油厂收购价下调，花生盘面震荡回落

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The peanut futures market is experiencing a downward trend with the decline in oil mill purchase prices and a volatile market. The report recommends short - selling PK601 peanuts on rallies and conducting reverse arbitrage on the 1 - 5 spread when it is high. Additionally, it suggests trying the option strategy of selling PK601 - C - 8200 [5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Option Strategy: Try selling the PK601 - C - 8200 option strategy [5] - Trading Logic: Peanut trading volume has increased. Henan common peanuts have stable prices, while Shandong and Northeast peanuts have seen price drops. Imported peanut prices are stable, but import volume has significantly decreased. Oil mill operating rates have risen, peanut meal prices have fallen, and peanut oil prices are weak. Oil mill profits from pressing have decreased, downstream consumption remains weak, and oil mill peanut and peanut oil inventories have increased. The market anticipates an increase in peanut production compared to last year, but farmers in the Northeast are reluctant to sell. The price difference between Northeast and Henan peanuts remains high, and there is an abundant supply of oil - grade peanuts in Henan. Oil mill purchase prices have been lowered, and the spot price of Henan peanuts is low. There is weak willingness to take delivery of 01 peanut warehouse receipts. This week, 01 peanuts fluctuated downward, and the 1 - 5 spread also declined [6] - Strategy: Short - sell 01 peanuts on rallies [6] - Spread Strategy: Conduct reverse arbitrage on the 1 - 5 spread when it is high [6] 3.2 Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 Peanut Price - Domestic Peanuts: Henan and Northeast peanut prices have declined. Shandong Junan large peanuts are at 3.4 yuan per jin, down 0.1 yuan from last week; Henan Zhengyang new - season peanuts are at 3.7 yuan per jin, stable compared to last week; Liaoning Changtu Baisha peanuts are at 4.75 yuan per jin, down 0.1 yuan from last week; Jilin Fuyu Baisha peanuts are at 4.75 yuan per jin, down 0.1 yuan from last week. Common peanut trading is average, and Henan peanut prices are relatively stable [11] - Oil Mill Oil - grade Peanuts: Oil mill purchase prices have dropped, and most mills are still not purchasing. The basic purchase price of oil mills is between 7150 - 7400 yuan per ton, down 100 yuan per ton from last week [11] - Imported Peanuts: Sudan new peanuts are at 8600 yuan per ton, Senegalese oil - grade peanuts are at 7600 yuan per ton, and Indian 50/60 peanuts are quoted at 8000 yuan per ton, with prices stable compared to last week [11] 3.2.2 Domestic Demand - Oil Mill Operating Rate: As of December 4th, the operating rate of peanut oil mills this week is 19.07%, a 2.46% increase from last week [15] - Oil Mill Inventory: This week, the oil mill's peanut arrival volume is 46,200 tons, an increase of 4600 tons from last week. The oil mill's peanut inventory is 89,600 tons, an increase of 18,200 tons from last week. The peanut oil inventory is 41,500 tons, an increase of 1000 tons from last week [15] 3.2.3 Pressing Profit - Pressing Profit: The purchase price of peanut oil mills has been lowered, peanut meal prices are weak, and peanut oil prices are weak. As a result, the oil mill's pressing profit is 334 yuan per ton, a decrease of 42 yuan per ton from last week (data from Steel Union) [19] - Peanut Oil Price: The average price of first - grade peanut oil is 14,500 yuan per ton, weaker than last week, and the price of small - pressed concentrated fragrant oil is 16,300 yuan per ton, stable compared to last week [19] - Peanut Meal: Due to the strong spot price of soybean meal, the price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal is low. The peanut meal price is stable, at 3100 yuan per ton this week, a decrease of 80 yuan per ton from last week [19] 3.2.4 Basis and Spread - Spread: This week, due to the 01 peanut price rising and then falling, the 1 - 4 peanut spread is strong, stabilizing around - 40 yuan [26] - Spot - Futures Price Difference: It has declined [26] 3.2.5 Peanut Import - Peanut Kernel Import: In October, the import of peanut kernels was 35,000 tons. From January to October, the cumulative import was 198,000 tons, a 69% decrease compared to the same period last year [30] - Peanut Kernel Export: In October, the export of peanut kernels was 14,000 tons. From January to October, the cumulative export was 129,000 tons, a 19% increase compared to the same period last year [30] - Peanut Oil Import: In October, the import of peanut oil was 43,000 tons. From January to October, the cumulative import of peanut oil was 334,000 tons, a 53% increase compared to last year [30]