煤焦日报：供应压力扰动，煤焦弱势运行-20251208

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For coke, as of the week ending December 5, the combined daily average coke output of all - sample independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 1.1115 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,700 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 26,000 tons. The daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills nationwide was 2.323 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 23,800 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 3,100 tons. Recently, upstream coal mines have offered concessions to coking and steel enterprises. Some coking enterprises have turned losses into profits, while most steel mills are still in the red, resulting in a phased pattern of increased supply and decreased demand for coke. In the short term, the supply pressure of coking coal drags down the weak operation of coke futures. However, considering the potential macro - level positive news from the Politburo economic meeting in December and the expected production cuts at year - end coal mines, the sustainability of the coke price decline remains to be seen. The main downside risk lies in the unexpectedly loose supply of coking coal [5][37]. - For coking coal, as of the week ending December 5, the daily average output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines nationwide was 754,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 57,000 tons. At the import end, the cumulative customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the 288 port in November was 29,240 vehicles, a 38.5% increase compared to October, and the Mongolian coal import volume in November is expected to reach a new high this year. On the demand side, the combined daily average coke output of sample coking plants and steel mills was 1.1115 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,700 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 26,000 tons. Overall, the increase in imported coal supply drives the weak operation of coking coal. However, considering the expected macro - level positive news from the Politburo economic meeting in December and the expected production cuts at year - end coal mines, the sustainability of the current decline in coking coal futures remains to be seen. Attention can be paid to the actual production situation of coal mines [6][38]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on December 8 to analyze and study the economic work for 2026 and reviewed the "Regulations on the CPC's Leadership over the Comprehensive Advancement of the Rule of Law." The meeting noted that this year is of great significance in the process of Chinese - style modernization. The economy is generally stable with progress, new - quality productivity is developing steadily, and positive progress has been made in risk mitigation in key areas [8]. - On December 8, the price of coking coal in the Linfen Anze market remained stable. The ex - factory price of low - sulfur prime coking clean coal (A9, S0.5, V20, G85) was 1,500 yuan/ton, including cash and taxes [9]. Spot Market - For coke, the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port was 1,620 yuan/ton, a week - on - week and month - on - month decrease of 2.99%, a year - on - year decrease of 4.14%, and a decrease of 9.50% compared to the same period. The ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade coke at Qingdao Port was 1,460 yuan/ton, a week - on - week and month - on - month increase of 0.69%, a year - on - year decrease of 9.88%, and a decrease of 10.98% compared to the same period [10]. - For coking coal, the price of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimao Port was 1,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week and month - on - month decrease of 6.25%, a year - on - year increase of 1.69%, and a decrease of 9.77% compared to the same period. The price of Australian - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,570 yuan/ton, with no change week - on - week, month - on - month, and compared to the same period, but a year - on - year increase of 5.37%. The price of Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port was 1,650 yuan/ton, a week - on - week and month - on - month decrease of 3.51%, a year - on - year increase of 7.84%, and a decrease of 2.37% compared to the same period [10]. Futures Market - For the coke futures active contract, the closing price was 1,537 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5.79%. The highest price was 1,600 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,523 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 25,408 lots, an increase of 3,949 lots, and the open interest was 28,088 lots, an increase of 1,550 lots [14]. - For the coking coal futures active contract, the closing price was 1,093.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.14%. The highest price was 1,138 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,082.5 yuan/ton, the trading volume was 1,129,532 lots, an increase of 343,693 lots, and the open interest was 493,639 lots, an increase of 24,153 lots [14]. Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts related to the inventory of coke and coking coal, including the inventory of 230 independent coking plants, port inventory, and the inventory of 247 steel - mill coking plants for coke; and the inventory at mine mouths, ports, and in 247 sample steel mills for coking coal. It also includes charts on domestic steel - mill production, Shanghai terminal wire and bar procurement, coal - washing plant production, and coking - plant operation [15][22][29]. Market Outlook - The analysis of coke and coking coal market outlooks is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing the current supply - demand situation, the impact of supply pressure on prices, and the uncertainty regarding price decline sustainability due to potential macro - level positive news and expected coal - mine production cuts [37][38].