Guotou Securities·2025-12-08 07:08Group 1: Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed a collective rebound with the Hang Seng Index rising approximately 0.6%, the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increasing about 1%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index up around 0.8% [2][3] - Market sentiment improved significantly compared to previous days, with total market turnover rising to approximately 210.4 billion HKD and the short-selling amount on the main board decreasing to about 15.74% of total turnover [2] - Southbound capital flows remained weak, with net inflows from northbound trading at around 1.3 billion HKD on Friday [2] Group 2: Sector Performance - Resource and cyclical stocks led the market rally, with rare earth, non-ferrous metals, and gold stocks performing well due to the implementation of export licenses and increased copper stockpiling by global commodity traders [3] - The financial sector also played a crucial role in driving the market upward, with insurance stocks, Chinese brokerage firms, and domestic banks generally showing strong performance [3] - Energy-related sectors, including electric power equipment, wind power, and nuclear power, were active, reflecting ongoing interest in energy transition and equipment investment opportunities [3] Group 3: Economic Indicators - The U.S. core PCE year-on-year growth rate fell to 2.8%, providing strong support for the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cut [4] - Personal consumption expenditures in the U.S. showed almost no growth in September, indicating a cooling consumer market, with significant declines in spending on durable and non-durable goods [5] - The income distribution in the U.S. is becoming polarized, with lower-income households reducing spending while high-income groups maintain purchasing power due to asset appreciation [5] Group 4: Industry Insights - The small nucleic acid drug sector is emerging as a significant investment theme for 2026, characterized by rapid global market growth and advantages such as broad target coverage and high clinical trial success rates [7] - The global small nucleic acid drug market is projected to grow from 2.7 billion USD in 2019 to 5.7 billion USD in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 16.2% [7] - The market for siRNA drugs is expected to increase its share from 6.2% in 2019 to 44.5% in 2024, driven by advancements in delivery technologies and expanding indications [7] Group 5: Collaboration and Market Dynamics - The small nucleic acid field is becoming a hub for business development collaborations, with nearly 100 deals in the past three years and increasing transaction values [8] - Leading companies in the small nucleic acid market, such as Alnylam and Ionis, are setting the pace for global technological development, with Alnylam reporting a 149% year-on-year revenue increase in Q3 2025 [9] - Domestic pharmaceutical companies are also focusing on small nucleic acid drugs, with several candidates in clinical trials targeting conditions like high cholesterol [9] Group 6: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that small nucleic acid drugs may become a major investment theme next year, with opportunities in both domestic and international markets [10] - Key companies to watch include overseas leaders like Alnylam, Arrowhead, and Ionis, as well as domestic firms like CSPC Pharmaceutical Group and Hengrui Medicine [10]