聚酯产业链期货周报-20251208

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of PX, TA, EG, PF, and PR in the polyester industry chain are all expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term due to various factors such as supply - demand relationships, device maintenance, and raw material prices [3] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - PX: Supply has increased with some domestic devices resuming load and an overseas device shutting down for maintenance. PTA demand has declined, and there is inventory accumulation pressure in the first quarter and a de - stocking expectation in the second quarter. The short - term price is expected to be volatile. Trading strategies include a volatile unilateral position, a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage, and selling wide - straddles for options [3] - TA: PTA supply is abundant with some devices planning to restart, and demand in the polyester industry is weak in the off - season. The inventory accumulation pattern persists, and the price is expected to be volatile. Trading strategies are a volatile unilateral position, a monthly - difference positive arbitrage, and selling wide - straddles for options [3] - EG: The supply of ethylene glycol is increasing, demand in the polyester industry is weak in the off - season, and there is a large resistance to price increases. Trading strategies include a volatile unilateral position, a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage, and selling wide - straddles for options [3] - PF: The supply - demand situation of short - fiber is weak, and the price follows the raw material end to show a volatile trend. Trading strategies are a volatile unilateral position, a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage, and a wait - and - see approach for options [3] - PR: The supply of polyester bottle - chips is becoming more relaxed, demand is weak in the off - season, and the price follows the raw material end to show a volatile trend. Trading strategies are a volatile unilateral position and a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage [3] Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - PX: Supply is relatively loose before the maintenance. The price is supported by the upward trend of crude oil, and the decline space is limited. The price fluctuation is mainly affected by raw materials [5][7] - PTA: The load has decreased, supply is abundant, and the inventory accumulation pattern continues. The processing fee has weakened, and the valuation is low [9][11] - Ethylene Glycol: The supply remains at a high level, and the port inventory has decreased significantly. The basis has strengthened, the coal - making profit has expanded, and the oil - making loss has expanded [13][15] - Polyester: The load has weakened, and terminal demand has weakened seasonally. The profit of polyester filament has increased slightly, the production and sales have improved, and the inventory has decreased. The profit of short - fiber has shrunk, the load has increased, and the inventory has decreased. The profit of polyester bottle - chips is supported by the increase in raw materials, but the supply is expected to be more relaxed [20][22][24] Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - PX: Data on price, spread, profit, and supply - demand are presented, including the price trends of Asian PX and naphtha, various spread and profit indicators, and the PX start - up rate in China and Asia [27][32][43] - PTA: Data on price, spread, profit, supply - demand, and inventory are provided, such as the PTA spot price, various spread and profit indicators, the PTA start - up rate, and the PTA social inventory [48][51][68][71] - MEG: Data on price, spread, profit, and supply - demand are shown, including the MEG spot price, various spread and profit indicators, the MEG start - up rate, and the MEG port inventory [78][86][101][107] - Polyester: Data on profit, supply, and demand are presented, including the profit of polyester products, the start - up rate, inventory, and terminal demand indicators such as the开机率 of weaving and texturing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang [109][113][119]