Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - If the new public offering sales regulations are implemented as per the draft for soliciting opinions, the cost - effectiveness of using traditional bond funds as liquidity management tools for institutional investors, especially wealth management products and bank proprietary trading, will be significantly weakened. Bond ETFs, outside the scope of the new fee reform and with advantages such as good liquidity and low trading costs, may become high - quality alternative tools for institutional liquidity management. The "new regulations" may drive institutional funds to migrate to credit - bond ETFs, bringing expansion opportunities for such products [2][5]. - The bond ETF market's scale slightly increased last week, with the increment mainly coming from credit - bond ETFs. As interest rates rise to a high - value level and institutional funds gradually enter the market, the bond market is expected to stop falling and rebound, which may drive the recovery of the bond ETF market. Additionally, with the upcoming implementation of the new public offering sales regulations and the bond market entering a volatile period, the potential value of bond ETFs as liquidity management and tactical allocation tools is expected to be re - evaluated by the market [2][45]. Summary by Directory 1. Sales New Regulations Impact: Credit - Bond ETF Incremental Funds Calculation - Potential Scale of Migratable Funds: - Approximate the scale of short - term pure - bond and passive index - type bond funds as the scale of bond funds held by wealth management products and bank proprietary trading for liquidity management. The combined proportion of short - term pure - bond and passive index - type bond funds under the heavy - position caliber of wealth management products and the affiliated - party holding caliber of bank proprietary trading is 28.9% and 10.1% respectively [9]. - Determine the proportion of credit - type bond funds in the short - term pure - bond and passive index - type bond funds held by wealth management and bank proprietary trading. The proportion of credit - type bond funds in short - term pure - bond and passive index - type bond funds under the heavy - position caliber of wealth management and the affiliated - party caliber of bank proprietary trading is 62.8% and 16.8% respectively, accounting for 18.1% and 1.7% of the total bond - fund scale held by each [11]. - Calculate the full - scale bond - fund scale held by wealth management products and bank proprietary trading. The estimated bond - fund holding scale of wealth management products and bank proprietary trading is 8496 billion yuan and 6927.1 billion yuan respectively. Based on this, the potential scale of migratable funds in the bond - type fund positions of wealth management products and bank proprietary trading under the full - scale is 1540.1 billion yuan and 1181.5 billion yuan respectively [21][22]. - Actual Migrated Funds Calculation: - Follow the "duration matching" principle. Part of the funds in the (0, 1], (1, 2], (2, 3], and (3, 4] duration intervals of credit - type short - term pure - bond and passive index - type bond funds held by wealth management products and bank proprietary trading will be transferred to credit - bond ETF products with similar duration intervals after the new regulations are implemented. - Set three scenarios: optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic, corresponding to 10%, 20%, and 50% of the fund migration ratio respectively. The incremental funds obtained by credit - bond ETFs in the optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic scenarios are 234.0 billion yuan, 467.9 billion yuan, and 1169.9 billion yuan respectively, with year - on - year increases of 4.7%, 9.3%, and 23.3% [33]. - Market Capacity: Even in the pessimistic scenario with the highest migration ratio, the incremental funds in each duration interval only account for 2.2%, 0.9%, 1.1%, and 0.4% of the corresponding index capacity. Existing credit - bond ETFs can absorb the potential fund migration caused by the new regulations without substantial constraints [42]. 2. Weekly Situation of Bond ETFs - Fund Inflows of Various Bond ETFs: - Last week, the net inflows of interest - rate bond ETFs, credit - bond ETFs, and convertible - bond ETFs were +0.15 billion yuan, +25.42 billion yuan, and - 3.69 billion yuan respectively. The total net inflow of the bond ETF market was 21.89 billion yuan. The scale increment mainly came from credit - bond ETFs [45]. - Among them, science - innovation bond ETFs had the largest net inflow, with a net inflow of 31.59 billion yuan, followed by corporate - bond ETFs (+8.62 billion yuan) and local - bond ETFs (+3.27 billion yuan). The benchmark market - making credit - bond ETF had the largest net outflow, with a net outflow of 13.45 billion yuan [46]. - Share Trends of Various Bond ETFs: As of December 5, 2025, the share inflows were concentrated in credit - bond ETFs. The shares of treasury - bond, policy - financial - bond, local - bond, credit - bond, and convertible - bond ETFs were 732.23 million shares, 434.03 million shares, 134.61 million shares, 7415.46 million shares, and 5010.55 million shares respectively, with changes of - 0.31%, - 0.36%, 2.18%, 0.34%, and - 0.55% respectively compared to November 28, 2025 [60]. - Share and Net Value Trends of Major Bond ETFs: - The shares of convertible - bond ETFs and 30 - year treasury - bond ETFs significantly outflowed. As of December 5, 2025, compared to November 28, 2025, the share changes of 30 - year treasury - bond ETFs, policy - financial - bond ETFs, 5 - year local - bond ETFs, urban - investment - bond ETFs, and convertible - bond ETFs were - 7.06 million shares, - 1.93 million shares, 0.15 million shares, no change, and - 26.20 million shares respectively [63]. - The net values of all major bond ETFs declined, with the 30 - year treasury - bond ETF showing a significant decline. As of December 5, 2025, compared to November 28, 2025, the net - value changes of 30 - year treasury - bond ETFs, policy - financial - bond ETFs, 5 - year local - bond ETFs, urban - investment - bond ETFs, and convertible - bond ETFs were - 1.82%, - 0.30%, - 0.15%, - 0.05%, and 0.07% respectively [67]. - Share and Net Value Trends of Benchmark Market - Making Credit - Bond ETFs: - The shares of benchmark market - making credit - bond ETFs slightly outflowed. As of December 5, 2025, compared to November 28, 2025, the share changes of 8 existing benchmark market - making credit - bond ETFs were mostly negative [70]. - The net values of benchmark market - making credit - bond ETFs continued to decline. As of December 5, 2025, compared to November 28, 2025, the net - value changes of these 8 ETFs were all negative [71]. - Share and Net Value Trends of Science - Innovation Bond ETFs: - The share inflow of the science - innovation bond ETF嘉实 was the largest. Among the 24 existing science - innovation bond ETFs, the total share inflow last week was 31.62 million shares, with a 1.24% increase compared to the previous week [76]. - The net - value decline of science - innovation bond ETFs accelerated. As of December 5, 2025, the average net values of the first - batch and second - batch science - innovation bond ETFs decreased by 0.11% and 0.10% respectively compared to the previous week's closing [75]. - Market Performance of Single Bond ETFs: - Constrained by the weak bond - market situation, the net values of bond ETF products generally declined. The 30 - year treasury - bond ETF, 30 - year treasury - bond ETF博时, and benchmark treasury - bond ETF led the decline, with decreases of - 1.94%, - 1.83%, and - 0.48% respectively [78]. - In terms of the premium - discount rate, the benchmark treasury - bond ETF, 30 - year treasury - bond ETF, and 5 - year local - bond ETF had higher premium rates, while the benchmark market - making credit - bond and science - innovation bond ETFs generally had higher discount rates [78]. - In terms of scale changes, the science - innovation bond ETF嘉实 (+31.15 billion yuan), corporate - bond ETF (+8.62 billion yuan), and science - innovation bond ETF景顺 (+7.95 billion yuan) had the largest net inflows, while the 30 - year treasury - bond ETF博时, 30 - year treasury - bond ETF, and credit - bond ETF had the largest net outflows [78].
债券ETF周度跟踪（12.1-12.5）：基于销售新规的影响：信用债类ETF增量几何？-20251208
Southwest Securities·2025-12-08 06:48