碳酸锂日评：偏弱震荡-20251208

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - On December 5, 2025, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated downward. The spot market trading recovered, and the basis premium widened. Considering the cost, demand, supply, and inventory, the current supply and demand are both strong. The news of the resumption of lithium mines in Jiangxi is inconsistent. The weekly output of lithium carbonate is at a high level. The downstream market remains cautious, the spot market trading is light, and the demand growth has stagnated. The exchange is taking measures to cool the market. It is expected that the lithium price will fluctuate weakly. The trading strategy is to hold short positions [1] Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - On December 5, the closing price of the near - month contract was 90,680 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous - first contract was 90,760 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,500 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous - second contract was 91,020 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,460 yuan from the previous day; the closing price of the continuous - third contract was 91,020 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,460 yuan from the previous day [1] - The trading volume of lithium carbonate futures was 461,507 lots, a decrease of 201,951 lots; the open interest was 560,676 lots, an increase of 47 lots [1] Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5%/domestic) was 93,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 750 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2%/domestic) was 90,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 750 yuan [1] - The average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5%/domestic, coarse - grained) was 82,130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 350 yuan; the average price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (56.5%/domestic, micronized) was 86,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 350 yuan [1] Cost End - The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was $1,154/ton, a decrease of $8; the prices of various types of lithium mica were flat [1] Supply End - Last week, the output of lithium carbonate increased. The output of lithium carbonate from salt lakes decreased, while the output from other sources increased [1] Demand End - Last week, the output of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased. In December, the scheduled production of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide decreased, and the output of power batteries increased last week. In terms of terminal demand, the month - on - month and year - on - year growth rates of new - energy vehicle production and sales slowed down in October; the 3C product shipments weakened; the scheduled production of energy - storage batteries stagnated in December [1] Inventory - The registered warehouse receipts were 10,922 tons, an increase of 500 tons. The social inventory decreased, with smelters and other sectors reducing inventory, while the downstream inventory was tight [1] Industry News - Rio Tinto Group aims to reduce unit costs by 4% from 2024 - 2030. The medium - term capital expenditure guidance target (after 2028) will be below $10 billion. Its lithium project under construction will start production before 2028, with an annual capacity of about 200,000 tons [1] - The ignition and resumption ceremony of Wanzai Times New Energy Materials Co., Ltd., a subsidiary of CATL, originally planned for December 5, was not held, and the lithium mine of Times Mining has not resumed work [1]