现货价格下跌，盘面震荡偏弱

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is that the short - term market has no obvious drivers, and it is expected to be mainly in a volatile state [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - The spot price of caustic soda is falling, and the futures market is fluctuating weakly. Supply, demand, and macro - policies are neutral, while inventory, profit, and valuation are bearish [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: This week, maintenance decreased, and production increased. The weekly domestic caustic soda production rose by 0.8 million tons to 84 million tons. The average capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 86.0%, a week - on - week increase of 1.0%. Loads in North, Central, and East China increased [3]. - Demand: Alumina production declined, non - aluminum demand was weak. The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry was 91.29%, unchanged from last week. The comprehensive operating rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 64.46%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.07% [3]. - Inventory: Due to weak downstream demand and poor receiving enthusiasm, caustic soda inventory increased. The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 504,800 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 7.43% and a year - on - year increase of 79.32% [3]. - Basis: The current basis of the main contract is around 87, and the futures price is at a discount [3]. - Profit: The average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 13 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 46%. The theoretical production cost of caustic soda increased, and the overall chlor - alkali profit decreased [3]. - Valuation: The spot price is at a low level, and the absolute futures price is relatively low. The near - month contract is slightly at a discount [3]. - Macro - policy: The anti - involution sentiment in the energy and chemical sector has subsided, and the market trades based on fundamentals [3]. - Investment View: The short - term market has no obvious drivers, and it is expected to be mainly in a volatile state [3]. - Trading Strategy: No unilateral or arbitrage strategies are recommended currently. Pay attention to changes in liquid chlorine prices, reserve policies, and the global economic recession [3]. 3.2 Review of Futures and Spot Market - Futures Market: This week, Shandong's spot market was weak, and the futures market had weak bottom support. The liquid chlorine price was higher than in the first half of the year and increased this week, fluctuating around 200 yuan/ton. The comprehensive chlor - alkali profit was close to the break - even line. The spot price is expected to decline in a volatile manner. Follow - up attention should be paid to changes in liquid chlorine and the alumina production schedule [9]. - Spot Market: The spot price of caustic soda continued to fall and has not yet stabilized. Due to the "buy on rising" psychology, demand is difficult to increase [9]. - Open Interest: The total open interest increased, and the far - month contracts saw an increase in positions [25]. 3.3 Fundamental Data of Caustic Soda Supply and Demand - Electricity Price: Coal supply was tight, and electricity prices rose [33]. - Device Loss and Capacity Utilization: The device loss and capacity utilization data are presented in a chart, and the overall capacity utilization rate showed certain trends [36]. - Production in Main Producing Areas: Maintenance in North China decreased, and production increased. The production data of different regions in different years are presented in a chart [38]. - Chlor - alkali Profit: The comprehensive chlor - alkali profit decreased [39]. - Downstream Prices: Alumina prices declined, and non - aluminum prices were weak [42]. - Alumina: Alumina production recovered, and inventory increased. Due to the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new devices, the production rate of alumina in Henan increased significantly. The supply - demand balance of alumina was restored, and inventory increased. The inventory of bauxite at ports decreased, and alumina profit was good and remained stable year - on - year [54][65]. - Non - aluminum Demand: Non - aluminum production remained stable but was lower than the same period last year. The non - aluminum industry entered a seasonal off - season, and production began to decline [66]. - Liquid Chlorine Downstream: The production rate rebounded [74]. - Subsequent Maintenance Information: Multiple enterprises in different regions have maintenance plans, including full - stop, half - load, and planned maintenance at different times [78].