南华期货天然橡胶产业周报：供宽需弱，承压震荡-20251208

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral - weak view on the natural rubber industry in the medium - long term [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The current situation of natural rubber is characterized by weak demand and ample supply, with the market expected to remain in a wide - range oscillatory pattern, and light - colored rubber is relatively stronger [1] - In the medium - long term, the global total production capacity cycle has not fully peaked, supply pressure is increasing, and demand requires continuous macro - incentives. Therefore, the industry is viewed as neutral - weak [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - The real - world support for natural rubber has slightly weakened, while market expectations remain stable. The market is in an oscillatory pattern with narrowing amplitude under the divergence between bulls and bears [1] - The fundamental contradictions of natural rubber have changed little. The concern about flood - induced production cuts in Thailand has subsided, and downstream demand support has weakened marginally [1] - The inventory of natural rubber, especially in Qingdao Free Trade Zone, continues to accumulate. Tire production, sales, and exports have decreased month - on - month, and downstream inventory pressure has increased [1] - In the long term, fixed - asset investment and real - estate investment continue to decline, domestic demand growth is under pressure, and there are still obstacles to exports, resulting in a weak long - term demand outlook [1] - Weather disturbances in production areas are alternating. Early heavy rainfall in southern Thailand and Vietnam and floods in southern Thailand disrupted short - term supply, but later rainfall in Thailand is expected to decrease. Cooling in Yunnan will lead to earlier suspension of tapping, tightening supply expectations [1] - After the concentrated cancellation of RU warehouse receipts in November, there are more than 40,000 tons of new rubber warehouse receipts, and the warehousing is still slow, but the overall supply of whole - milk latex is not expected to be in short supply [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has revised the delivery standards for No. 20 rubber, which will introduce alternative delivery products, increasing the expectation of a looser supply of delivery products [1] - The price of synthetic rubber was strong in the early stage, and the price difference between natural rubber and synthetic rubber widened, which may weaken the dragging effect of synthetic rubber [1] - The recent macro - environment has warmed up, with the probability of the Fed's interest - rate cut exceeding 85%, and China's monetary policy has been stably continued, reducing liquidity concerns and increasing market risk appetite [1] 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Price Range: The short - term reference oscillatory range for RU2605 is 14,900 - 15,500, and for NR2601 is 1,1900 - 12,400 [22] - Trend Judgment: Currently, downstream demand is weakening, and upstream supply is neutral. There are still supports and pressures in the range. With limited changes in fundamentals, rubber prices are more affected by sentiment fluctuations and are expected to remain oscillatory [22] - Strategy Recommendations: - Basis Strategy: The basis of RU is at a high level, with limited room for further increase. The valuation of whole - milk latex is expected to continue the seasonal repair trend [23] - Unilateral Strategy: There is a large divergence between bulls and bears in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the callback opportunities at the upper and lower limits of the oscillatory range [24] - Hedging Strategy: It is expected that the volatility will be large, and unilateral trading can be combined with protective options [24] - Calendar Spread Arbitrage Strategy: The spread between RU1 and RU5 rose and then fell last week. Currently, the warehouse receipts are low, which is favorable for the positive - spread arbitrage under the long - position of the near - month contract. However, rubber prices are under great pressure, and the spread may be limited during the suspension of tapping in China in the first quarter of next year. Pay attention to the arbitrage space for spread convergence [25] - Variety Arbitrage Strategy: Consider widening the spread between light - and dark - colored rubber at low levels, with the 01 spread combination referring to around 3,000 points. There may still be room to widen the spread between natural rubber and synthetic rubber [25] 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Price Range Forecast: The price range forecast for rubber RU in the next two weeks is 14,800 - 15,600, with a current volatility of 26.95% and a historical percentile of 12.75% in three years. For 20 - gauge rubber NR, the price range is 11,900 - 12,400, with a current volatility of 13.80% and a historical percentile of 68.66% in three years [27] - Risk Management Strategy Recommendations: - Inventory Management: For enterprises with high inventory, they can short rubber futures to lock in sales profits, buy out - of - the - money put options to reduce price - decline risks, and sell call options to increase sales profits [28] - Procurement Management: For enterprises with low inventory and future procurement plans, they can buy rubber far - month futures to lock in procurement costs, buy out - of - the - money call options to reduce cost - increase risks, and sell put options to reduce procurement costs [28] 3.2 Important Information and Focus of Attention 3.2.1 Last Week's Important Information - Positive Information: - The central bank conducted a 100 - billion - yuan repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system [30] - In November 2025, the retail and wholesale volumes of the domestic passenger - car market showed certain growth trends [30] - The ADP employment data in the US was lower than expected, increasing the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut. The probability of a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut in December by the Fed rose to 86% [30] - The unemployment rate in the eurozone remained stable, and the core CPI decreased month - on - month [31] - The China Logistics Prosperity Index in November was 50.9%, up 0.2 percentage points month - on - month [31] - In terms of weather, some production areas in Yunnan are gradually suspending tapping, and the supply in Hainan is expected to tighten due to raw - material competition and concentrated milk diversion. Rainfall in southern Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia is increasing [31] - Negative Information: - China's official manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs in November were lower than expected, dragging down the composite PMI [32] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange revised the contract and delivery rules for 20 - gauge rubber futures, adding alternative delivery products [32] - As of November 30, 2025, China's social