棉花、棉纱日报-20251208

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The medium - to short - term domestic cotton price is expected to be range - bound. Zhengzhou cotton is likely to be oscillating with a slight upward trend, while US cotton is expected to be range - bound in the future. For the cotton yarn industry, the overall trading atmosphere is light, and subsequent attention should be paid to the trend of Zhengzhou cotton and downstream replenishment [4][5][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - Futures Disk: For cotton futures contracts, the closing price of CF01 is 13750 with 0% change, CF05 is 13725 with a 5 - point increase, and CF09 is 13845 with a 10 - point decrease. For cotton yarn futures contracts, CY01 closes at 19775 with a 20 - point decrease, CY05 at 19905 with a 75 - point decrease, and CY09 at 20085 with no change. The trading volume and open interest of each contract also have corresponding changes [2] - Spot Price: The CCIndex3128B is 15009 yuan/ton with an 11 - point increase, Cot A is 74.20 cents/pound (compared with 74.70 previously), and other spot prices such as polyester staple fiber, viscose staple fiber, etc., also have different price changes [2] - Price Spread: The cotton inter - period spreads (e.g., 1 - 5 month, 5 - 9 month, 9 - 1 month) and cotton yarn inter - period spreads have corresponding price changes. The cross - variety spreads (CY01 - CF01, CY05 - CF05, CY09 - CF09) and internal - external spreads (internal - external cotton spread, internal - external yarn spread) also show different changes [2] 3.2 Market News and Views - Cotton Market News: As of October 28, 2025, the ICE cotton futures fund net long ratio was - 25.04% (a week - on - week increase of 2.76 percentage points). In November 2025, Brazilian cotton exports were 402500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 37% and a year - on - year increase of 34%, with China, India, and Bangladesh being the top three importers. Cotton trading improved slightly during the decline of Zhengzhou cotton with reduced positions, and the short - to medium - term domestic cotton price may be range - bound [4] - Trading Logic: In November, with the large - scale listing of new cotton, there may be selling hedging pressure. Although this year's cotton production has a bumper harvest, the expected increase may be less than previously thought. The demand side has entered the off - season after the peak season. Considering that the current cotton sales progress is at a high level in the same period over the years, Zhengzhou cotton is likely to be oscillating with a slight upward trend [5] - Trading Strategy: For the single - side trading, the future US cotton is expected to be range - bound, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be oscillating with a slight upward trend. For arbitrage and options, the suggestion is to wait and see [6][7] - Cotton Yarn Industry News: The recent overall trading atmosphere is light, with few new orders. The price of pure cotton yarn remains stable, but the cash flow of inland spinning mills is affected by the rising cotton spot price, and some spinning mills have reduced their operating rates and inventory has increased. Future attention should be paid to the trend of Zhengzhou cotton and downstream replenishment [9] 3.3 Options - Option Data: On November 24, 2025, for option contracts such as CF601C13400.CZC, CF601P13000.CZC, and CF601P12400.CZC, details such as the closing price, price change rate, implied volatility (IV), and other greek values are provided. The 10 - day HV of cotton yesterday was 6.4492, with a slight increase in volatility compared to the previous day [11] - Option Strategy: The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton yesterday was 0.7339 for positions and 0.6421 for trading volume. Today, the trading volumes of both call and put options have decreased. The suggestion for options trading is to wait and see [12][13]