贵金属日评20251208：全球债务膨胀预期支撑贵金属价格-20251208

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that the Fed's expected rate cut in December, global debt expansion, central bank gold - buying, and geopolitical risks are likely to support precious metal prices in the medium - to - long - term. However, the high price of platinum may curb downstream demand, and the supply - demand situation of lithium is expected to shift from tight to loose, which may lead to price adjustments for both [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Precious Metal Market Data - Gold: Shanghai gold futures' closing price was 958.27 yuan/gram, with a change of 7.56 compared to the previous day and - 2.27 compared to the previous week. International gold's COMEX futures active contract closing price was 4227.70 dollars/ounce, with a change of - 10.20 compared to the previous day and 31.60 compared to the previous week [1]. - Silver: Shanghai silver futures' closing price was 13687.00 yuan/ten - grams, with a change of 263.00 compared to the previous day and 409.00 compared to the previous week. International silver's COMEX futures active contract closing price was 58.80 dollars/ounce, with a change of 1.27 compared to the previous day and 5.04 compared to the previous week [1]. 3.2 Important Information - China's gold reserves at the end of November were reported at 74.12 million ounces (about 2305.39 tons), a month - on - month increase of 30,000 ounces (about 0.93 tons), marking the 13th consecutive month of increase [1]. - The Fed's favored inflation indicator, the September core PCE index, increased by 2.8% year - on - year, in line with expectations, and real personal spending stagnated. US consumer confidence ended a four - month decline, and short - term inflation expectations dropped to the lowest point at the beginning of the year [1]. 3.3 Multi - and Short - Logic - Gold and Silver: The mixed performance of the US economic and employment data, along with some Fed officials' support for a December rate cut, keeps the probability of a December rate cut above 80%. Fiscal easing policies in multiple countries lead to expectations of debt expansion and fiscal deficit growth, and central banks' continuous gold - buying, along with geopolitical risks, may support precious metal prices in the medium - to - long - term [1]. - Platinum: High mining costs, unstable power supply, and aging equipment limit platinum production, while increased demand from traditional fuel and hybrid vehicles due to stricter emission standards and optimistic demand from other industries lead to a tight global platinum supply - demand situation in 2025 - 2026. However, high platinum prices may curb downstream demand [1]. - Lithium: Supply is affected by deep - mine mining, power shortages, etc., but increased recycling is expected. Demand from the automotive industry is expected to decline, while demand from other industries has low elasticity. The global lithium supply - demand situation is expected to shift from tight to loose in 2025 - 2026 [1]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - Gold and Silver: When prices decline, it is advisable to go long. For London gold, pay attention to support levels around 3900 - 4100 and resistance levels around 4300 - 4600; for Shanghai gold, support levels are around 890 - 920 and resistance levels are around 970 - 1000. For London silver, support levels are around 49 - 54 and resistance levels are around 59 - 63; for Shanghai silver, support levels are around 12500 - 15000 and resistance levels are around 14000 - 15000 [1]. - Platinum: Temporarily stay on the sidelines for single - side trading. Hold "long platinum, short palladium" positions cautiously. For London platinum, pay attention to support levels around 1300 - 1500 and resistance levels around 1800 - 2000; for domestic platinum, support levels are around 335 - 385 and resistance levels are around 465 - 516 [1]. - Lithium: Temporarily stay on the sidelines for single - side trading. For London lithium, pay attention to support levels around 1190 - 1390 and resistance levels around 1600 - 1800; for domestic lithium, support levels are around 305 - 357 and resistance levels are around 415 - 465 [1].