铁合金周报：供需变化不大，成本扰动加剧-20251208

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For ferrosilicon, last week the double - silicon futures prices stopped falling and rebounded at a low level. In November, the settlement electricity prices in Ningxia and Qinghai increased steadily, and the year - end production pressure on enterprises increased, leading to a warmer market expectation. Fundamentally, last week, the supply of ferrosilicon increased while the demand decreased. The previously - overhauled manufacturers resumed production, and the factory inventory stopped falling and rebounded. At the end of the year, the supply and demand of ferroalloys are both weak, and the prices fluctuate weakly following the black series. However, the alloy industry has been in continuous losses for several months, and there is no driving force for the prices to continue falling. The idea of hedging against price rebounds in the industry remains unchanged. On the night of last Friday, the double - coke prices dropped significantly, and the pessimistic expectation of loose supply and demand dragged down the alloy prices. In the short term, the alloy trend is weak, waiting for new macro - industrial drivers [4]. - For silicomanganese, last week the double - silicon futures prices stopped falling and rebounded at a low level. In November, the settlement electricity prices in Ningxia and Qinghai increased steadily, and the year - end production pressure on enterprises increased, leading to a warmer market expectation. Fundamentally, last week, the supply and demand of silicomanganese both decreased. The production cost in the southwest region was seriously inverted, and the production in the Yunnan - Guizhou production areas was significantly reduced. The steel mill demand was weak, and a new round of steel procurement was in progress. Attention should be paid to the quantity and price performance. The silicomanganese factory inventory continued to reach new highs, strongly suppressing price rebounds. At the end of the year, the supply and demand of ferroalloys are both weak, and the prices fluctuate weakly following the black series. On the night of last Friday, the double - coke prices dropped significantly, and the pessimistic expectation of loose supply and demand dragged down the alloy prices. In the short term, the alloy trend is weak, waiting for new macro - industrial drivers [22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Ferrosilicon Supply - The weekly output of 136 independent ferrosilicon enterprises was 108,800 tons (a 1.5% increase from the previous week and a 9.5% decrease year - on - year). In November 2025, the ferrosilicon output was 471,100 tons (a 6.78% decrease from the previous month and a 7.71% decrease year - on - year) [6]. Demand - The consumption of ferrosilicon in five major steel products was 18,700 tons (a 4.5% decrease from the previous week and a 6.5% decrease year - on - year). The weekly output of five major steel products was 882,950 tons (a 3.13% decrease from the previous week and a 3.75% decrease year - on - year) [9]. Inventory - The enterprise inventory was 72,600 tons (a 1.13% increase from the previous week and a 0.76% increase year - on - year). The steel mill inventory in November was 15.8 days (an increase of 0.13 days from the previous month and an increase of 1.5 days year - on - year) [11]. Cost - The cost was stable. For example, in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Qinghai, although there were some small fluctuations in profit and cost, the raw material prices such as silica and oxidation iron scale remained unchanged in most cases. The cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia was 5,877.22 yuan/ton on December 5, 2025, a 0.23% increase from the previous week [15]. Basis - The ferrosilicon basis (Ningxia) for the 03 contract was - 24 yuan/ton, a decrease of 84 yuan/ton from the previous week. The ferrosilicon warehouse receipt quantity was 13,588 (an increase of 2,681 from the previous week and an increase of 6,720 year - on - year) [18]. Silicomanganese Supply - The weekly output of 121 independent silicomanganese enterprises was 187,900 tons (a 3.5% decrease from the previous week and a 3.6% decrease year - on - year). In November, the national silicomanganese output was 848,800 tons (a 7.3% decrease from the previous month and a 3.1% increase year - on - year) [25]. Demand - The weekly consumption of silicomanganese was 116,600 tons (a 4.2% decrease from the previous week and a 6.5% decrease year - on - year). The weekly output of five major steel products was 882,950 tons (a 3.13% decrease from the previous week and a 3.75% decrease year - on - year) [27]. Inventory - The enterprise sample inventory was 375,500 tons (a 2% increase from the previous week and an 87.7% increase year - on - year). The steel mill inventory in November was 15.8 days (an increase of 0.14 days from the previous month and an increase of 0.99 days year - on - year) [30]. Cost - The manganese ore price was strong. For example, the price of Tianjin Port Australian ore (Mn45%) was 41.5 yuan/ton - degree on December 5, 2025, a 3.75% increase from the previous week. The cost of silicomanganese in Ningxia was 5,955.19 yuan/ton, a 0.27% increase from the previous week [36]. Basis - The silicomanganese warehouse receipt quantity was 21,207 (an increase of 6,449 from the previous week and a decrease of 29,169 year - on - year). The silicomanganese basis (Inner Mongolia) for the 03 contract was 122 yuan/ton, a decrease of 112 yuan/ton from the previous week [32].