瑞达期货白糖产业日报-20251208

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report [1][2] 2. Core View of the Report - The market has diverse sugar sources, and the spot price is weak. The market is expected to remain weak in the future, and attention should be paid to demand changes [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract of sugar is 5337 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 34; the main contract position is 289,716 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 27,587 [2] - The number of sugar warehouse receipts is 181, with a month - on - month increase of 181; the net long position of the top 20 futures positions is - 52,900 lots, with a month - on - month decrease of 3,536 [2] - The total forecast of effective sugar warehouse receipts is 1,490, with a month - on - month increase of 1,309 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar (within quota) is 4,079 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 15; that of Thai sugar (within quota) is 4,127 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 16 [2] - The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) is 5,168 yuan/ton; that of Thai sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) is 5,231 yuan/ton [2] - The spot price of sugar in Kunming, Yunnan is 5,345 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 25; in Nanning, Guangxi is 5,410 yuan/ton, with no change; in Liuzhou, Guangxi is 5,485 yuan/ton, with no change [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar crop sown area is 1,480 thousand hectares, with a year - on - year increase of 60; the sown area of sugar cane in Guangxi is 840.33 thousand hectares, with a year - on - year increase of 5.24 [2] - The cumulative national sugar production is 1,116.21 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 5.49; the cumulative sales of Guangxi cane sugar is 8.94 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 593.35 [2] - The cumulative production of Yunnan cane sugar is 4.48 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 237.4; the total Brazilian sugar exports are 330.2 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 90.3 [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar (within quota) is 1,240 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 16; that of Thai sugar (within quota) is 1,192 yuan/ton [2] - The price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) is 151 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 11; that of Thai sugar (out - of - quota, 50% tariff) is 88 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 11 [2] - The monthly import volume of sugar is 75 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 20; the cumulative import volume is 390 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 74 [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly production of refined sugar is 88.3 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 34.39; the monthly production of soft drinks is 1,096.2 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 495.5 [2] 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.81%, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.07; that of at - the - money put options is 8.81%, with a month - on - month decrease of 2.06 [2] - The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 6.72%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.03; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.87%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of October 28, 2025, the non - commercial net short position of raw sugar futures was 167,419 lots, an increase of 27,018 lots from the previous week. The long position was 164,391 lots, a decrease of 957 lots from the previous week, and the short position was 331,810 lots, an increase of 26,061 lots from the previous week [2] - Brazil's sugar exports in November were 330.2 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.59%. The focus of the market is on the pressure on prices caused by the increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere, and the reduction of the sugar cane purchase price in Thailand also brings pressure to the international raw sugar market [2] 3.8 Industry Situation in China - This year's import quota is basically used up, but the import cost continues to decrease. Domestic sugar producers are worried that low - priced processed sugar next year will seize the market. The sugar - pressing speed in Guangxi is accelerating, leading to market competition [2] - As of now, 44 sugar mills in Guangxi have started production in the 25/26 crushing season, 21 less than the same period last year, with a daily sugar - cane crushing capacity of 346,000 tons, 175,500 tons less than the same period last year. 12 sugar mills in Yunnan have started production, 6 more than the same period last year [2]