Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-12-08 09:09Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The short - term inventory of urea enterprises is expected to continue to decline slightly due to supply reduction from some gas - head enterprises and the advancement of downstream reserve demand. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1630 - 1680 yuan/ton in the short term [2]. - The operating rate of compound fertilizer has increased month - on - month, and enterprises are continuing to produce winter - storage fertilizers. The short - term capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers is expected to show a narrow increase. With the implementation of a new batch of quotas, export demand is gradually increasing [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1646 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread is - 64 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; the main contract's open interest is 167,074 lots, down 33,279 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 9,772, up 7,116; the exchange warehouse receipts are 11,526, up 1,041 [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices in Hebei, Henan, Anhui are unchanged, the price in Jiangsu is up 10 yuan/ton, and the price in Shandong is down 30 yuan/ton. The main contract basis is 44 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan [2]. - FOB Baltic is 352.5 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars; FOB China main port is 391.5 US dollars/ton, down 6 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Industry Situation - Port inventory is 10.5 million tons, up 0.5 million tons; enterprise inventory is 129.05 million tons, down 7.34 million tons. The enterprise operating rate is 81.83%, down 1.88%; the daily output is 197,900 tons, down 4,500 tons [2]. - The export volume is 1.2 billion tons, down 17%; the current monthly output is 6,000,330 tons, up 129,060 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of compound fertilizer is 40.53%, up 3.47%; the operating rate of melamine is 61.66%, up 0.86%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer is 56 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is - 29 yuan/ton, down 129 yuan [2]. - The current monthly output of compound fertilizer is 4.3825 billion tons, up 0.7538 billion tons; the current weekly output of melamine is 32,100 tons, up 600 tons [2]. 3.5 Industry News - As of December 3, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 129.05 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.38%. As of December 4, the port inventory was 10.5 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5% [2]. - As of December 4, the production of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.3851 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.25%; the capacity utilization rate was 81.83%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.88% [2].