尿素周报2025.12.08：涨价后下游补货放缓-20251208

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the domestic urea spot market price changed from strong to weak. The supply of urea decreased periodically, with the daily output expected to fluctuate around 19 - 200,000 tons. The demand side saw a steady increase in the operating rate of compound fertilizer, and the inventory of urea enterprises continued to decline. In the short term, the follow - up of downstream replenishment slowed down after the price increase, and the cost support weakened due to the decline in coal prices. The futures price may have a periodic correction risk. For the UR2601 contract, attention should be paid to the support level around 1600 - 1630 yuan/ton. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the sustainability of demand follow - up and export conditions [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - to - Week Viewpoint Summary - Supply: Supply decreased periodically, with a weekly urea output of 1.3851 million tons (-2.25%), including 1.1362 million tons of coal - based urea and 0.2489 million tons of gas - based urea, and an average daily output of 198,000 tons. Several gas - head urea enterprises' devices are planned to stop production [5][21]. - Demand: The operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 40.53% (a week - on - week increase of 3.47%), and the finished product inventory was 683,900 tons (a week - on - week increase of 20,100 tons). The operating rate of melamine was 61.66% (a week - on - week increase of 0.86%) [34]. - Inventory: Urea enterprise inventory was 1.2905 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 73,400 tons. Port inventory was 105,000 tons (a week - on - week increase of 5,000 tons). The mainstream pre - collection days of urea enterprises were 7.35 days (a week - on - week increase of 0.7 days) [31]. - Cost and Profit: This week, the sentiment in the coal market weakened, and the profit of urea increased compared with the previous week [5]. - Basis and Spread: The 1 - 5 spread was strongly running, and the 01 basis strengthened slightly [5]. 3.2 Variety Details Decomposition - Domestic Urea Market Price: The domestic urea market price was strongly running this week, and charts of market prices in Shandong, Shanxi, Henan, Hebei, Anhui, and Northeast China from 2021 to 2025 were provided [7][8]. - International Urea Market Price: The international urea market price decreased, and charts of international urea prices (CFR Brazil, FOB Baltic, FOB Iran, FOB China) from 2019 to 2025 were provided [11][12]. - Supply: Supply decreased periodically. The weekly urea output decreased by 2.25%, and several gas - head urea enterprises' devices were planned to stop production, such as Sichuan Lutianhua Co., Ltd., Chongqing Jianfeng Chemical Co., Ltd., etc. [17][21]. - Inventory: Upstream urea enterprise inventory decreased continuously on a week - on - week basis. Port inventory increased slightly, and the number of days of enterprises' pending orders increased slightly [27][31]. - Demand: The operating rate of compound fertilizer increased steadily, and the finished product inventory accumulated slightly. The operating rate of melamine increased slightly [33][34]. - Raw Material End: This week, the sentiment in the coal market weakened, and charts of prices of various types of coal from 2021 to 2025 were provided [36][37]. - Spread Analysis: The 1 - 5 spread was strongly running, and the 01 basis strengthened slightly. Charts of 1 - 5 spreads and 01 basis from 2021 to 2025 were provided [44][45]. - Urea - Related Product Spreads: Charts of spreads between liquid ammonia and urea, ammonium chloride and urea, etc. from 2021 to 2025 were provided [50][53].