Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the corn market is "oscillating" [4] Report's Core View - The recent counter - seasonal rise in corn prices is due to the extremely tight downstream inventories caused by the market's previous unanimous bearish expectations, combined with factors such as logistics and grain quality issues, essentially reflecting the low carry - over of old crops. In the short term, before the spot market contradictions are resolved, the 01 contract is expected to oscillate at a high level. In the medium term, the trends of the 03 and 05 contracts need to closely monitor the changes in the grain - selling rhythm in the producing areas, the arrival of imported corn, and policy trends [4] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - Supply: Bullish. The current grass - roots grain - selling progress has exceeded 30%, which is relatively fast compared to the same period in history. The planting cost in the 25/26 season continues to decline, with increased production in the Northeast and Northwest and decreased production in North China. The overall national production is expected to be abundant. Imported Brazilian corn is arriving at ports successively [4] - Demand: Bullish. As of October 2025, the national industrial feed production was 29.07 million tons, a 4.2% month - on - month decrease and a 3.6% year - on - year increase. The proportion of corn in compound feed produced by feed enterprises was 38.0%, a 2.7 - percentage - point year - on - year decrease. Livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventories in the short term. Feed enterprises have low inventories and a rigid demand for replenishment. Deep - processing enterprises have seasonal inventory - building needs, and channel traders have a strong willingness to purchase new - season corn [4] - Inventory: Bullish. Due to good shipping demand, the inventory accumulation rate at northern ports is slow, and the inventory is still at a low level. The grain inventory at southern ports has dropped to a low level. Feed enterprises and deep - processing enterprises also have low corn inventories [4] - Basis/Spread: Neutral. The basis is at a neutral level, and the spread is at a high level [4] - Profit: Bearish. The breeding profits of pigs, meat and egg - laying poultry, and the processing profits of deep - processed starch and alcohol are all in the red [4] - Valuation: Neutral. From the perspective of planting cost, the valuation of new - season corn is high; from the perspective of the absolute futures price, the valuation of the corn futures price is low [4] - Macro and Policy: Bullish. The railway administration issued a loading - limit notice, increasing the short - term expectation of logistics tightness [4] - Investment View: Oscillating. In the short term, the 01 contract is expected to oscillate at a high level. In the medium term, closely monitor the grain - selling rhythm, import situation, and policy trends for the 03 and 05 contracts [4] - Trading Strategy: Unilateral trading is expected to oscillate, and arbitrage is on hold. Pay attention to policies and weather [4] Part Two: Review of Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Presents multiple charts, including the basis trend of the corn main contract, national average prices, port prices, starch prices, and futures contract positions. These charts show the historical data from 2019 - 2025, reflecting the price trends and position changes of corn in different periods [6][8][12] Part Three: Domestic Corn Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - Grain - Selling Progress: The grass - roots grain - selling progress in the Northeast and North China is presented through charts, showing the data from 2019/20 - 2025/26 [23] - Channel Supply: The channel supply has increased, and relevant data on the arrival volume at northern ports and the remaining vehicles at Shandong deep - processing enterprises are presented [25] - Import: In October, corn imports increased, while imports of sorghum and barley decreased [35] - Port Inventory: The inventory at northern ports and the grain inventory at southern ports are at low levels [41] - Feed Industry: The inventory days of feed enterprises are presented, and the monthly feed production from 2021 - 2025 is also shown. The data shows that as of October 2025, the national industrial feed production was 29.07 million tons, a 4.2% month - on - month decrease and a 3.6% year - on - year increase [46][48] - Livestock and Poultry Breeding: The breeding profits of pigs, broilers, and laying hens are in the red. The pig price has declined slightly, and the weight reduction is not obvious [50][54] - Deep - Processing Industry: The corn consumption of deep - processing enterprises has increased seasonally, and the inventory is at a low level. The starch processing profit has deteriorated, and the starch inventory is being depleted. The alcohol start - up rate has increased seasonally, but the processing profit has declined [65][73][93] - Substitute Products: The wheat price has risen, and the flour demand is weak [100] Part Four: Foreign Corn Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - USDA Report: The corn stock - to - use ratios of major exporting countries in the 2025/26 season have been raised. The global corn production and its distribution are presented, with the United States accounting for 32%, China 23%, Brazil 10%, Ukraine 3%, Argentina 4%, and other countries 28% [113][117][118] - US Corn Exports: US corn export sales are performing well, and the export sales and cumulative export sales to China are also presented [119]
玉米周报：短期供需错配，盘面高位震荡-20251208
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-12-08 07:20