银河期货苹果日报-20251208

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - This year, apple production has declined, the high - quality fruit rate is poor, and storage is more difficult. Market expectations are that cold - storage inventory data will likely be low. The effective inventory is likely to be low, making the apple fundamentals strong. Apple prices are supported by the relatively poor quality of new apples, and demand is average. It is expected that the apple market will mainly fluctuate at a high level. For trading strategies in arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see. [6][7][8] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market Information - Spot Prices: The Fuji apple price index is 109.06, up 1.15 from the previous trading day. The prices of some apple varieties such as Luochuan semi - commodity paper - bagged 70, Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 remained unchanged. The average wholesale price of 6 kinds of fruits is 7.51, up 0.10 from the previous day. [2] - Futures Prices: For AP01, the price is 9544, down 11. AP05 is 9506, down 133. AP10 is 8477, down 57. The spreads between different contracts also changed, e.g., AP01 - AP05 is 38, up 122. [2] - Basis: The basis of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 against different contracts also changed, such as Qixia first - and second - grade 80 - AP01 is - 1344, up 11. [2] 2. Market News and Views - Transaction Logic: This year, apple production decreased, the high - quality fruit rate was poor, and storage was difficult. As of November 27, 2025, the cold - storage inventory in the main apple - producing areas was 766.75 million tons, 6.41 million tons less than the previous week and 79.5 million tons less than the same period last year. The cold - storage apple inventory peak this year is at a low level in the same period over the years, and the apple quality is relatively poor, so the effective inventory is likely to be low, and the apple fundamentals are strong. [6] - Transaction Strategy: - Single - side: Due to the relatively poor quality of new apples, apple prices are supported, but demand is average. It is expected that the apple market will mainly fluctuate at a high level. [7] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see. [8] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see. [9] - Other Data: - As of December 3, 2025, the cold - storage inventory in the main apple - producing areas was 763.51 million tons, 3.24 million tons less than the previous week. [9] - In October 2025, the fresh apple import volume was 0.31 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 68.09% and a year - on - year increase of 8.54%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative import volume was 11.12 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.18%. In October 2025, the fresh apple export volume was about 8.04 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 13.51% and a year - on - year decrease of 17.04%. [9] - The apple market in the producing areas was basically stable, with little price change. During the weekend, the prices of low - cost apples in some areas such as Liaoning were weak, but the price range changed little. The market arrivals were okay, and the mainstream prices remained stable. [9] - The spot price of Luochuan apples in Shaanxi: The mainstream transaction price of semi - commodity apples above 70 in cold storage is 3.8 - 4.2 yuan per catty. The cold - storage trading volume is not large. There are Northeast merchants purchasing apples above 80, with the price of farmers' apples at 4.5 - 5.0 yuan per catty and merchants' apples at 5.5 - 6.0 yuan per catty. [9] 3. Relevant Attachments - The report provides 10 figures, including the prices of Qixia first - and second - grade paper - bagged 80 apples, Luochuan semi - commodity paper - bagged 70 apples, AP contract basis, spreads between different AP contracts, apple arrivals in some markets, 6 - fruit prices, national cold - storage apple inventory, and national cold - storage apple out - bound volume. The data sources are mainly Galaxy Futures, Steel Union, and Wind Information. [11][14][17][20][25]