纯苯苯乙烯产业链期货周报-20251208

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of pure benzene is expected to fluctuate. In the short - term, geopolitical risks remain, and the supply and demand of pure benzene both decline this week. In the long - term, the new production capacity of pure benzene is large, and the supply - demand pattern is loose. The price of styrene lacks upward drive as the downstream demand enters the seasonal off - season, although the supply is expected to increase at the end of the month [5]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage, sell out - of - the - money call options for options, and expect a fluctuating trend for single - side trading [5]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Pure Benzene Analysis - Supply: Short - term geopolitical risks exist. This week, the supply and demand of pure benzene both decline, and the inventory at the main ports in East China increases significantly. Some domestic refineries have maintenance plans, but the overall supply is relatively stable in the later period. Imports will remain at a relatively high level in the next two months [5][9][11]. - Demand: The profits of downstream styrene and caprolactam have improved. The restart of some styrene plants is expected to boost the demand for pure benzene, and the production of caprolactam is relatively stable. However, the overall downstream start - up is weak, and the inventory of the main downstream products is high [5][15][24]. - Trading Strategy: Single - side trading: expect a fluctuating trend; Arbitrage: wait - and - see; Options: sell out - of - the - money call options [5]. - Styrene Analysis - Supply: This week, the arrival of styrene is concentrated, and the port inventory is stable. With the improvement of production efficiency, the start - up rate is expected to increase. New production capacity will be released this month, and some plants will restart at the end of the month, so the supply is expected to pick up [5][34]. - Demand: The processing margin of downstream products is compressed, and the demand enters the seasonal off - season, lacking upward drive [5][34]. - Trading Strategy: The market circulation of styrene is tight, and the basis is strong. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage and sell out - of - the - money call options for options [5]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - Change in the Price of Pure Benzene: In mid - November, the improvement of US gasoline blending demand led to a decrease in US pure benzene supply and an increase in prices. Recently, with the decline of the US gasoline cracking spread and the recovery of gasoline inventory, the profit of toluene disproportionation has been repaired, and the enthusiasm for gasoline blending has declined [7][8]. - Supply and Demand of Pure Benzene: The import of pure benzene is concentrated, and the inventory at ports has increased. Some domestic refineries have reduced production due to the weakening of disproportionation profit, but the overall supply is relatively stable. The downstream start - up is weak, but the profit has been repaired to some extent [5][9][11][15][17]. - Supply and Demand of Styrene: The port inventory of styrene is high, but it is expected to decrease in December. The supply is expected to increase at the end of the month, while the downstream demand is weak, and the profit of 3S products is compressed [5][32][34][36]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - 3.1 Pure Benzene - Industrial Chain Price: Tracks the spot prices of pure benzene in East China, styrene in East China, EPS, PS, and ABS [45]. - External Price: Tracks the CFR price of pure benzene in China, FOB prices in South Korea, the US, and Rotterdam [48]. - Price Difference between Varieties: Tracks the price differences between pure benzene and naphtha (external market), styrene and pure benzene (external and internal markets) [50]. - Regional Price Difference: Tracks the price differences between Shandong and East China, China and South Korea, and the US and South Korea for pure benzene [55]. - Industrial Chain Profit: Tracks the production profit of pure benzene, the production profit of styrene by ethylbenzene dehydrogenation, and the profits of downstream products such as phenol, adipic acid, caprolactam, and aniline [59][60]. - Start - up Rate: Tracks the start - up rates of pure benzene, hydro - benzene, and downstream products such as styrene, caprolactam, phenol, aniline, and adipic acid [66][71]. - Port Inventory: Tracks the port inventory of pure benzene [67]. - 3.2 Styrene - Internal and External Prices: Tracks the spot price of styrene in East China, CFR price in China, and FOB prices in South Korea, the US, and Rotterdam [75]. - External Price Difference: Tracks the price differences between the internal and external markets of styrene, and between China and the US, South Korea, and Rotterdam [78]. - Industrial Chain Profit: Tracks the production profit of styrene by ethylbenzene dehydrogenation, POSM profit, and the profits of downstream products such as EPS, PS, and ABS [80]. - Industrial Chain Start - up: Tracks the start - up rates of styrene, PS, ABS, EPS, and phenol [82][83]. - Port Inventory: Tracks the port inventories of styrene in East China, South China, and overall [86].