原周报（LG）：原木期货价格维持低位震荡-20251208

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The weakening fundamentals of logs have been priced in the market. With the current low valuation, log prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - Supply: In November 2025, about 48 New Zealand log - departure vessels were recorded, a month - on - month decrease of 6. The total shipment volume was about 1.854 million cubic meters, an 8% decrease from October's 2.013 million cubic meters. The supply factor is considered neutral [4]. - Demand: From November 24th to November 30th, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 61,300 cubic meters, a 4.81% decrease from the previous week. The demand factor is considered bearish [4]. - Inventory: As of November 28th, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.97 million cubic meters, a decrease of 60,000 cubic meters from the previous week, a week - on - week decrease of 1.98%. The inventory factor is considered neutral [4]. - Valuation: Currently, log prices are below the delivery cost, with a low valuation. The valuation factor is considered neutral [4]. - Investment View: The weakening fundamentals of logs have been priced in the market. With the current low valuation, log prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level. The trading strategy for unilateral and arbitrage is not provided, and attention should be paid to domestic demand [4]. Part Two: Review of Futures and Spot Market - Futures Price: Log futures fluctuated at a low level this week. The fundamentals of log spot prices continued to weaken, and spot prices dropped to the lowest level of the year. The outer - market quotes in December had a large span, with a median of $116. The shipment volume in the fourth quarter is expected to increase. Overall, log futures and spot prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level [8]. - Futures Position: As of December 5th, 2025, the total position of log futures contracts was 23,907 lots, a 1.4% decrease from the previous week; the position of the main log futures contract was 15,277 lots, an 8.2% decrease from the previous week [13]. - Spot Price: As of December 5th, 2025, the prices of Shandong radiata pine in different specifications (3.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A and 5.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A) were 680/750/850 yuan/m³ and 730/770/940 yuan/m³ respectively; the prices of Jiangsu radiata pine in different specifications (3.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A and 5.9 - meter small A/medium A/large A) were 680/740/800 yuan/m³ and 730/760/840 yuan/m³ respectively [16]. Part Three: Log Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - Import Volume: In October 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume was about 1.9078 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 4.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.14%. From January to October 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume was about 19.9238 million cubic meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.04%. In October 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume from New Zealand was about 1.4958 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23% and a year - on - year increase of 12.47%. From January to October 2025, China's total coniferous log import volume from New Zealand was about 15.0078 million cubic meters, a year - on - year increase of 1.80% [20]. - Shipment Volume: In November 2025, about 48 New Zealand log - departure vessels were recorded, a month - on - month decrease of 6. The total shipment volume was about 1.854 million cubic meters, an 8% decrease from October's 2.013 million cubic meters. From November 29th to December 5th, 2025, a total of 7 vessels with 260,000 cubic meters of logs departed from New Zealand ports, a decrease of 8 vessels and 336,000 cubic meters compared with the previous week. Among them, 7 vessels with 260,000 cubic meters of logs were directly shipped from New Zealand to China, a decrease of 3 vessels and 108,000 cubic meters compared with the previous week [26]. - Import Cost and Profit: As of December 2025, the CFR quote for radiata pine was between $112 - $119/JASm³, equivalent to 780 - 825 yuan/m³ in RMB, with an import profit of about - 45 yuan/m³. In November 2025, the AWG price at the New Zealand port warehouse was 126 New Zealand dollars/JASm³, the export cost was about $111/JASm³, and the export profit was about 8.8 New Zealand dollars/JAS/m³ [29]. - Inventory: As of November 28th, the total domestic coniferous log inventory was 2.97 million cubic meters, a 1.98% decrease from the previous week. Among them, the total coniferous log inventory at Shandong ports was 1.986 million cubic meters, a 3.83% decrease from the previous week; the total coniferous log inventory at Jiangsu ports was 850,900 cubic meters, a 2.30% increase from the previous week. The radiation pine inventory was 2.45 million cubic meters, a 2.39% decrease from the previous week; the North American timber inventory was 70,000 cubic meters, a 12.50% decrease from the previous week; the spruce/fir inventory remained the same as the previous week [32]. - Outbound Volume: From November 24th to November 30th, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at 13 ports in 7 provinces in China was 61,300 cubic meters, a 4.81% decrease from the previous week. Among them, the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Shandong ports was 30,400 cubic meters, a 15.32% decrease from the previous week; the average daily outbound volume of coniferous logs at Jiangsu ports was 26,200 cubic meters, an 11.02% increase from the previous week [37]. - Timber Square Price and Processing Profit: As of December 5th, 2025, the timber square price in Shandong was 1,250 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week; the timber square price in Jiangsu was 1,260 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week. The processing profit in Shandong was - 3.8 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week; the processing profit in Jiangsu was - 9.2 yuan/m³, unchanged from the previous week [40].