2026年财政政策展望：积极的财政政策持续给力

Index Performance - The Hang Seng Index (HSI) closed at 26,085, up 0.6% for the day and 30.0% year-to-date (YTD) [2] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index (HSCEI) increased by 1.0% to 9,198, with a YTD gain of 26.2% [2] - The MSCI China index rose by 0.8% to 85, achieving a YTD increase of 31.6% [2] Commodity Price Performance - Brent Crude oil is priced at $64 per barrel, reflecting a 0.8% daily increase but a 10.6% decline YTD [3] - Gold prices are at $4,198 per ounce, showing a slight decrease of 0.2% but a significant YTD increase of 59.9% [3] - Copper prices rose by 1.5% to $11,621 per ton, with a YTD increase of 32.5% [3] Macro and Earnings Releases - China's exports decreased by 1.1% YoY, while imports increased by 1.0% YoY [4] - The US Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand rose by 2.7% [4] - New home sales in the US were reported at 800,000, exceeding the consensus of 718,000 [4] Fiscal Policy Outlook - The general public budget deficit ratio for 2025 is raised to 4%, with a broad fiscal deficit ratio expected to reach 8.7% [6] - Government bond financing for 2026 is projected at RMB12.28 trillion to support a fiscal deficit ratio of 8.6% [6] - General public budget revenue is expected to grow by 6.1% in 2026, reversing a 0.6% decline in 2025 [7] Market Strategy - The Hang Seng Index is projected to reach 30,100 by December 2026, based on a forecasted P/E ratio of 13.0, which is a 15% premium over the historical average [10] - Key investment opportunities include sectors focused on economic growth, technological innovation, and domestic consumption [10]