瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20251208

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, methanol port inventories decreased slightly. This week, with a high volume of unplanned foreign vessels expected to arrive and a potential shutdown of an olefin plant in East China, import demand may weaken, and port methanol inventories are expected to increase. The actual situation depends on the unloading of foreign vessels [2]. - Last week, the load of Qinghai Salt Lake olefin plant increased, leading to an overall rise in the olefin industry's operation rate. However, Ningbo Fude is expected to undergo maintenance, which may cause the overall operation rate to decline [2]. - The MA2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2030 - 2130 in the short - term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2089 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton compared to the previous period; the 1 - 5 spread is - 88 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton [2]. - The main contract's open interest is 802,701 lots, a decrease of 69,391 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 164,139 lots [2]. - The number of warehouse receipts is 8,722, an increase of 1,146 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2070 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 2007.5 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - The East - Northwest price difference is 67.5 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton; the basis of the Zhengzhou methanol main contract is - 19 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton [2]. - The CFR price at the main Chinese port is 241 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 317 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. - The FOB price in Rotterdam is 260 euros/ton, unchanged; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 76 US dollars/ton, down 4 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 5.34 US dollars/million British thermal units, up 0.27 US dollars/million British thermal units [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory in East China ports is 93.88 tons, an increase of 0.13 tons; the inventory in South China ports is 41.06 tons, a decrease of 1.54 tons [2]. - The methanol import profit is 8.73 yuan/ton, down 1.29 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 161.26 tons, an increase of 18.57 tons [2]. - The inventory of inland enterprises is 361,500 tons, a decrease of 12,200 tons; the methanol enterprise operation rate is 89.09%, unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operation rate is 42.91%, down 0.07%; the dimethyl ether operation rate is 7.88%, unchanged [2]. - The acetic acid operation rate is 69.62%, down 3.44%; the MTBE operation rate is 69.97%, unchanged [2]. - The olefin operation rate is 90.82%, up 0.89%; the methanol - to - olefin disk profit is - 792 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 20.19%, up 0.82%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 20.25%, up 0.2% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 18.93%, up 0.35%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 18.92%, up 0.33% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - As of December 3, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 36.15 tons, a decrease of 1.22 tons from the previous period, a 3.26% decrease; the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises were 23.97 tons, an increase of 0.90 tons from the previous period, a 3.90% increase [2]. - As of December 3, the total methanol port inventory in China was 134.94 tons, a decrease of 1.41 tons from the previous data. East China saw inventory accumulation, while South China saw inventory reduction [2]. - As of December 4, the domestic methanol - to - olefin plant capacity utilization rate was 91.78%, a 0.88% increase from the previous period. The load of Qinghai Salt Lake olefin plant increased, leading to an overall rise in the industry's operation rate [2].