITS data shows exports of 1,316,455 tons, a 19.7% decrease. SGS data predicts exports of 779,392 tons, a 39.21% decrease [24]. - Production Forecast: SPPOMA data shows that from November 1st to 30th, Malaysian palm oil yield per unit decreased by 2.09% month - on - month, oil extraction rate increased by 0.36% month - on - month, and production decreased by 0.19% month - on - month. MPOA data shows that November production is estimated to decrease by 4.38%, with a 5% decrease in Peninsular Malaysia, 3.75% in Sabah, and 3.3% in Sarawak [27]. - Other Important Information: Indian refiners cancelled about 70,000 tons of soybean oil orders due to rising global prices and a depreciating rupee. In November, Malaysian palm oil inventory may rise to a six - and - a - half - year high. Indian palm oil imports in November increased slightly, and are expected to further increase in December [30][31][32]. 3.4 Domestic Supply and Demand - Import Profit: The inversion of the palm oil import profit margin on the futures market has been repaired this week [33]. - Palm Oil Transactions: Palm oil trading volume declined significantly this week. As of the week of December 5th, the total weekly trading volume (spot + basis trading) was 700 tons, a decrease of 7,900 tons or 92% from last week [36]. - Palm Oil Inventory: As of November 28th (week 48), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key domestic regions was 653,500 tons, a 2.04% decrease from last week and a 35.38% increase from the same period last year [38][39]. 3.5 Domestic and International Oil Futures and Spot Prices, and Spread Situations - Basis, Monthly Spread, and Variety Spread Situations - Palm Oil Basis and Monthly Spread: The report provides charts of the basis of 24 - degree palm oil in Shandong, Tianjin, Jiangsu, and Guangzhou against the 01 contract, as well as the 1 - 5 spread of palm oil [42][46]. - Variety Spread and POGO Spread: The report presents charts of international soybean - palm oil spread, POGO spread, international rapeseed - palm oil spread, international sunflower - palm oil spread, domestic rapeseed - palm oil futures spread, and domestic soybean - palm oil futures spread [48][51]. - Palm Oil Warehouse Receipt Quantity and Futures Open Interest: The report provides charts of DCE palm oil warehouse receipt quantity and the open interest of the DCE palm oil 01 contract [53]. - FOB Quotations: The report provides charts of the FOB quotations of 24 - degree palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia [57].