玻璃2026年报：冷修环保短线机会，供大于求整体弱势

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply - demand contradiction in the glass industry will be further exacerbated in 2026, accelerating the transmission from the mid - stream trading and processing links to the upstream raw sheet production and supply end, and promoting capacity clearance. The cold - repair pressure on production lines will be greater, with small production lines of around 600 tons per day likely to be shut down. The daily melting volume may need to drop below 130,000 tons to match the demand reduction, and without large - scale inventory reduction, the spot price has limited room for improvement [1][33][40]. - In 2026, there may be short - term opportunities due to unplanned cold - repairs of glass production lines and the news of natural gas conversion in Hubei, but it is difficult to bottom - fish. The annual futures price is expected to operate weakly at the bottom of the cost line [3][42]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Price Trend Review - In 2025, the glass market showed a trend of first falling, then rising, and then falling again, with the futures weighted fluctuating between 958 - 1,470 yuan/ton. The overall supply exceeded demand, and high inventories in the mid - upstream suppressed the spot price and affected the futures rebound. Policies such as "Supply - side 2.0" and "Anti - involution" temporarily boosted the market, but the market sentiment weakened after the macro - meetings, and the market returned to the weak fundamentals [6]. - At the beginning of the year, the rescue of Vanke by the Shenzhen government and the rumored new energy - consumption restriction policy boosted the price. However, concerns about downstream demand due to the poor resumption of work at construction sites and insufficient downstream orders led to a setback in the price increase. In February, high inventory in Hubei led to price cuts, and the failure of policy expectations and the impact of international factors caused the futures to decline in the first half of the year. In July, policy expectations drove a short - term rise, but subsequent market sentiment cooling led to a sharp correction. In October, the traditional peak - season demand was disappointing, and the market turned down again. Near the end of the year, cold - repairs of production lines slightly pushed up the price, but the upward space of near - month contracts was limited [6][8]. 3.2 2025 Glass Supply and Demand Review and Analysis 3.2.1 Supply Review and Analysis - From January to October 2025, the cumulative output of flat glass in China was 805 million weight boxes, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%. The daily melting volume remained stable below 160,000 tons. There were 5 newly - ignited production lines with a total new daily melting volume of 3,610 tons, 17复产 production lines with a total daily melting volume of 12,100 tons, and 28 cold - repaired or shut - down production lines with a total daily melting volume of 18,370 tons. As of early December, the daily melting volume was 156,155 tons per day, a decrease of 1.1% compared to the beginning of the year and 1.8% year - on - year [9]. 3.2.2 Demand Review and Analysis - Deep - processing demand: From January to October 2025, the output of tempered glass decreased by 6.8%, and the average operating rate of low - e was 44.9%, a year - on - year decrease of 7%. Mid - stream glass processing plants had a cold business due to factors such as tight funds, lack of demand, and the risk of business closures. Mid - stream enterprises mainly replenished inventory at low prices, and the active purchasing times corresponded to the low - price intervals of the spot [17]. - Terminal demand: The real - estate data continued to deteriorate in 2025. Although there was a slight improvement in sales in the first half of the year and in construction and completion indicators in the second half, real - estate development investment continued to weaken. In the automotive industry, production and sales increased rapidly due to policies and market factors, and new - energy vehicles became the mainstream in October [20]. 3.2.3 Inventory Review and Analysis - The inventory in the Shahe area remained similar to that of last year, while the inventory in the central China region increased rapidly, with Hubei becoming a price depression. The national factory inventory was generally at a high level of 60 - 70 million weight boxes. Although the inventory decreased in July due to the actions of futures - cash merchants, the social inventory increased in the second half of the year, leading to a decline in the spot and futures prices [23]. 3.3 2026 Glass Supply and Demand Forecast 3.3.1 Supply Forecast - In 2025, the average daily melting volume was 158,000 tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons year - on - year, while the visible inventory of national factories was basically the same as last year, and the invisible social inventory increased significantly. In 2026, the pressure for cold - repairs of production lines will be greater, mainly shutting down small production lines of around 600 tons per day. It is predicted that the daily melting volume may need to drop below 130,000 tons to match the demand reduction. There are 4 potential newly - ignited production lines with a total design capacity of 3,700 tons per day, 5 potential复产 production lines with a total capacity of 3,450 tons per day, and 15 potential cold - repaired production lines with a total capacity of 9,900 tons per day [30]. 3.3.2 Demand Forecast - Since the new construction area has been declining by more than 20% annually since 2022, the demand at the real - estate completion end will continue to decline. The supply - demand mismatch in the glass industry has spread from the real - estate end to the mid - stream trading and processing links. In 2026, the contradiction will further worsen, and the overall demand for glass will still be insufficient, despite the increasing demand for some products such as second - hand housing decoration glass, automotive glass, and electronic ultra - thin glass [33]. 3.3.3 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The supply - demand balance sheet shows the supply, demand, and inventory data from November 2025 to February 2026E, reflecting the supply - demand relationship and inventory changes in different periods [40]. 3.4 Summary - Supply - demand contradiction and capacity clearance: The supply - demand contradiction in the glass industry will continue to worsen in 2026, accelerating the transmission from the mid - stream to the upstream and promoting capacity clearance. The cold - repair pressure on production lines will increase, and it is difficult for the price to rise without a significant reduction in inventory [40]. - Short - term opportunities and overall trend: In 2026, there may be short - term opportunities due to unplanned cold - repairs and the news of natural gas conversion in Hubei, but the overall futures price is expected to operate weakly at the bottom of the cost line [42].