底部支撑渐显，波动中导机遇：豆粕年报

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The market currently maintains the expectation of a bumper harvest of South American soybeans in the 2025/26 season. The increase in the global total soybean supply is lower than that of the total demand, and the ending inventory and inventory-to-sales ratio have both declined from high levels, with the supply-demand pattern slightly tightening. However, the supply-demand pattern remains loose [1][3][40]. - In 2026, it is expected that the domestic inventories of hogs and poultry will remain at high levels, supporting feed demand. Although the overall inventory is expected to decline slightly compared to 2025, the proportion of soybean meal added to feed is expected to increase year-on-year due to its improved cost-effectiveness and lower price. High inventories and cost-effectiveness will support the demand for soybean meal, which is expected to remain above 85 million tons in 2026, corresponding to a soybean volume of over 100 million tons [1][40][41]. - The cost of Brazilian soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 950 cents per bushel. The domestic cost of soybean meal from Brazilian soybeans during the supply season (May - August) is calculated to be 2,580 yuan per ton, and it rises to 2,760 yuan per ton from July - September. The planting cost of US soybeans in the second half of the 2025/26 season is 1,000 cents per bushel, and the domestic import cost of US soybeans is calculated to be 3,000 yuan per ton. The overall crushing profit from December - January is maintained between -100 yuan per ton and -200 yuan per ton, while the crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans is around 30 yuan per ton, which is at a relatively good level compared to historical periods [2][41]. - In 2026, the domestic soybean meal market will have strong supply and demand, and inventory accumulation will continue. Before the South American production increase is realized, the downside space for soybean meal is relatively limited, but once the production increase is realized, the risk of price decline will intensify [3][42]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - In 2025, the soybean meal market fluctuated between "weak reality and strong expectation" throughout the year, showing a pattern of "increased volatility in the first half and consolidation in the second half". The annual average price of the main contract fluctuated around 3,020 yuan per ton, with a price difference of 387 yuan per ton between the high and low points [7]. - From January - March, policy disturbances led to a mismatch between supply and demand, pushing up prices. The spot price of soybean meal rose from 2,980 yuan per ton at the beginning of January to 3,050 yuan per ton at the end of the month, and the futures main contract rebounded to 3,030 yuan per ton. In February, due to the Spring Festival holiday, the oil mill operating rate dropped to 58%, and the inventory fell to a low of 650,000 tons. The basis strengthened to 350 yuan per ton, and the spot price soared to 3,120 yuan per ton. In March, the failure of state - owned enterprises to sell reserved soybeans as scheduled and tightened port clearance led to a shortage of spot supply, with the basis once exceeding 800 yuan per ton and the futures main contract reaching a high of 3,240 yuan per ton [7]. - From April - June, the abundant supply suppressed prices. In late April, South American soybeans arrived at ports in large quantities, with the monthly arrival volume reaching 9.2 million tons. The oil mill operating rate rebounded to 78%, and the soybean meal inventory quickly accumulated to 980,000 tons. The price started to decline, with the spot average price dropping from 3,100 yuan per ton to 3,010 yuan per ton. In May, the export progress of Brazilian soybeans exceeded expectations, the crushing profit of domestic oil mills improved, and the operating rate remained high. Coupled with weak demand in the breeding industry due to losses, the soybean meal price continued to decline to 2,950 yuan per ton. In June, the expected increase in the US soybean planting area led the market to trade the logic of a bumper harvest in advance, with the futures main contract reaching a low of 2,860 yuan per ton and the spot average price dropping to 2,900 yuan per ton [8]. - From July - September, there was a game between weather disturbances and high inventory pressure. In July, a temporary drought in North America led to a downward adjustment of the expected yield per unit area of US soybeans, causing the futures main contract to rebound to 3,020 yuan per ton. However, the spot inventory remained as high as 1.1 million tons, and some oil mills stopped production due to full storage. The spot price only rebounded to 2,960 yuan per ton. In August, the export of South American soybeans was coming to an end, and the domestic soybean arrival volume decreased by 15% month - on - month. However, the peak season demand for aquaculture was lower than expected, and the price fluctuated in the range of 2,980 - 3,030 yuan per ton. In September, Argentina's cancellation of the soybean export tax led to an expected decline in import costs, and the double - festival stocking was lower than expected. The spot average price decreased by 0.5% month - on - month to 3,013 yuan per ton, a 2.74% decline compared to the same period last year [8]. - From October - December, the market was in a process of bottom - building and expectation repair. In October, the soybean import volume increased by 17.25% year - on - year to 9.482 million tons, and the supply remained abundant. However, the futures market was driven by the expectation of a US soybean yield reduction, and the main contract rebounded from a low of 2,852 yuan per ton, with a monthly increase of 4.9%. In November, the USDA report lowered the expected yield per unit area of US soybeans to 53 bushels per acre, but the export