inventory of natural rubber increased, with both light - and dark - colored rubber inventories rising [32] - According to the ANRPC report, global natural rubber production is expected to increase slightly in 2025, while demand growth is relatively weak [33] - In October 2025, Indonesia's exports of natural rubber to China decreased slightly month - on - month but increased significantly year - on - year [34] - The EUDR has been postponed, and the results of the EU's double - anti investigation are still pending [34] 3.2.2 This Week's Focus of Attention - Monitor the weather and tapping progress in Yunnan, the raw - material supply in Hainan, and the rainfall in southern Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia [35] - Pay attention to the import and export of dry rubber, social inventory changes, and the repair of whole - milk latex valuation and spot digestion [35] - Keep an eye on downstream tire export data and tire production start - up rates [35] - In the macro - aspect, focus on the Fed's interest - rate decision, other central banks' actions, China's trade balance, CPI, and PPI data [35] 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Unilateral Trend: The main contract of RU has switched to 05. Last week, the 01 contract of rubber weakened, and the main contract rebounded after touching the support at 15,000, maintaining a weak oscillatory pattern. The main contract of NR also oscillated synchronously, and its positions increased [38] - Capital Movement: On the disk, short positions in RU continued to increase last week, while short positions in NR decreased gradually [40] 3.3.2 Spot Market and Spread Analysis - Spot Market: The prices of most rubber varieties decreased last week, including domestic whole - milk latex, Thai RSS3, and Vietnamese 3L [43] - Term Structure Analysis: - Basis Change: The basis of whole - milk latex is on a regression trend. The valuation of RU relative to other spot products is relatively stable. NR is anchored to Indonesian standard rubber, and the basis of other spot products relative to NR has widened, which may provide some support [46] - Calendar Spread Structure: Last week, the overall center of gravity of RU shifted downward, the spot and 01 contracts were firm, and the C - structure became shallower. The structure of NR changed little and shifted downward overall [53] - External Market: The prices of Japanese RSS3 and Singapore TSR20 decreased last week. The structure of Japanese RSS3 has changed to a C - structure, and the C - structure of Singapore TSR20 has become slightly shallower [57][59] - Internal - External Spread: The spread between RU and Japanese RSS3 futures has rebounded, and the spread between NR and Singapore standard rubber has turned negative [61] - Virtual - to - Physical Ratio and Sentiment Index: Last week, the sentiment in the rubber market rebounded slightly, and the demand sentiment for downstream tires was flat with a slight warming. Currently, the number of RU warehouse receipts is low, and the virtual - to - physical ratio is high. Pay attention to the game between bulls and bears. The virtual - to - physical ratio of NR has declined [66][67] - Variety Spread Analysis: - Dry - Rubber Spot Spread: The spread between light - and dark - colored rubber has widened, and the relative valuation of whole - milk latex has continued to repair. The spread between Thai standard and Thai mixed rubber has widened again, and the spread between Thai and Indonesian standard rubber has slightly decreased [68] - Spread between Natural and Synthetic Rubber: The supply pressure of synthetic rubber is slightly stronger than that of natural rubber. The spread between synthetic and natural rubber has retracted, and there may still be room for it to widen in the future [71] 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Industry Chain Profit Tracking - Raw Material Cost: The overall raw - material prices are firm, with some prices rising. Cooling in Yunnan has led to earlier suspension of tapping, and rainfall in Thailand has decreased, weakening support [74] - Processing Profit - Domestic Rubber: The delivery profit of whole - milk latex has oscillated upward, while the profit of TSR9710 has declined slowly [82] - Processing Profit - Imported Rubber: Last week, rubber prices oscillated. The profit of Thai smoked sheets has slightly rebounded, the profit of Thai standard rubber has decreased due to price decline, and the profit of Thai mixed rubber has declined [84] 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply Side - Production in Major Producing Countries: The natural - rubber production in major producing countries shows seasonal characteristics. In Yunnan, China, tapping is gradually suspending, and the supply in Hainan is expected to tighten [31] - Domestic Import Situation: In October 2025, China's imports of natural and synthetic rubber increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. Most major rubber varieties showed a downward trend in imports month - on - month [88] 3.5.2 Demand Side - Tire Production and Sales: The start - up rate of all - steel tires has increased slightly, while that of semi - steel tires has rebounded slightly. Tire exports have decreased significantly month - on - month and weakened year - on - year in October [105] - Replacement Demand: The domestic logistics industry has been performing steadily, but the slowdown in fixed - asset investment and real - estate investment may suppress the growth of replacement demand in the long term [110] - Matching Demand - Automobiles: Domestic automobile sales have continued to improve, but the high inventory of passenger cars may increase the demand pressure on semi - steel tires [118] - Matching Demand - Heavy Trucks and Construction Machinery: The production of heavy trucks has maintained high growth, and the cumulative year - on - year growth of construction machinery has increased. However, the long - term weak fixed - asset investment may limit the growth of new demand for trucks [122] - Overseas Tire Production: Japan's tire production has been stable overall, and Thailand's tire shipment index has shown year - on - year growth but weakened in the fourth quarter [124] - Overseas Tire Demand: The tire imports in the US have increased against the trend, and the production and sales of European passenger cars have been stable [126] - Other Rubber Product Demand: The start - up rate of domestic conveyor belts has increased slightly month - on - month but is lower year - on - year, and the start - up rate of rubber hoses has increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [133] 3.5.3 Inventory Side - Futures Inventory: The number of Shanghai rubber warehouse receipts has increased slightly this week, and the number of 20 - gauge rubber warehouse receipts has increased at a slightly faster rate than the seasonal trend [135] - Social Inventory: As of November 30, 2025, the inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao has increased, with the inventory in the free - trade zone and general - trade warehouses rising [137]