钢材&铁矿石日报：市场情绪趋弱，钢矿承压回落-20251208

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar weakened, with a daily decline of 1.30%. Supply has dropped to a low level, providing price support, but demand is also weakening. The fundamentals have not improved substantially, and the upward driving force is questionable. However, the valuation is relatively low, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to steel mill production [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil weakened, with a daily decline of 1.02%. The supply pressure has limited relief, and demand continues to weaken. The fundamentals are weak, and the price continues to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is the low valuation, and it is expected to continue the trend of bottom - seeking in a volatile manner. Attention should be paid to steel mill production [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated and declined, with a daily decline of 1.14%. The position transfer was completed, and the volume and open interest contracted. The previous positive factors supported the price to return to a high level, but demand is weakening while supply remains high. The fundamentals of the iron ore market continue to weaken, and it is expected that the price will decline under pressure in an oscillatory manner. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - The Politburo meeting emphasized guiding next year's economic work with Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, implementing more proactive and effective macro - policies, and promoting high - quality development [7]. - In the first 11 months of 2025, China's total goods trade import and export value was 41.21 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%. Exports were 24.46 trillion yuan, an increase of 6.2%, and imports were 16.75 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.2%. In November, the trade growth rate rebounded, with a total import and export value of 3.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.1% [8]. - In November 2025, China exported 998.0 million tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 2.0%. From January to November, the cumulative steel export was 10,771.7 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. In November, China imported 49.6 million tons of steel, a month - on - month decrease of 1.4%. From January to November, the cumulative steel import was 554.1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.5%. In November, China imported 11,054.0 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%. From January to November, the cumulative import was 113,920.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4% [9]. 2. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and other products mostly declined. For example, the national average price of rebar dropped by 17 yuan, and that of hot - rolled coil dropped by 15 yuan. The prices of some iron ore products also decreased, such as the 61.5% PB powder in Shandong ports, which dropped by 4 yuan [10]. 3. Futures Market - The closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coil, and iron ore all declined, with decreases of 1.30%, 1.02%, and 1.14% respectively. The trading volume and open interest of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased, while those of iron ore decreased [12]. 4. Related Charts - There are multiple charts showing the inventory, price trends, and production situations of steel and iron ore, including the weekly and total inventory changes of rebar and hot - rolled coil, the inventory of iron ore in ports and steel mills, and the production indicators of steel mills such as blast furnace operating rates and capacity utilization rates [14][19][30]. 5.后市研判 - For rebar, both supply and demand continue to weaken. The weekly output decreased by 16.77 million tons, and the weekly apparent demand decreased by 10.96 million tons. The fundamentals have not improved substantially, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to steel mill production [40]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply - demand pattern is weak. The weekly output decreased by 4.70 million tons, but the inventory is high. Demand continues to decline, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 5.36 million tons. It is expected to continue to seek the bottom in a volatile manner. Attention should be paid to steel mill production [40]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern continues to weaken. The end - user demand of iron ore is declining, and the supply remains high. It is expected that the price will decline under pressure in an oscillatory manner. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [41].