聚酯周报：芳烃调油预期弱化，聚酯震荡偏弱-20251208

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the report is "oscillating", indicating that there is no obvious driving force, and it is expected to be mainly on the strong side [4]. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The gasoline cracking profit has declined, and the gasoline blending performance has weakened. The economics of the PX industry chain is significantly differentiated. The PX - naphtha spread has widened to $252, reflecting raw material cost pressure, while the by - product benzene price has dropped sharply, weakening the overall profit of the combined aromatics unit. The PTA supply is slightly tightened, and the polyester industry's operating rate remains stable, with the overall load above 90%. Although domestic demand is seasonally weak, the polyester factory's inventory is at a medium - low level, and the cancellation of India's BIS certification is expected to drive export growth [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - Supply: The gasoline cracking profit has declined, and the PX - naphtha spread has widened to $252, reflecting raw material cost pressure. The by - product benzene price has dropped sharply, weakening the overall profit of the combined aromatics unit [4]. - Demand: The PTA supply is slightly tightened, and the polyester industry's operating rate remains stable above 90%. Although domestic demand is seasonally weak, the polyester factory's inventory is at a medium - low level, and the cancellation of India's BIS certification is expected to drive export growth [4]. - Inventory: The PTA port inventory has increased by 0.17 tons this week, and the market is slightly accumulating inventory [4]. - Base - spread: The PTA base - spread has continued to strengthen, and the PTA profit remains at a low level [4]. - Profit: The PX - naphtha spread is $252, and the PTA processing fee remains at a low level of around 200 [4]. - Valuation: The PTA price is at a medium - low level, the reformer unit profit has declined, and the load of overseas PX units is affected [4]. - Macro - policy: There is no significant impact on the market, and it is considered neutral [4]. - Investment View: There is no obvious driving force, and it is expected to be mainly on the strong side [4]. - Trading Strategy: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to geopolitical risks [4]. Part Two: Oil Product Fundamental Overview - Interest Rate Expectation: On December 4th, a Reuters survey showed that 82% of economists (89 out of 108) believed that the Fed would cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the December interest rate decision to support the cooling labor market, which was consistent with the nearly 85% probability of interest rate cuts in the interest rate futures market [8]. - Personnel Arrangement Speculation: Trump's staff and allies are discussing a personnel arrangement. If Trump appoints Hassett as the next Fed chairman, the current Treasury Secretary Bessent may also serve as the director of the White House National Economic Council, but the arrangement has not been finalized [8]. - Gasoline Market: US gasoline inventory is accumulating, and demand is seasonally weakening. Although the US holiday travel demand has increased, energy prices are generally falling, and the RBOB gasoline price has also declined. The EIA data shows that the unexpected increase in US crude oil and gasoline inventories has further suppressed prices. The market's optimistic sentiment about the Russia - Ukraine peace negotiation has increased the expectation of Russian crude oil returning to the market, also putting pressure on oil prices. OPEC+ maintains its production - cut stance and has no short - term plan to increase production [23]. Part Three: Aromatic Hydrocarbon Fundamental Overview - Aromatic Hydrocarbon Market in Asia: The refined oil market in Asia has a structural shortage. The naphtha price has fallen due to weak petrochemical demand and the competition of low - price LPG. The gasoline and reformate markets are strong. The Asian reformate has a premium of $81/ton over naphtha, and refineries generally prioritize internal supply for gasoline blending rather than external sales for chemical use. The short - term reformate market will remain tight [42]. - Mixed Xylene Market: The overseas mixed xylene market is under pressure, and the price has significantly declined. The RBOB gasoline price has dropped, and the arbitrage window between the US and Asia has closed. The decline in mixed xylene is limited by PX demand support. The supply of mixed xylene is restricted by the maintenance of multiple key aromatic hydrocarbon and cracking units [47]. - PX Market: The PX price is stable at a high level, and the structural contradiction is intensifying. The domestic PTA demand is strong, especially after India cancelled the BIS certification for PTA imports. The PX - naphtha spread has widened to $252, and the PX - benzene spread has only slightly increased to $210, weakening the overall profit of the combined aromatics unit. Some PX production units are shut down or under maintenance, and the PX supply growth is limited [55]. Part Four: Polyester Fundamental Overview - Ethylene Glycol Market: The ethylene glycol price in East China is difficult to be effectively supported due to the continuous decline in coal prices. The new device production has increased the market supply pressure, and the return of coal - based ethylene glycol devices has also put pressure on the market. However, the increase in polyester export inquiries is expected to boost the demand for textile and clothing exports [78]. - Polyester Market: The polyester industry maintains a high load, but the demand is seasonally weakening. Export demand has become a supporting force. The cancellation of India's BIS certification is expected to drive export growth, and the PTA consumption is close to the historical high set in May [4][55].