中辉能化观点-20251208

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [2] - LPG: Bearish with potential rebounds [2] - L: Bearish trend continuation [2] - PP: Bearish trend continuation [2] - PVC: Bearish trend continuation [2] - PX/PTA: Buy on dips [4] - Ethylene Glycol: Bottom - side oscillation, look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [4] - Methanol: Add long positions on dips [4] - Urea: Buy on dips [4] - Natural Gas: Cautiously bullish [7] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [7] - Glass: Bearish trend continuation [7] - Soda Ash: Bearish trend continuation in the second phase [7] 2. Core Views of the Report - The market for most energy and chemical products is affected by factors such as supply - demand balance, geopolitical situations, and cost support. Some products face supply - side pressures, while others are influenced by seasonal demand changes and cost fluctuations. For example, crude oil is pressured by oversupply in the off - season, while natural gas is boosted by increased demand in the winter [2][7]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Performance: On the previous Friday, international oil prices rebounded, with WTI up 0.69%, Brent up 0.77%, and SC up 0.47% [8] - Basic Logic: Short - term support comes from the Ukraine's attack on the CPC pipeline and South American uncertainties. The core driver is the oversupply of crude oil in the off - season, with OPEC+ maintaining its production policy and global and US inventories rising [9] - Fundamentals: As of December 5, the US oil rig count increased by 6 to 413. Russia's Tuapse port's oil product exports in December are expected to increase by 21.4%. Market expects India's imports from Russia to reduce by nearly one - third. As of November 28, US crude and product inventories increased [10] - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of [445 - 455] for SC [11] LPG - Market Performance: On December 5, the PG main contract closed at 4294 yuan/ton, down 0.16% month - on - month. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4510 (+10), 4411 (+0), and 4470 (+0) yuan/ton respectively [15] - Basic Logic: It is closely related to the cost of crude oil. Although it rebounds with short - term oil price increases, the long - term oil price trend is downward. There is some support from downstream chemical demand, but MTBE blending demand has decreased. Supply has increased, while inventory has decreased [16] - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of [4250 - 4350] for PG [17] L - Market Performance: The L2601 contract closed at 6699 yuan/ton (-8). The basis was +31 yuan/ton (-22) [20] - Basic Logic: Cost support strengthened, leading to a short - term oversold rebound, but spot prices did not follow suit. The supply remains sufficient due to seasonal increases in domestic production. The peak season for shed films is ending, and oil prices may decline in the medium - term [21] - Strategy Recommendation: Exit short positions. Wait for rebounds to go short in the long - term. Pay attention to the range of [6750 - 6900] [21] PP - Market Performance: The PP2601 closed at 6265 yuan/ton (-52). The basis was +89 yuan/ton (+28) [24] - Basic Logic: The increase in the parking ratio has alleviated supply pressure, but demand remains weak, and there is a high inventory - reduction pressure. OPEC+ is still in the production - increase cycle, and oil prices may continue to decline. The production of propylene warehouse receipts may lead to a weak market [25] - Strategy Recommendation: It may be strong in the short - term. Wait for rebounds to go short in the long - term. Consider going long on PP processing fees. Pay attention to the range of [6350 - 6500] for PP and [5850 - 6000] for propylene [25] PVC - Market Performance: The V2601 closed at 4586 yuan/ton (+5). The basis was - 76 yuan/ton (-5) [27] - Basic Logic: High - level production has continued, and the main contract hit a record low at night. During the macro - policy window period, trading has returned to the weak fundamentals. High social inventory limits upward movement, but low valuation provides some support. Pay attention to the rhythm of capital position - shifting [28] - Strategy Recommendation: Wait and see in the short - term. Wait for continuous inventory reduction to go long in the long - term. Pay attention to the range of [4350 - 4500] [28] PTA - Market Performance: The TA05 closed at 4752 yuan/ton (+66) [29] - Basic Logic: The processing fee is generally low, and many domestic and overseas devices are under maintenance, reducing supply pressure. Downstream demand is currently good but is expected to weaken. PX is oscillating weakly. There is a risk of inventory accumulation in December [30] - Strategy Recommendation: Consider going long on the 05 contract on dips or conducting a 1 - 5 reverse spread. Pay attention to the range of [4635 - 4700] [31] Ethylene Glycol - Basic Logic: Domestic and overseas production loads have decreased, but the arrival volume has increased. Downstream demand is currently good but is expected to weaken. There is a risk of inventory accumulation in December. It has a low valuation but lacks upward momentum [33] - Strategy Recommendation: Look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of [3680 - 3770] [34] Methanol - Market Performance: Taicang spot prices have continued to weaken [37] - Basic Logic: High inventory restricts spot price rebounds. Domestic production loads have increased, while overseas production loads have decreased. Port inventory is decreasing, but the speed has slowed down. The arrival volume in December is expected to be about 1.3 billion tons. Demand has changed little, and cost support has weakened [37] - Strategy Recommendation: The rebound height of the main contract may be limited. Consider going long on the 05 contract on dips. Pay attention to the range of [2040 - 2080] for MA01 [39] Urea - Market Performance: The spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong has strengthened, with a basis of 47 (+25) yuan/ton [41] - Basic Logic: The daily output is currently high but is expected to decrease as some gas - based enterprises shut down for maintenance in mid - December. Demand is currently good but lacks sustainability. Social inventory has decreased slightly but is still at a high level. Exports have maintained a high growth rate since July [41] - Strategy Recommendation: Consider going long on dips with a light position. Pay attention to the range of [1665 - 1695] [43] Natural Gas - Market Performance: On December 5, the NG main contract closed at 5.063 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 1.36% month - on - month [45] - Basic Logic: Entering the consumption peak season, the extremely cold weather in the US has boosted heating demand. The number of US natural gas drilling platforms has decreased, and EU import bans on Russian gas will be gradually implemented. US natural gas inventory has decreased [46] - Strategy Recommendation: Gas prices are likely to rise in the short - term due to increased winter demand. Pay attention to the range of [4.980 - 5.185] [47] Asphalt - Market Performance: On December 5, the BU main contract closed at 2948 yuan/ton. Spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 2930 (-10), 3180 (+0), and 3000 (-50) yuan/ton respectively [50] - Basic Logic: It is mainly affected by the cost of crude oil. Oil prices have fallen due to geopolitical easing. The comprehensive profit of asphalt has decreased. Supply is expected to decrease in December, while demand has increased slightly. Inventory has decreased [51] - Strategy Recommendation: Continue to hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of [2900 - 3000] [52] Glass - Market Performance: The FG2601 closed at 1053 yuan/ton (-16). The basis was 77 yuan/ton (+16) [55] - Basic Logic: The daily melting volume has decreased, and multiple production lines are planned for cold repair in December. The real - estate market is weak, and demand remains low [56] - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the implementation of cold - repair plans in the short - term. Wait for rebounds to go short in the long - term. Pay attention to the range of [1020 - 1070] [56] Soda Ash - Market Performance: The SA2601 closed at 1239 yuan/ton (+25). The basis was - 39 yuan/ton (+5) [59] - Basic Logic: Warehouse receipts have continued to increase, putting pressure on the market through industrial hedging. Supply and demand have both decreased, and long - term supply is expected to be abundant [60] - Strategy Recommendation: Hold short positions on the 01 alkali - glass spread. Wait for rebounds to go short in the long - term. Pay attention to the range of [1150 - 1200] [60]