forecast was also lowered. The market showed a pattern of rising and then回调, with the main contract fluctuating in the range of 3,000 - 3,089 yuan per ton, and the spot average price slightly decreasing to 3,036 yuan per ton. In December, the sowing of South American soybeans was basically completed, and the expectation of a bumper harvest suppressed the upside space of prices. The main contract returned to a consolidation state, and the spot average price at the end of the month was expected to remain around 3,040 yuan per ton [9]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Global Supply - Demand Analysis - Supply Side: The global soybean supply pattern in the 2025/2026 season is loose. The USDA estimates the global soybean output to reach 422 million tons, with a stock - to - consumption ratio of 19.9%. South America is the core supply area, with Brazil's soybean output reaching a record high. The CONAB maintains the output forecast for the 2025/2026 season at 177.6 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%, and the USDA also estimates a bumper harvest of 175 million tons. Although some areas in Mato Grosso had to replant due to drought in October, the overall production situation is stable. Argentina's output is expected to decline year - on - year, with the Rosario Exchange estimating 47 million tons, lower than the previous year's 49.5 million tons, but still at a historically high level. However, affected by the La Nina weather from December - January, the sowing of Argentine soybeans is slow, and the output may be affected to varying degrees. In the North American market, the output of US soybeans in the 2025/2026 season was lowered to 4.253 billion bushels due to insufficient precipitation in the main producing areas in August, with a yield per unit area of 53 bushels per acre. The export performance is weak, with the USDA estimating the export volume at 1.635 billion bushels, a significant decline from the previous year's 1.875 billion bushels. The main reason is that under the 13% tariff, the discount of US soybeans is higher than that of Brazilian soybeans, lacking the advantage of crushing profit, which leads to insufficient enthusiasm for commercial procurement by Chinese enterprises [12]. - Demand Side: The total global demand for soybean meal is estimated to be 422 million tons, showing a steady increase compared to the previous year. The global soybean consumption is basically the same as the output. Regionally, China accounts for more than 29% of the consumption and is still the world's largest consumer market. The estimated import volume of Chinese soybeans in the 2025/26 season is 112 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4 million tons. In Asia, the large - scale development of the breeding industry drives the rigid growth of feed demand, supporting the import demand for soybean meal. In Europe, affected by environmental protection policies, the growth rate of the breeding scale has slowed down, and the demand growth is moderate. In the Americas, the demand for local feed and the biodiesel industry complement each other, and the overall demand is stable. There is significant regional demand differentiation. In emerging markets, due to population growth and the upgrading of meat consumption, the growth rate of soybean meal demand exceeds 5%. In developed countries, due to the improvement of breeding efficiency and the application of alternative raw materials, the demand growth rate is maintained at around 2%. Sino - US trade policies have reshaped the global trade flow, presenting a pattern of "South America supplying Asia, North America supplying itself and neighboring regions". Brazil's soybean export volume is expected to account for more than 50% of the global total, with 74% of its exports going to China. The proportion of US soybean exports to China is only 17.6%, a decrease of more than 30 percentage points compared to before the trade friction, and more US soybeans are flowing to Europe and the South American local market [14][15]. 3.2.2 Domestic Supply - Demand Analysis - Supply Side: In 2025, the domestic soybean import volume reached 113 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.39%. From January - October, the cumulative import volume was 95.682 million tons. The import structure shows a significant trade policy orientation, with South American soybeans accounting for more than 85% (78% from Brazil and 7% from Argentina) and US soybeans accounting for 10.6%, mainly from state - owned trade procurement under the Sino - US trade agreement, with a very low proportion of commercial imports. The estimated arrival volume in November was 9.685 million tons, and in December it was 7 million tons, with a continuous abundant supply. The soybean inventory remained at a high level. As of the end of November, the national oil mill soybean inventory was 7.6195 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.20%, and there was over - storage in some areas. The crushing volume also increased significantly, with the annual crushing volume reaching a record high of 101 million tons. The average operating rate of oil mills was maintained at around 72%. In the first quarter, the operating rate was low due to policy disturbances, and it rebounded to 75% - 80% in the second and third quarters as the soybean arrival volume increased. Affected by Sino - US trade policies, the proportion of US soybeans crushed by coastal oil mills was less than 8%, far lower than 35% in 2017, mainly concentrated in large - scale oil mills with state - owned trade quotas, while small and medium - sized oil mills still mainly used Brazilian soybeans as raw materials. The soybean meal output increased in tandem with the crushing volume, with an annual output of about 83 million tons. The inventory showed the characteristics of "de - stocking in the first half of the year and inventory accumulation in the second half". As of the end of