11月ADP就业数据走弱，但12月降息与否仍不确定

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, domestic commodities fluctuated and declined, still in a range - bound oscillation with different sectors showing divergent trends. Industrial products and agricultural products indexes both fluctuated downwards, while gold and non - ferrous sectors performed strongly due to the rising expectation of the Fed's December interest - rate cut. The black - goods sector was weak, and the energy - chemical sector oscillated. Overseas, the weak ADP employment data supported the Fed's possible December interest - rate cut, but there was great uncertainty. If Hassett became the next Fed chair, he might support faster rate cuts. The Bank of Japan's governor hinted at a December rate hike. Domestically, in November, the macro - economic climate was stable but declined slightly, and although the full - year "guaranteeing 5%" target was achievable, future domestic demand remained weak. Commodity prices may maintain an oscillatory pattern, and attention should be paid to policy guidance and central banks' decisions [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Viewpoints - Market Review: This week, domestic commodities oscillated and declined, with different sectors showing different trends. Industrial products and agricultural products indexes declined, while gold and non - ferrous sectors were strong due to the rising Fed rate - cut expectation; the black - goods sector was weak because of domestic economic weakness and cooling policy expectations; the energy - chemical sector oscillated due to the intertwining of multiple factors [4]. - Overseas Situation: The ADP employment data in November showed a reduction of 32,000 private - sector jobs, the largest decline since March 2023. After the data release, traders expected a nearly 90% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut. The weak data supported a possible December rate cut, but there was great uncertainty. Trump seemed to have pre - selected Hassett as the Fed chair, with an over 80% probability according to Kalshi. If elected, Hassett might support faster rate cuts, but he needed to convince other FOMC members. The Bank of Japan's governor hinted at a December rate hike, which was earlier than market expectations [4]. - Domestic Situation: In November, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.2, non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5, and the composite PMI was 49.7%. The manufacturing PMI slightly rebounded, but the service industry PMI declined significantly, and the overall macro - economic climate was stable but declined. Future domestic demand remained weak, but the full - year "guaranteeing 5%" target was achievable. Attention should be paid to the Politburo meeting, the Central Economic Work Conference, and the Fed's interest - rate meeting in December [4]. - Commodity Outlook: Commodities may maintain an oscillatory pattern due to the intertwining of multiple macro - factors. Uncertainty about the Fed's December rate cut, the Bank of Japan's possible rate hike, weak domestic economic growth, and geopolitical changes may all cause market fluctuations. Attention should be paid to central banks' decisions [4]. PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - The ADP employment data in November was weak, which supported the Fed's possible December rate cut, but there was great uncertainty. Trump seemed to pre - select Hassett as the Fed chair, and if elected, he might support faster rate cuts but needed to convince other FOMC members. The Bank of Japan's governor hinted at a December rate hike, earlier than market expectations [4]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - PMI: In November, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49.2, non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5, and composite PMI was 49.7%. The manufacturing PMI slightly rebounded, but the service industry PMI declined significantly. The overall macro - economic climate was stable but declined, and future domestic demand remained weak. The full - year "guaranteeing 5%" target was achievable, and attention should be paid to relevant meetings in December [25]. - REITs: In December, the REITs market showed certain trends. In November 2025, there were some changes in the REITs market compared with the previous period [29]. - Other Economic Indicators: In 2025, there were comparisons of some economic indicators with 2024, such as GDP - related data, showing certain growth and changes in the economic structure [30]. PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - Industrial Production: The operating rates of the polyester industry chain and blast furnaces showed different trends at different times. For example, in December, the operating rates of PTA and POY were 74.1% and 89.00% respectively [41]. - Automobile Sales: In November and December, the wholesale and retail data of automobile manufacturers showed certain growth rates and changes, such as a 24.29%, 25.61%, and 30.47% increase in some data [48]. - Agricultural Product Prices: In December, the average wholesale prices of some agricultural products such as vegetables, pork, fruits, and the agricultural product wholesale price 200 - index showed different trends [50].