航运衍生品数据日报-20251208

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The container shipping market is complex. The INDAMEX route of CMA CGM will change to pass through the Suez Canal, which is an important progress for container ships to return to the Red Sea route. The FEWB route has low empty - sailing rates and reduced capacity due to ship maintenance, with port congestion and strong e - commerce demand supporting freight rates. The TAWB route has serious port congestion due to labor disputes. The European container shipping route's December contract is in the delivery month, and the market is verifying previous expectations. The overall market is under downward - adjustment expectations, and the key to future trends lies in the final announcement of the "late - month freight rates" [7][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Derivatives Data - Freight Rate Index: The present values of Shanghai Export Container Freight Composite Index (SCET), China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI), SCFI - US West, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - US East, and SCFI - Northwest Europe are 1398, 1115, 1550, 2315, and 1400 respectively, with corresponding declines of - 0.39%, - 0.62%, - 5.02%, - 14.29%, - 4.65%, and - 0.28%. The present value of SCFIS - Northwest Europe is 1483 with a decline of - 9.52%, and the present value of SCFI - Mediterranean is 2300 with an increase of 3.05% [6] - Contract Data: For contracts like EC2506, EC2608, EC2610, EC2512, EC2602, and EC2604, the present values are 1252.5, 1367.1, 1040.0, 1658.6, 1609.9, and 1092.9 respectively, with corresponding changes of - 0.21%, - 1.34%, - 0.02%, 0.58%, 1.57%, and 0.26% [6] - Position Data: The present positions of EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, EC2512, EC2602, and EC2604 are 2108, 1559, 3976, 3500, 32215, and 19350 respectively, with corresponding changes of - 33, 10, 15, - 231, - 2007, and 221 [6] - Monthly Spread Data: The present values of 12 - 02, 12 - 04, and 02 - 04 monthly spreads are 48.7, 565.7, and 517.0 respectively, with corresponding changes of - 15.4, 6.7, and 22.1 [6] 3.2 Market News and Analysis - Route Changes: CMA CGM's INDAMEX route will pass through the Suez Canal, which is an important step for container ships to return to the Red Sea route, increasing the traffic volume of this key route [7] - FEWB Route: In December, shipping companies strictly controlled capacity, with an empty - sailing rate of only 0.9%. Ship maintenance further reduced capacity. European northern and Mediterranean ports were congested, which extended ship turnaround and increased rejections. Strong e - commerce demand supported freight rates, and shipping companies promoted GRI to drive the market up, and the rates are expected to remain high during Christmas and New Year [7] - TAWB Route: Ports in Northern Europe (such as Rotterdam) and the Mediterranean were seriously congested due to labor disputes, with yard utilization rates exceeding 90%. Many European countries also faced container shortages [7] - European Container Shipping Route: In December, the contract entered the delivery month. Although there were some signs supporting the bulls (such as price increase letters), the overall market was under the pressure of downward - adjustment expectations. The key to future trends is the final announcement of the "late - month freight rates", especially the performance of freight rates in mid - to - late December [8] 3.3 Strategy - The strategy is to wait and see as the December contract is gradually losing trading value [9]