碳酸锂周报：碳酸锂市场震荡回调，供增需减预期主导价格下行-20251208

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The market shifted from high - level oscillation to a decline this week, with the core driver being the shift in fundamental expectations. The market reached a consensus on the "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern in December, where supply is expected to increase by 3% month - on - month while downstream cathode material production is set to decline month - on - month. This led to the weakening of the previous low - inventory support logic and the price breaking through the key support level. Currently, the market is in an expectation - driven downward phase, and the core contradiction between bulls and bears lies in whether the increased supply can be fully absorbed by energy storage demand and the strength of cost - line support for prices [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Lithium Salt Market Introduction - Price Changes: Battery - grade lithium carbonate spot prices dropped 2.36% to 91,100 yuan/ton, and industrial - grade prices fell 2.4% to 89,650 yuan/ton. The main futures contract decreased 4.42% to 92,160 yuan/ton. In contrast, the spot prices of various types of lithium hydroxide increased, with the price of electric - carbon (coarse particles) rising 3.81% to 81,700 yuan/ton, electric - carbon (fine powder) up 3.58% to 86,900 yuan/ton, and industrial - carbon rising 4.09% to 76,400 yuan/ton [2][4]. - Premium and Discount Changes: The weekly changes in the premium and discount of lithium carbonate raw materials and enterprises were significant, with most showing a large decline [7]. 3.2 Lithium Salt Fundamentals - Supply: In December, China's lithium carbonate production is expected to increase 3% month - on - month, with the weekly capacity utilization rate remaining at a high of 75.34%. Although seasonal production cuts in salt lakes pose short - term disruptions, overall supply is abundant [2]. - Demand: Demand is differentiated. Energy storage cell production continues to grow, providing support, but the production plan of downstream cathode materials in December is set to decline month - on - month, and the growth rate of new energy vehicles has slowed, leading to concerns about a marginal weakening of demand after the peak season [2]. - Import and Export: Although no import and export data are provided, the available inventory of lithium ore port traders increased 5.56% to 95,000 tons week - on - week, indicating relatively smooth raw material supply channels. The freight rates for lithium ore transportation from South Africa, Zimbabwe, and Nigeria remained unchanged this week [2][27]. - Inventory: The number of exchange warehouse receipts increased 100.74% to 10,922 lots week - on - week, and the inventory at lithium ore ports and warehouses also increased, indicating overall inventory pressure [2][40]. - Cost and Profit: The production cost of externally purchased lithium concentrate decreased 2.5% to 97,521 yuan/ton week - on - week, but the production profit was still - 6,421 yuan/ton, with the loss widening 4.47% week - on - week, and cost support declined [2]. 3.3 Lithium Battery Fundamentals The report also briefly mentions aspects of the lithium battery industry, including the market, supply, demand, import and export, cost - profit, and recycling of cathode materials, electrolytes, and new energy vehicle production and sales. However, specific data and detailed analysis are not provided in the given content.