伊朗装船高位运行，甲醇冲高回落

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The开工率 of coal mines is stable. As of December 6, the开工 rate of coal mines in Ordos is 76%, and that in Yulin is 46%. The coal production in Ordos and Yulin is around 4 million tons per day, but the demand is declining, leading to continuous drops in pit - mouth prices. The profit of coal - to - methanol is around 380 - 460 yuan/ton, and the domestic supply of methanol is continuously abundant. The US dollar price is stable, the Iranian point reduction is decreasing, and the import parity is stable. Most Iranian plants are shut down due to gas restrictions, while the non - Iranian plants' operating rate is increasing. The import volume in January is expected to reach about 1.25 million tons. The MTO device operating rate has slightly increased. The port inventory has decreased, but the basis is still weak, and the inventory of inland enterprises has fluctuated slightly. Overall, the international device operating rate has declined, the port spot liquidity is sufficient, and the methanol market continues to be in an oscillatory state. The trading strategies are to gradually build long positions for 05 contracts on dips, hang on to the 5 - 9 positive spread arbitrage, and sell put options [3][4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Chapter One: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - The raw coal situation shows stable coal mine operation, with the recovery of production in Ordos and Yulin. However, demand is weak, causing coal prices to fall. The supply of methanol is abundant, with stable profits from coal - to - methanol production and high - level domestic operation. The import situation is affected by Iranian gas restrictions and non - Iranian supply adjustments. The demand from MTO devices shows a slight increase. The inventory situation includes a decrease in port inventory and narrow fluctuations in inland enterprise inventory. The overall market is oscillatory, and the trading strategies are proposed as mentioned above [3][4]. 3.2 Chapter Two: Weekly Data Tracking - Supply - Domestic: As of December 4, the overall operating load of domestic methanol plants is 76.19%, up 0.45 percentage points from last week and 2.18 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating load in the northwest region is 86.48%, up 0.55 percentage points from last week and 1.44 percentage points from the same period last year. The average operating load of non - integrated methanol plants is 68.26%, up 0.61 percentage points from last week [5]. - Supply - International: From November 29 to December 5, 2025, the international production is 931,455 tons, down 42,240 tons from last week, and the capacity utilization rate is 63.85%, down 2.90% from last week [5]. - Supply - Import: From November 27 to December 3, 2025, the sample arrival volume of Chinese methanol is 376,000 tons, including 354,700 tons of foreign vessels and 21,300 tons of domestic vessels [5]. - Demand - MTO: As of December 4, 2025, the weekly average capacity utilization rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region is 87.48%, up 0.39 percentage points from last week. The national olefin device operating rate is 91.78% [5]. - Demand - Traditional: The capacity utilization rate of dimethyl ether is 7.88%, unchanged from last week. The capacity utilization rate of acetic acid is 69.62%, with some plants restarting or having load adjustments. The formaldehyde operating rate is 42.91%, with some small - scale device adjustments [5]. - Demand - Direct Sales: The weekly signing volume of methanol sample production enterprises in the northwest region is 84,500 tons, up 33,500 tons (33,500 tons) from the previous statistical date, a 65.69% increase [5]. - Inventory - Enterprises: The inventory of production enterprises is 361,500 tons, down 12,200 tons from the previous period. The order backlog of sample enterprises is 239,700 tons, up 9,000 tons from the previous period, a 3.90% increase [5]. - Inventory - Ports: As of December 3, 2025, the total port inventory is 1.3494 million tons, down 14,100 tons from the previous period, with a 1,300 - ton increase in East China and a 15,400 - ton decrease in South China [5]. - Valuation: In the northwest region, the price of chemical coal has fallen, while the inland methanol auction price has risen. The profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia is around 460 yuan/ton, and in northern Shaanxi is 380 yuan/ton. The port - north line spread is 80 yuan/ton, and the port - northern Shandong spread is - 130 yuan/ton. The MTO loss has narrowed, and the basis is stable [5]. - Spot Price: The price in Taicang is 2080 (+90), and the price in the north line is 1990 (+30) [8].