集运指数欧线周报（EC）：落地不佳航司继续宣涨1月运价-20251208

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view for the container shipping industry on European routes is "oscillating", with both short - term, medium - term, and long - term amplitudes expected to be between - 5% and 5% [3][4][87] 2. Core View of the Report - The implementation of container shipping rates has been poor, but shipping companies continue to announce price increases for January rates. The 12 - month contract of container shipping on European routes has entered the delivery month, and the market is verifying previous expectations. Although there are some signs supporting the bulls (such as price increase announcements), the overall market is still suppressed by the downward adjustment expectation. The key to future trends lies in the final announcement of the "late - month freight rates", especially the freight rate performance in mid - to late December [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - Influencing Factors and Driving Forces - Spot Freight Rates: Bullish. In late December, MSK quoted $2400, HPL quoted $2050, and CMA quoted $3550. MSK announced a price increase to $3500 for January [4] - Political and Economic Factors: Bearish. Major global liner company CMA CGM will change its INDAMEX route to pass through the Suez Canal. The traffic volume through the Bab el Mandeb Strait has reached the highest level since January 2024. European - related routes are significantly affected by supply - chain disruptions and supply - demand games. The FEWB route has a low blank - sailing rate of 0.9% in December, and the European Northern and Mediterranean main ports are congested. The TAWB route has serious congestion in Nordic and Mediterranean ports due to labor disputes, and there is a shortage of containers and trailers in many European countries [4] - Capacity Supply: Neutral. The weekly average capacity deployment in September was 290,000 TEU, 245,000 TEU in October, 265,000 TEU in November, and 290,000 TEU in December [4] - Demand: Neutral. The overall loading rate is lower than the same - period levels of the past two years. There is a differentiation in loading rates, with PA + MSC having the lowest loading rate in the alliance and a higher probability of price cuts, while GEMINI's loading rate is gradually increasing at low prices [4] - Summary: Oscillating. The key to future trends is the final announcement of the "late - month freight rates" [4] - Investment View: Oscillating [4] - Trading Strategy: For unilateral trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for arbitrage, also adopt a wait - and - see approach. Pay attention to geopolitical disturbances and domestic and foreign macro - policy disturbances [4] 3.2 Price - The report presents price trends of various shipping routes through charts, including the European route index, the US - West route index, and the US - East route index [8] 3.3 Static Capacity - Order Volume: The report shows the order volume of container ships in different loading capacities and time periods through charts [13] - Delivery Volume: It presents the delivery volume of container ships in different loading capacities and time periods [16][18] - Demolition Volume: It shows the demolition volume of container ships in different loading capacities and time periods [17][19] - Future Delivery: It provides information on the future delivery volume of container ships in different loading capacities and time periods, including quarterly and annual data [22][24][25] - Shipbreaking Price and New - building Price: The report shows the shipbreaking price of container ships in different loading capacities, the new - building price index, and the new - building price of container ships in different loading capacities [29][31] - Second - hand Ship Price: It presents the second - hand ship price index and the second - hand ship prices of container ships with different loading capacities and ages [35][37][39] - Existing Capacity of Container Ships: It includes the total existing capacity, the existing capacity in different loading capacities, the existing capacity of ships over 25 years old, the proportion of idle and retrofitted ships, the average age, and the average age of shipbreaking [44][47][51] 3.4 Dynamic Capacity - Shipping Schedule (Shanghai - European Base Ports): It shows the total capacity deployment from Shanghai to European base ports, as well as the capacity deployments of different alliances such as PA + MSC, MSC, GEMINI, and OCEAN [59][63][67] - Desulfurization Tower Installation: It presents the number and proportion of container ships with installed desulfurization towers, those being installed, the average age and duration of desulfurization tower installation, and the average speed of container ships [70][73][74] - Idle Capacity: It shows the idle capacity of container ships in terms of TEU and the number of ships, the idle capacity in different loading capacities, and the proportion of idle capacity [78][79][83]