12月中央政治局会议简评：政策表态倾斜“存量”，债市区间运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The meeting affirmed the economic work this year, indicating that the main goals of economic and social development will be smoothly achieved, with an expected high probability of achieving the 5% GDP growth target this year. It also set the direction for next year's economic work, emphasizing "seeking progress while maintaining stability and improving quality and efficiency", and prioritizing the activation and utilization of existing resources and the improvement of quality and efficiency [1]. - The macro - policy orientation will continue this year's overall direction, with an active and expansionary fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy. It also emphasizes the integrated effect of existing and incremental policies and increasing counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment [1]. - Expanding domestic demand remains the top priority, and it is necessary to better coordinate domestic economic work and international economic and trade struggles, paying attention to international peripheral disturbance risks [2]. - Continue to increase scientific and technological innovation to lead the development of new - quality productivity, focusing on basic research, key core technology research, and promoting the digital and green transformation of traditional industries [3]. - The meeting did not mention real estate, and "systemic risks" were not mentioned in the risk prevention section, indicating that the current real estate market is weak but has passed the large - decline period, and the government's support for old driving forces may be reduced [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pre - meeting Situation and Next - year's Direction - This year's economic achievements include overall stable and progressive economic operation, the steady development of new - quality productivity, new steps in reform and opening - up, positive progress in risk resolution in key areas, and stronger people's livelihood security. The 5% GDP growth target is expected to be achieved. Next year, the focus will be on stability, quality improvement, and the activation of existing resources [1]. 3.2 Policy Orientation - Macro - policy: Continue the current active fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, emphasize the integrated effect of existing and incremental policies, and increase counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustment. Incremental policies may be more refined [1]. - Domestic demand policy: Expand domestic demand, continue to optimize supply, and better coordinate domestic economic work and international economic and trade struggles. Subsidies will be inclined to service consumption, and supply optimization will be promoted [2]. - Innovation policy: Continue to drive the development of new - quality productivity through innovation, strengthen basic research and key core technology research, and promote the digital and green transformation of traditional industries [3]. - Risk - prevention policy: Actively and steadily resolve risks in key areas, but do not mention "systemic risks". The real estate market is not mentioned, indicating a reduced focus on the old driving forces [4]. 3.3 Bond Market Impact - The meeting's statement had a limited impact on the bond market. The yield of the 10 - year active bond showed a slight increase. More policy directions need to be关注 the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference. Historically, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield has a higher probability of declining 5 - 10 trading days after the December meeting, and the probability of a continuous increase in medium - and long - term interest rates is low. Attention should be paid to the allocation value above the 1.85% key point [4].