粕类周报：区间震荡，关注南美叙事-20251208

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the report is "oscillation", and the trading strategy is "unilateral: oscillation; arbitrage: M3 - M5 positive spread" [5] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the influencing factors of the粕类 market from multiple aspects including supply, demand, inventory, etc. It believes that the market will be in an oscillatory state. The supply side has both positive and negative factors, the demand side shows different trends for豆粕 and菜粕, and the inventory situation is complex. The investment view is oscillatory, and the trading strategy is unilateral oscillation and M3 - M5 positive spread arbitrage [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - Supply: USDA's current forecast for 2025/26 US soybean yield is 53 bushels per acre, with an ending inventory of 290 million bushels (corresponding to a stock - to - consumption ratio of 6.7%). Future US soybean yield may be further reduced due to less rainfall in the producing areas from August to September. CONAB predicts that Brazil's new - crop soybean production in 25/26 will reach 177.6 million tons. As of November 29, Brazil's soybean sowing rate was 86%. As of November 26, Argentina's 2025/26 soybean sowing progress reached 36%. In the next two weeks, the precipitation in Brazil's producing areas is expected to improve, and the dry weather in Argentina is conducive to sowing. From December to January, domestic soybean and豆粕 inventories are expected to seasonally decline, and there is uncertainty in domestic豆粕 supply in the first quarter of next year. Under the current China - Canada trade policy, the supply of imported菜粕 and rapeseed in China is expected to decline, and the 2025/26 global rapeseed production is expected to increase [5] - Demand: In the short term, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain a high inventory, supporting feed demand. However, the current breeding profit is in a loss state, and national policies tend to control pig inventory and weight, which may affect long - term supply.豆粕 has relatively high cost - performance. Recently, the downstream trading of豆粕 is normal, and the delivery performance is good, while the downstream trading and delivery of菜粕 are cautious [5] - Inventory: Domestic soybean and豆粕 inventories are at a high level in the same period of history, the inventory reduction of豆粕 is slow, and the spot supply pressure is still large, but it is expected to accelerate inventory reduction from December to January. This week, the inventory days of feed enterprises'豆粕 increased slightly. Domestic菜粕 inventory is continuously decreasing [5] - Basis/Spread: The basis is neutral [5] - Profit: The domestic new - crop soybean purchase and crushing profit is good, and the Canadian rapeseed crushing profit is also good [5] - Valuation: From the perspective of basis, the recent price of豆粕 futures is at a neutral - to - high valuation position [5] - Macro and Policy: China and the US have reached a soybean purchase agreement, and China has started to purchase US soybeans, but the quantity and time of purchases are uncertain, which provides support for the US market. The domestic market is expected to be in short - term oscillation, and attention should be paid to the weather in South America. If there are no obvious weather problems, the new - crop discount is expected to be under pressure from December to January under the expectation of a bumper harvest in Brazil, and M05 is expected to be weak. The spread between M03 and M05 is expected to be a positive spread, with the risk point being the domestic reserve release [5] PART TWO:粕类 Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - Inventory - to - Consumption Ratio: In November, the 25/26 US soybean stock - to - consumption ratio and the global soybean stock - to - consumption ratio decreased. The global rapeseed stock - to - consumption ratio also decreased [33][39] - US Soybean: The domestic crushing profit of US soybeans has declined, the NOPA soybean crushing volume and USDA US soybean monthly crushing volume have certain trends, and the US soybean export sales progress is slow [50][57][61] - Brazilian Soybean: The planting progress of Brazilian soybeans is presented, and the CNF premium of soybeans and the import soybean futures margin are shown [68][70] - Canadian Rapeseed: The CFR price of Canadian rapeseed and the import crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed are provided [72] - Domestic Situation: Domestic soybean and豆粕 inventories are at a high level, and the inventory of feed enterprises has increased slightly. The import volume of soybeans, rapeseed, and菜粕 in different months is presented, and the inventory of imported rapeseed and domestic主要地区菜粕 inventory are shown. The开机率 and crushing volume of major domestic oil mills, the trading and delivery of豆粕 and菜粕, the feed monthly output, the breeding profit of livestock and poultry, and the price and weight of pigs are also included [78][96][110]