右侧突破和组合构建：主题形态学三板斧（一）

Group 1: Theme Investment Strategy - The report aims to create a tool for theme investment by identifying theme opportunities through comprehensive screening of theme indices, allowing investment managers to focus on logical analysis and decision-making[2] - It introduces the concept of "right-side breakout" to capture theme initiation signals and participate in the first wave of market movements[4] - The report emphasizes the importance of avoiding themes with "absolute highs" within the last four months to focus on the most dynamic themes[4] Group 2: Performance Metrics - Backtesting results indicate that the right-side breakout pattern shows significant excess returns, particularly in bullish markets, with a 69.6% probability of price increase over a 5-day holding period in 2024[18] - The report highlights that 43.4% of indices have a fund holding ratio between 2-5%, with the highest fund holding ratio in technology themes at 20.4%[21] - The average return for the right-side breakout strategy over a 10-day holding period is 2.9% from 2021 to 2024, with a 68.3% probability of price increase in 2024[18] Group 3: Risk Considerations - Historical performance does not guarantee future results, and investors should consider current market conditions and economic trends[32] - Risks include uncertainties in industry dynamics, slower-than-expected domestic economic recovery, and geopolitical tensions affecting market stability[32]