鸡蛋日报-20251208

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term de - capacity speed is expected to be gentle. Near - month contracts are expected to fluctuate within a range, and for the far - month contracts in April and May, long positions can be considered to be built at low prices as the supply pressure eases [7] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures and Spot Market Data - Futures Market: JD01 closed at 3153, up 36 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3637, up 48; JD09 closed at 4130, up 41. The 01 - 05 spread was - 484, down 12; the 05 - 09 spread was - 493, up 7; the 09 - 01 spread was 977, up 5. The ratios of 01, 05, 09 eggs to corn and soybeans also had corresponding changes [2] - Spot Market: The main producing area average price was 2.95 yuan/jin, up 0.03 yuan/jin from the previous day, and the main selling area average price was 3.22 yuan/jin, unchanged. Most of the national mainstream prices remained stable, and the prices of Beijing and other regions were also stable. The average price of eliminated chickens was 3.88 yuan/jin, unchanged [2][4] 2. Fundamental Information - Egg Production and Sales: In November, the national in - laying hen inventory was 1.352 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, an increase of 5.5% year - on - year, and lower than expected. The egg sales volume in representative selling areas in the week of December 5 was 7115 tons, a decrease of 4% compared with the previous week [5][6] - Chicken Culling: In the week of December 5, the national main - producing area egg - laying hen culling volume was 20.82 million, a decrease of 5% from the previous week, and the average culling age was 488 days, a decrease of 1 day from the previous week [5] - Inventory and Profit: As of December 5, the production - link average inventory was 1.06 days, an increase of 0.04 days from the previous week, and the circulation - link average inventory was 1.14 days, an increase of 0.07 days. As of November 21, the weekly average egg profit was - 0.26 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.11 yuan/jin from the previous week [6] 3. Trading Logic - The recent increase in the amount of eliminated chickens has alleviated the previous supply pressure. It is expected that the short - term de - capacity speed will be gentle. Near - month contracts are expected to fluctuate within a range, and far - month contracts in April and May can consider building long positions at low prices as the supply pressure eases [7] 4. Trading Strategies - Single - side: It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term. Long positions in far - month contracts can be considered to be built at low prices [8] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [9] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [10]