November, the national oil mill soybean meal inventory was 998,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 23.67%, and it was at a historically high level [18][19]. - Demand Side: In 2025, the domestic soybean meal consumption was over 85 million tons, with feed consumption accounting for more than 95%. The demand from the breeding industry is the core support. In the pig - breeding industry, although it was in a loss state for most of the year, the process of reducing production capacity was slow, and the inventory remained at a high level, supporting the demand for soybean meal in pig feed. In the poultry - breeding industry, due to the short cycle and flexible adjustment, there was a reduction in production capacity in some periods, leading to a decrease in demand. In the aquaculture industry, affected by the unfavorable weather in the fourth quarter of 2024, the stock volume decreased year - on - year, and the peak - season demand was lower than expected. In terms of industrial consumption, the deep - processing industry of soybean meal has developed steadily, and the demand in the fields of protein feed and food additives has increased by about 3%, but the proportion is still less than 5%, having a limited impact on the overall demand. The downstream procurement model is significantly affected by the fluctuations in Sino - US trade costs, showing the characteristics of "mainly meeting rigid demand and making long - term arrangements". When the US soybean tariff is high and the import cost is uncertain, feed enterprises mainly purchase soybean meal produced from Brazilian soybeans and replenish inventory on a rolling basis [21]. 3.3 Impact Analysis of Sino - US Trade Cooperation on the Soybean Meal Market - 2025 Sino - US Soybean Trade Review: In 2025, Sino - US soybean trade was in a state of "low - intensity implementation under the agreement framework". The annual export volume of US soybeans to China was about 12 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 65%, and only 60% of the annual agreement target was completed. This was mainly restricted by three factors: First, the 13% tariff rate remained unchanged, resulting in the arrival cost of US soybeans being 180 - 220 yuan per ton higher than that of Brazilian soybeans, lacking the advantage of crushing profit. Second, the enthusiasm for commercial procurement was insufficient. Private oil mills were unable to participate in US soybean imports due to losses in import crushing profit. Third, there were issues with logistics and customs clearance efficiency. For some batches of purchases, the arrival cycle was 7 - 10 days longer than that of Brazilian soybeans due to differences in port customs clearance procedures. In terms of the import structure, US soybean imports were mainly concentrated in large - scale state - owned trade enterprises, accounting for more than 90%, and the proportion of private oil mill imports was less than 10%. The import periods were concentrated in March - April and October - November, corresponding to the low domestic soybean inventory and the agreement implementation window period respectively. Trade data shows that in 2025, among China's soybean import sources, the proportion of US soybeans was 10.6%, a significant decrease from 35% in 2017, while the proportion of Brazilian soybeans increased to 78%, forming a pattern of "dominated by Brazil, supplemented by the US" [24]. - Core Variables of Trade Policy: The core policy constraint in current Sino - US soybean trade is the tariff rate. US soybeans exported to China are subject to a 13% most - favored - nation tariff rate, while Brazilian soybeans enjoy relevant preferential policies in the South American Free Trade Area, with an actual effective tariff rate of 3%. In the detailed rules for the 2026 grain import tariff quota issued by the National Development and Reform Commission in October 2025, soybeans were not included in the exclusive quota management, and the current tariff policy was continued, indicating that the probability of short - term tariff adjustment is low, but there is still room for marginal policy relaxation. In terms of the quota mechanism, the 2026 grain import tariff quota mainly covers wheat, corn, and rice, and there is no exclusive quota limit for soybean imports. However, state - owned trade enterprises still dominate US soybean imports. Private and foreign - funded oil mills need to purchase through market - based channels. Coupled with the tariff cost, the competitiveness of US soybeans in the domestic market continues to be weaker than that of Brazilian soybeans. The core impact path of trade policy is "tariff rate → import cost → crushing profit → soybean meal supply → price elasticity". In 2025, due to the high - level tariff, the import cost of US soybeans remained high, resulting in the domestic soybean meal market relying more on South American soybeans for supply, and the price fluctuations were highly correlated with the production and export rhythm of South America [25]. - Transmission Effect of Trade Cooperation on the Market: In terms of price transmission, changes in Sino - US trade policies affect the import cost of US soybeans, change the domestic soybean supply structure, and then transmit to the soybean meal price. In March and October 2025, two trade negotiation rumors both triggered fluctuations in the soybean meal futures market, with a fluctuation range of 150 - 200 yuan per ton, reflecting the market's sensitivity to marginal changes in trade policies. In terms of cost transmission, for every 1 - percentage - point decrease in the US soybean tariff, the domestic soybean import cost can be reduced by 30 - 40 yuan per ton, and the corresponding soybean meal cost can be reduced by 50 - 60 yuan per ton. If the tariff is reduced to the benchmark rate of 3%, US soybeans will regain the cost advantage, and it is expected that their export proportion to China will rise to over 20% [26