生猪期货：底部震荡偏弱

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the live hog futures industry is "Bottom shock, weakening" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply - demand pattern in the live hog market remains with an oversupply situation, lacking continuous upward momentum. The overall price center has shifted downward, but since the price is already at a low level, the downward space is limited and there is no possibility of a sharp decline for the time being [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review and Outlook - Last week, the national live hog spot price first rose and then fell, showing a weak trend. On December 1st, the national average live hog price was 11.48 yuan/kg, with prices rising in 26 provinces. The price in South China increased significantly by 0.2 - 0.4 yuan/kg due to the sporadic start of curing demand. However, the price continued to weaken subsequently. On the 3rd, the national average live hog price dropped to 11.27 yuan/kg, with prices falling in 23 provinces. On the 5th, the average price of foreign - ternary live hogs dropped to 11.30 yuan/kg. On the 6th, prices in many places fell below the previous lows, with prices in South and Southwest China continuing to decline, and only partial areas in North and Northeast China rebounding slightly. The north - south price difference widened to 2 yuan/jin. The overall price dropped last week, with a year - on - year decline of over 29% [1] - On the supply side, the weekly slaughter volume of the breeding end may continue to increase. Under the downward price trend, small - scale farmers are more willing to sell, leading to an increase in concentrated slaughter. So, the supply - side pressure is relatively large this week. On the demand side, the recovery of terminal consumption is slow. Although the slaughter rate and volume of slaughtering enterprises have both increased, the improvement in demand is still moderate, and it is difficult to form strong support in the short term [1] Factors to Watch - Changes in the inventory of breeding sows, the progress of consumption recovery, and policy regulation dynamics [2] Weekly Changes in Fundamental Data | Indicator | Unit | Latest Week | Previous Period | Weekly Change | Frequency | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Piglets | yuan/head | 216.9 | 215.95 | 0.95 | Weekly | | Weekly average slaughter weight | kg | 123.7 | 123.66 | 0.04 | Weekly | | Profit from purchasing piglets for breeding | yuan/head | - 243.07 | - 248.95 | 5.88 | Weekly | | Profit from self - breeding and self - raising | yuan/head | - 131.6 | - 141.09 | 9.49 | Weekly | | Slaughter start - up rate | % | 37.58 | 37.49 | - 0.09 | Weekly | [3]