市场情绪降温短期震荡整理：能源化工周报—PX&PTA-20251208

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report 2.1 Weekly Summary - PX prices were high in the first half of the week and then declined due to the cooling of gasoline - blending speculation. The market sentiment was strong at the beginning of the week, but there was no substantial positive news in the second half, and the PX supply was not affected. The decline in PX prices was also related to the smaller - than - expected reduction in South Korea's PX exports to China in November [9]. - PTA prices followed the cost trend and declined. Although it rose with the increase of crude oil and PX prices before, its fundamentals did not change significantly, and the downstream polyester operating rate remained at about 89%. Currently, the PTA export outlook is good, and the continuous inventory reduction provides support [9]. 2.2 Market Forecast - Crude oil prices are likely to fluctuate within a narrow range due to the unclear geopolitical situation. For PX, the gasoline - blending logic has been disproven, and attention should be paid to the operation of South Korean PX plants and Zhejiang Petrochemical's maintenance plan next year. For PTA, the inventory will change from slight reduction to balance, and the processing fee will remain low this year. The short - term demand for polyester is relatively stable, and there is positive news in the export market, but it is not enough to reduce inventory. The weaving market shows increased activity in new product development for foreign trade orders, but the profit margin is compressed [10]. - Overall, PX will oscillate at a high level in the range of 6,750 - 6,950 yuan/ton, and PTA will also oscillate at a high level in the range of 4,600 - 4,800 yuan/ton. The recommended strategy is to stay on the sidelines [10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price Situation 3.1.1 PX - PX futures declined significantly over the weekend as the gasoline - blending speculation faded. From November 28th to December 5th, the closing price of the PX main contract decreased by 20 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.29%, while the settlement price increased by 84 yuan/ton, a change of 1.24%. From December 1st - 5th, the average basis of the main contract was - 185 yuan/ton, and the average domestic spot price of PX was 6,700.80 yuan/ton, a 2.09% increase from the previous period [13][15][17]. - The price of naphtha in December was 564 dollars/ton, PX CFR China was 848 dollars/ton, and Sinopec's PX contract settlement price was 7,000 yuan/ton (listed price) [18]. 3.1.2 PTA - PTA futures fluctuated around the cost recently. From November 28th to December 5th, the closing price of the PTA main contract decreased by 22 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.47%, and the settlement price increased by 28 yuan/ton, a change of 0.60%. The average basis of the main contract from November 24th - 28th was - 33.20 yuan/ton. The average weekly CIF price of PTA in the Chinese market was 594 dollars/ton, a 1.71% increase from the previous period, and the average spot price in the East China market was 4,696.4 yuan/ton, a 1.48% increase [19][21][24]. 3.2 Device Operation Situation 3.2.1 PX Devices - Domestic PX devices: Many PX plants in different regions have different operating loads. For example, Ningbo Daxie operates at 70 - 80% capacity, and some plants of Zhejiang Petrochemical, Shenghong Refining & Chemical, etc. have specific load - related operations. The domestic PX device load slightly decreased from 88.92% in the period of November 24th - 28th to 88.52% in the period of December 1st - 5th [29][32]. - Asian other PX devices: PX plants in various Asian countries and regions have different operating conditions, such as Pertamina in Indonesia, Exxon Mobil in Singapore, etc., with some plants having maintenance, shutdown, or restart situations [30][31]. 3.2.2 PTA Devices - Some PTA plants are under maintenance, such as Yisheng Dahua's 225 - million - ton device has been shut down since August 8th, and the restart time is undetermined. The weekly operating rate of PTA devices increased by 1.89%, and there is an enhanced expectation of inventory accumulation from January to February next year [35][36]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Cost - Crude oil: Geopolitical uncertainties support the market. On December 5th, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was 60.08 dollars/barrel, a 1.53 - dollar increase from November 28th, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil was 63.75 dollars/barrel, a 1.37 - dollar increase [41][43]. - Naphtha: The economic efficiency continued to be compressed this week, and the East - West arbitrage spread remained high. The weekly average price of naphtha CFR Japan was 571.43 dollars/ton, and the weekly average production profit was 66.16 dollars/ton [47][49]. 3.3.2 Supply - PX processing margin: The PXN weekly average was 284.78 yuan/ton, a 8.08% change from the previous period. The PX - MX remained at a high level, with a weekly average of 116.50 yuan/ton [50][52]. - PTA processing fee: The average spot processing fee of PTA from December 1st - 5th was 169.33 yuan/ton, lower than the previous week's 197.35 yuan/ton. The processing fee is expected to improve next year [54][56]. - Inventory: As of December 5th, the PTA social inventory was 3.804 million tons, a 67,000 - ton decrease from the previous week. The inventory days of PTA factories and polyester factories increased. The domestic PTA manufacturers' average inventory usage days were 3.92 days, and the polyester factories' raw material inventory days were 7.50 days as of December 4th [59][61][65]. 3.3.3 Demand - Polyester: The average market prices of polyester products such as polyester filament and polyester staple fiber changed. The average weekly polyester production and sales were estimated to be 50%. The average weekly load of polyester factories was 89.11%, and the average weekly load of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 71.20%. As of December 4th, the filament inventory increased [67][69][72]. - Weaving: The domestic weaving market is in the off - season. The order volume of weaving and dyeing factories is low, and the inventory pressure of grey fabrics is increasing. Although the activity of new product development for foreign trade orders has increased, the profit margin of enterprises is compressed. As of December 4th, the opening rates of weaving machines in different regions changed to different extents [82][84].