股指周报（IF&IH&IC&IM)：重磅会议临近，市场情绪偏强-20251208

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - The document does not mention the industry investment rating [1] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the impact of multiple factors on stock index trends and provides investment views and trading strategies [3] - Factors such as economic and corporate profitability, macro - policies, overseas factors, and liquidity are considered [3] - The overall view is that the market is in the process of bottom - building and fluctuating, and investors can consider taking long positions opportunistically [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - Influence Factors and Driving Forces - Economic and Corporate Profitability: It is bearish. In November, China's PMI data was mixed, with the manufacturing PMI slightly recovering but the non - manufacturing PMI falling. Industrial enterprise profits were under pressure in October, with a year - on - year decline of 5.5% [3] - Macro - policies: It is bullish. On December 5, the National Financial Regulatory Administration adjusted the risk factors of insurance companies' related businesses, which could release funds for expanding investment [3] - Overseas Factors: It is slightly bullish. US inflation data was lower than expected, with the September core PCE price index rising 2.8% year - on - year, lower than the expected 2.9% [3] - Liquidity: It is neutral. The average daily trading volume of A - shares last week decreased by 24.7 billion yuan compared with the previous week [3] - Investment Views and Trading Strategies - The market is bottom - building and fluctuating. Traders can consider taking long positions during market adjustments, leveraging the discount structure of stock index futures to increase the probability of long - term investment success [3] - The single - side strategy is to wait for the right opportunity to take long positions. Attention should be paid to domestic policies and overseas geopolitical factors [3] 3.2 Stock Index Market Review - Broad - based Index Performance: Last week, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 1.28% to 4584.5; the Shanghai 50 rose 1.09% to 3002; the CSI 500 rose 0.94% to 7097.8; the CSI 1000 rose 0.11% to 7342.5 [5] - Industry Index Performance: Among the Shenwan primary industry indices, non - ferrous metals (5.3%), communication (3.7%), national defense and military industry (2.8%), machinery and equipment (2.8%), and non - bank finance (2.3%) led the gains, while media (-3.9%), real estate (-2.2%), food and beverage (-1.9%), computer (-1.7%), and textile and apparel (-1.6%) led the losses [8] - Stock Index Futures Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of CSI 300 futures decreased by 3.35%, while the open interest increased by 7.16%. The trading volume of Shanghai 50 futures increased by 4.44%, and the open interest increased by 11.16%. The trading volume of CSI 500 futures decreased by 13.57%, and the open interest increased by 4.70%. The trading volume of CSI 1000 futures decreased by 11.33%, and the open interest increased by 4.72% [11] - Contract Premium and Discount: As of December 5, all contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM were in a discount state [15] - Cross - variety Spread Performance: The spread of CSI 300 - Shanghai 50 was at the 94.1% historical quantile level; the spread of CSI 1000 - CSI 500 was at the 41.1% historical quantile level. The ratios of CSI 300/CSI 1000 and Shanghai 50/CSI 1000 were at the 41.3% and 35% historical quantile levels respectively [19] 3.3 Stock Index Influence Factors - Liquidity - Central Bank Open - Market Operations: This week, the central bank conducted 663.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 1511.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 848 billion yuan. Next week, 663.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature [25] - Market Trading Volume and Margin Trading Balance: As of December 4, the margin trading balance of A - shares was 2476.35 billion yuan, an increase of 10.3 billion yuan from the previous week. The proportion of margin trading purchases in total market trading volume was 10.8%, at the 92.2% quantile level in the past ten years. The average daily trading volume of A - shares last week decreased by 24.7 billion yuan compared with the previous week. As of December 5, the risk premium rate of CSI 300 was 5.28, at the 51.3% quantile level in the past ten years [31] 3.4 Stock Index Influence Factors - Economic Fundamentals and Corporate Profitability - Macroeconomic Indicators: In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, with slight improvements in supply and demand. The non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. From January to October, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 5950.29 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9% [3][34][42] - Corporate Profitability: The profitability of different broad - based indices and industries varied. For example, the year - on - year growth rate of the net profit attributable to the parent company of the CSI 300 in Q3, 2025 was 5.22%, and the ROE (TTM) was 9.93% [47] 3.5 Stock Index Influence Factors - Policy Driven - A series of policies have been introduced in recent times, including policies to boost consumption, support the real estate market, and implement monetary and fiscal policies to promote economic development and stabilize the market [52][53][54] 3.6 Stock Index Influence Factors - Overseas Factors - US Economic Data: In November, the US manufacturing PMI was 48.2%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 52.6%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. In September, the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate was 4.4%, and the number of new non - farm payrolls was 119,000 [62] - Trump Team's Actions: Trump's team has proposed a series of tariff policies, which have a certain impact on international trade relations and the global economic situation [69][71][73] 3.7 Stock Index Influence Factors - Valuation - Index Valuation: As of December 5, 2025, the rolling P/Es of the CSI 300, Shanghai 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 14 times, 11.9 times, 32.4 times, and 46.5 times respectively, at the 78.8%, 86.7%, 70%, and 66.9% quantile levels since October 2014 [77] - Sector Valuation: Different sectors had different levels of profitability and valuation, such as the food and beverage sector having a relatively high ROE and P/E [81]