乙二醇库存累积压力主导，预计偏弱运行

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core View of the Report The price of ethylene glycol is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation pattern in the short term due to stable supply, continuous inventory accumulation, stable demand, and potential cost - side fluctuations. The inventory pressure in the entire industrial chain dominates the market, and the risk of price decline is relatively high. Attention should be paid to the inventory digestion progress and demand changes [1][2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - 主力合约与基差: The price of the ethylene glycol futures main contract dropped from 3,826.0 yuan/ton to 3,723.0 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.69%, indicating weak market sentiment. The basis widened from - 16 yuan/ton to 87 yuan/ton, showing stronger support for the spot relative to the futures [1]. - 持仓与成交: The trading volume of the main contract increased by 65.24% to 208,232 lots, and the open interest rose by 4.31% to 307,881 lots, indicating increased market trading activity and potential intensification of long - short divergence [1]. - 供给端: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate remained stable at 65.83%, with the oil - based and coal - based operating rates at 72.38% and 55.64% respectively. The profits of ethylene - based processes and coal - based processes improved, while the profit of natural - gas - based processes declined [1]. - 需求端: The load of downstream polyester plants remained stable at 89.42%, and the load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained at 63.43%, with overall stable demand [1]. - 库存端: The inventory at the main ports in East China increased by 21,000 tons to 753,000 tons, and the inventory in Zhangjiagang rose by 30,000 tons to 315,000 tons, continuing the inventory accumulation trend and increasing port pressure [2] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - 期货与现货价格: The price of the ethylene glycol futures main contract decreased by 103 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.69%. The spot price in the East China market decreased by 95 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.49% [4]. - 利润情况: The profits of various ethylene - based processes increased, the coal - based profit increased, while the natural - gas - based and oil - field associated - gas - based profits declined [4]. - 开工负荷: The overall ethylene glycol operating rate, coal - based, oil - based, polyester plant load, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom load remained unchanged [4]. - 库存与到港量: The inventory at the main ports in East China increased by 2,100 tons, a 2.87% increase, and the inventory in Zhangjiagang increased by 30,000 tons, a 10.53% increase [4]. 3. Industrial Dynamics and Interpretation - On December 5, the negotiation center of the East China US - dollar ethylene glycol market moved down, and the decline expanded in the afternoon. - In the Shaanxi region, the spot quotation of the ethylene glycol market was lowered due to the decline in coal prices. - The supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol remained weak, and the decline in crude oil and coal prices led to a collapse in cost - side support, and the spot basis continued to weaken. - In the mainstream market, the center of gravity declined, and the offers of holders in the South China market followed the decline, with a cold trading atmosphere [5] 4. Price Trend Judgment The ethylene glycol price is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation pattern. The reasons are stable supply, continuous inventory accumulation, stable demand, and potential cost - side fluctuations. High inventory and weak demand dominate the downward pressure on prices [49][50]